It's a period of rapid, destabilizing change in college football, so cataclysmic and involving such big dollars that it threatens to destroy the game altogether.
First in a 9-0 decision the Supreme Court ruled that players had the right to earn money from Name, Image and Likeness.
In just a month a few players have already signed six-figure deals, and Nick Saban revealed his quarterback will be making close to a million dollars.
Over 1400 players have entered the transfer portal this season, an average of 12 per team. Tennessee lost 37. Close to a thousand players are still in purgatory, yet to sign with a new team.
On Wednesday a report from the Houston Chronicle upended media days by revealing Texas and Oklahoma are negotiating to exit the Big 12 and become part of a 16-team SEC, leaving the Big 12 with just 8 members and no high-profile, media-draw team in football.
One of these changes alone would be hard to deal with, but all of it taken together and happening so fast, it shakes the game to its foundations.
Dave Bartoo of the College Football Matrix said, "CFB's adhd is killing me. Can't sit still for a minute. Always chasing the next $. IMO what made CFB was traditions & rivalries.Those take time. Lots of it. But with constant change, we are not allowing for that time. We're gonna look back one day and go 'Shit, where'd it all go?' "
The SEC's power move sets off a chain reaction with other conferences scrambling to keep up. In December they announced a move from CBS to ESPN, a big TV deal that will pay them 3 billion dollars over 10 years, far more than any other league's existing contracts. The PAC-12's partnerships with Fox and ESPN expire in 2023.
At the same time, cable TV is dying in its hold over viewership. Streaming services dilute and diversify the market. It will be tough to garner a big enough deal to stay competitive and stay relevant.
Relevance and survival. Those are the big, long-term issues here. Ten of the biggest brands in college football will be concentrated in one market. What are Oregon and the PAC-12 going to do?
They have to move quickly, because every conference and many teams will be scrambling to preserve themselves and line up an alliance that works for an uncertain future.
The solution out here seems obvious. History and tradition, as Bartoo suggests, is the heart of college football. Without it you have the XFL or the Arena League.
What the PAC-12 should do is immediately move to join forces with the Big Ten, their historical partner and Rose Bowl opponent, an alliance with a rich history that goes back to 1947, when the Granddaddy first started featuring a Big Ten-PAC-12 matchup.
They should move to form a 32-team super conference that features Notre Dame, Ohio State, Michigan, Oregon and USC. Call it the Big PAC.
The PAC-12 presidents need to get over themselves as far as academic snobbishness. In the West, they need to add the biggest available markets and most viable programs, BYU and Boise State, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. To the Big Ten, add ND, Iowa State, Cincinnati and Louisville.New PAC-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff has a monumental challenge in front of him. But that is the right move. Go big or become irrelevant. Form The Big PACK.
I think that in under a couple of years, NIL will be very organized by the big universities like Alabama, Texas, tOSU etc and along with their big money boosters, bidding war for top athletes will begin whether legal or illegal. Oregon has Phil Knight who is a fabulous benefactor but how long will Phil Knight be with us?
ReplyDeleteI agree. It really does seem that NIL will become a funnel for boosters, one that creates an unrestrained free market for top talent. Bryce Young will make close to a million dollars this year. Chances are the top quarterback prospect of 2023 will get three times that.
DeleteGreat question about Oregon post-Knight. I think it's really important they achieve a playoff run before he dies, in order to expand their donor base. Plus he deserves one.