Regardless of the outcome of NCAA investigations, Oregon made a grievous mistake in soliciting the aid of Will Lyles in their Texas recruiting efforts. He has brought the program 90 yards of the wrong kind of attention.
On Fox Sports News.com former New York Times reporter Thayer Evans has written a four-part series on street agents and 7-on-7 camps and their growing influence in college football, and Oregon, Lyles and Brian Flenory are heavily featured.
Insightful writing has a power all its own. There's a direct line from Thomas Paine to Upton Sinclair to Woodward and Bernstein, and dogged reporters and impassioned wordsmiths who follow a story relentlessly change things. The NCAA can't let go of this, because several talented people are hot on the trail and unlikely to let them.
Lyles is a bad guy. He ingratiated himself with athletes and families for profit, leaving a trail of disgust and distrust among high school coaches, and the persistent stench of corruption on every recruiting deal he ever brokered. He charmed the kids, and sometimes their parents and relatives, and got them scholarships, but always managed to take a chunk of something for himself.
Yesterday's story from Evans included the revelation that Lyles accompanied Oregon running backs coach Gary Campbell on recruiting trips to Houston-area high schools. Gary Campbell is a very good man, but Lyles isn't. Duck fans cannot imagine a more unfortunate association.
There are two immutable laws of human behavior. We become what we think about, and we tend to become like the people we're around. Will Lyles is a corrupt opportunist who promotes himself by any means necessary. He capitalized on the trust of impressionable kids, taking credit for the attention their talent had earned them, taking a commission on scholarships their abilities made a virtual certainty to begin with. Lache Seastrunk had dazzling speed and elusiveness. Five minutes of video would have convinced any coach to make him an offer. Lyles had the audacity to move in with his mother, oversee the boy's recruiting, and pocket 25 grand for his trouble. He ran a variation of the same play with Trevon Randle and a host of other Houston-area prep stars, collecting fees from several of the nation's foremost football schools in the process. A sweet gig for slick guy with the uncanny instincts of a pimp.
Sinclair brought a wave of change to the American meat-packing industry, partly because Teddy Roosevelt was reading him over his breakfast sausage. The revelations regarding Oregon's partner in Texas ought make college football fans similarly nauseous, and spark an analogous progressive movement in the sport.
Monday, March 14, 2011
Sunday, March 13, 2011
State of the Beaver Nation: Yes We Can, but We Probably Won't
Beaver Nation lies in danger of being downgraded to a principality or a minor fiefdom.
With Quizz Rodgers prepping for the NFL draft, and James Rodgers back in Texas recovering from his second knee surgery in six months, the Beavers are faced with the stark reality that the Las Vegas and San Francisco bowls may soon represent the glory years. No amount of awe-shucks optimism can color things a rosy shade of orange: the cupboard is bare, hopes are dim, and the upside for 2011 is looking like 4-8. Colorado and Washington State could have company in the conference basement.
With the loss of both Rodgers brothers, plus the strongest man in the history of the NFL draft combine, and with number one quarterback Ryan Katz doubtful for spring practice, suffering from a slow-healing bone in his throwing hand, the outlook is grim. Slotback Jordan Bishop also has a nagging ankle injury.
The Beavers have trouble filling their stadium and balancing the books. As early as October of 2009, athletic director Bob DeCarolis lamented the lack of attendance and donor enthusiasm among Beaver fans, and losing will only make it worse. He infamously told the Oregonian's Paul Buker:
"There's still uncertainty," De Carolis said Wednesday, expressing frustration in particular over attendance at football games, "no doubt about it. The free fall has stopped but I think it's going to be a challenge."
De Carolis did not intend to call out Oregon State fans, but he came very close when discussing the school's inability to fill 45,674-seat Reser Stadium.
"I've never seen a state like this, where it's one or the other, you're a Duck or you're a Beaver," De Carolis said. "Well, if (OSU alumni) are so proud of that, why is it so hard to keep this thing going? We have a hell of a football product -- a hell of a football product -- and we can't sell out the stadium?"
"Where are all the Beaver fans?"
In 2011, a lot of them are likely to be disguised as empty seats.
With Quizz Rodgers prepping for the NFL draft, and James Rodgers back in Texas recovering from his second knee surgery in six months, the Beavers are faced with the stark reality that the Las Vegas and San Francisco bowls may soon represent the glory years. No amount of awe-shucks optimism can color things a rosy shade of orange: the cupboard is bare, hopes are dim, and the upside for 2011 is looking like 4-8. Colorado and Washington State could have company in the conference basement.
With the loss of both Rodgers brothers, plus the strongest man in the history of the NFL draft combine, and with number one quarterback Ryan Katz doubtful for spring practice, suffering from a slow-healing bone in his throwing hand, the outlook is grim. Slotback Jordan Bishop also has a nagging ankle injury.
The Beavers have trouble filling their stadium and balancing the books. As early as October of 2009, athletic director Bob DeCarolis lamented the lack of attendance and donor enthusiasm among Beaver fans, and losing will only make it worse. He infamously told the Oregonian's Paul Buker:
"There's still uncertainty," De Carolis said Wednesday, expressing frustration in particular over attendance at football games, "no doubt about it. The free fall has stopped but I think it's going to be a challenge."
De Carolis did not intend to call out Oregon State fans, but he came very close when discussing the school's inability to fill 45,674-seat Reser Stadium.
"I've never seen a state like this, where it's one or the other, you're a Duck or you're a Beaver," De Carolis said. "Well, if (OSU alumni) are so proud of that, why is it so hard to keep this thing going? We have a hell of a football product -- a hell of a football product -- and we can't sell out the stadium?"
"Where are all the Beaver fans?"
In 2011, a lot of them are likely to be disguised as empty seats.
A Question from the Blog Housekeeping Department
The Duck Stops Here is currently in preliminary talks with the Bloguin network regarding a change of hosting platform and a website redesign.
The first year of publication has been rewarding and exciting, and sometimes daunting. Bloguin has some exciting promotional tools and could give the site a more professional look.
Ultimately, though, the Blog belongs to the readers. If you don't come, there's nothing to build. Any thoughts or observations on the prospective change would be very appreciated. Please send your comments, or an email to duckfanmo@yahoo.com.
The first year of publication has been rewarding and exciting, and sometimes daunting. Bloguin has some exciting promotional tools and could give the site a more professional look.
Ultimately, though, the Blog belongs to the readers. If you don't come, there's nothing to build. Any thoughts or observations on the prospective change would be very appreciated. Please send your comments, or an email to duckfanmo@yahoo.com.
The Voice of Two Crying Out in the Wilderness
ESPN's Tom Farrey and Paula Lavigne have a very careful examination of amateurism and the NCAA this weekend. Here's a excerpt:
University of Texas football brought in $93.5 million in 2009, with quarterback Colt McCoy leading the Longhorns to the national championship game. Punch the numbers. NFL players get 58 percent of league revenues. If McCoy and his 80 teammates on scholarship were to divvy up that share of the pie, the average cut would be $672,676.
Instead, each athlete, by NCAA rule, could receive no more than tuition, fees, room, board and books -- valued at $18,172 for in-state students, $35,924 if for out-of-state.
"I personally think that it's the greatest injustice in American sports," said Andrew Schwarz, a Bay Area antitrust economist who has studied college sports finances. "We have these people that everyone loves to watch on TV and in person. We adore them, we adulate them, but we do not let them benefit from all of the money that they generate in anywhere near the way they would if there was a market system in place."
The athletes generate huge amounts of money for their schools, and many of them come from disadvantaged backgrounds. The temptation to turn some of their notoriety into cash is great, particularly when the school can sell replicas of their jersey for fifty dollars a pop.
The piece is accompanied by a full-length video feature with some illuminating interviews and perspectives.
Would a more equitable system reduce the temptation to cheat? Many NCAA Division I football programs generate surpluses in the tens of millions of dollars.
Farrey and Lavigne lay out a compelling and thorough case for examination and reform.
University of Texas football brought in $93.5 million in 2009, with quarterback Colt McCoy leading the Longhorns to the national championship game. Punch the numbers. NFL players get 58 percent of league revenues. If McCoy and his 80 teammates on scholarship were to divvy up that share of the pie, the average cut would be $672,676.
Instead, each athlete, by NCAA rule, could receive no more than tuition, fees, room, board and books -- valued at $18,172 for in-state students, $35,924 if for out-of-state.
"I personally think that it's the greatest injustice in American sports," said Andrew Schwarz, a Bay Area antitrust economist who has studied college sports finances. "We have these people that everyone loves to watch on TV and in person. We adore them, we adulate them, but we do not let them benefit from all of the money that they generate in anywhere near the way they would if there was a market system in place."
The athletes generate huge amounts of money for their schools, and many of them come from disadvantaged backgrounds. The temptation to turn some of their notoriety into cash is great, particularly when the school can sell replicas of their jersey for fifty dollars a pop.
The piece is accompanied by a full-length video feature with some illuminating interviews and perspectives.
Would a more equitable system reduce the temptation to cheat? Many NCAA Division I football programs generate surpluses in the tens of millions of dollars.
Farrey and Lavigne lay out a compelling and thorough case for examination and reform.
Thursday, March 10, 2011
Pro Day and Other Notes from the News
Rob Moseley and Gil Brandt have reports from the Oregon Pro Day, and two things stand out.
First, Oregon has achieved tremendous success, two straight conference championships and two BCS Bowl games, without a dominant player, first round NFL draft pick, or elite size. Jeff Maehl, Brandon Bair, Casey Matthews and Spencer Paysinger were great Ducks. But none of them have the eye-popping measurables that make NFL scouts go, "wow, we have to have this guy." Maehl, it should be noted, set a combine record in the cone drill and shuttle run, but his 40 time was a mediocre 4.65. The 40 time didn't hurt him any when he caught three touchdowns against USC.
Second, these four are football players. If the NFL scouts want a true measure of their value, they should put away the stop watch and watch them on video. Watch Casey Matthews anticipate and make plays. Watch him chase down All-World Mr. Everything Cam Newton and force a critical fumble with the game on the line. Watch Bair batting down passes and smothering ball carriers with agility and desire.
Oregon Duck Soup has the video of their Pro Day workouts.
All four of these guys are playmakers, smart guys who were consistently in the right place at the right time. They were leaders and winners. You can't measure their worth with a stopwatch.
It was great to see Chip Kelly and Scott Frost out there supporting their guys. Oregon is a place where an athlete's value and worth doesn't go down when his eligibility is over.
Larry Scott was on the sidelines at the last PAC-10 basketball tournament, and he was asked about the allegations of recruiting improprieties at Oregon, stating that the conference is looking into it. He stressed that it was routine, preliminary fact-finding, and not even an investigation at this point.
A lot of parallels and presumptions have been drawn and made between what happened at Ohio State and the Oregon situation, but the Ohio State case is way worse. At Oregon, the media is talking about a gray area in the recruiting rules. The scouting services and 7-on-7 camps exist all over the country. In the OSU case, the coach deliberately concealed evidence of multiple clear violations of NCAA rules. The penalties could have been even more severe, and still may be.
Whoa! How about those basketball Ducks? They're showing some life and fire in the conference tournament. E.J. Singler had a career-high 24 points as the Ducks evened their season record at 16-16 with an upset win over UCLA. It was an impressive win in the Staples Center before a pro-Bruin crowd. Dana Altman can coach--most thought this year's Oregon squad would wind up up in the conference basement, and now one more win will put them in contention for the NIT or a CBI entry.
Finally, for football addicts struggling to maintain with 18 more days to go until spring practice, here's a feature from Smart Football, "How can a pass-first team score more touchdowns in the red zone?" Oregon isn't a pass-first team, necessarily, but the discussion is still relevant: spread offenses lose some of their advantages when the field is compressed. Duck fans are still haunted by those three possessions in the red zone at the National Championship, producing only three points. Chip will probably have some new answers and wrinkles for next time.
First, Oregon has achieved tremendous success, two straight conference championships and two BCS Bowl games, without a dominant player, first round NFL draft pick, or elite size. Jeff Maehl, Brandon Bair, Casey Matthews and Spencer Paysinger were great Ducks. But none of them have the eye-popping measurables that make NFL scouts go, "wow, we have to have this guy." Maehl, it should be noted, set a combine record in the cone drill and shuttle run, but his 40 time was a mediocre 4.65. The 40 time didn't hurt him any when he caught three touchdowns against USC.
Second, these four are football players. If the NFL scouts want a true measure of their value, they should put away the stop watch and watch them on video. Watch Casey Matthews anticipate and make plays. Watch him chase down All-World Mr. Everything Cam Newton and force a critical fumble with the game on the line. Watch Bair batting down passes and smothering ball carriers with agility and desire.
Oregon Duck Soup has the video of their Pro Day workouts.
All four of these guys are playmakers, smart guys who were consistently in the right place at the right time. They were leaders and winners. You can't measure their worth with a stopwatch.
It was great to see Chip Kelly and Scott Frost out there supporting their guys. Oregon is a place where an athlete's value and worth doesn't go down when his eligibility is over.
Larry Scott was on the sidelines at the last PAC-10 basketball tournament, and he was asked about the allegations of recruiting improprieties at Oregon, stating that the conference is looking into it. He stressed that it was routine, preliminary fact-finding, and not even an investigation at this point.
A lot of parallels and presumptions have been drawn and made between what happened at Ohio State and the Oregon situation, but the Ohio State case is way worse. At Oregon, the media is talking about a gray area in the recruiting rules. The scouting services and 7-on-7 camps exist all over the country. In the OSU case, the coach deliberately concealed evidence of multiple clear violations of NCAA rules. The penalties could have been even more severe, and still may be.
Whoa! How about those basketball Ducks? They're showing some life and fire in the conference tournament. E.J. Singler had a career-high 24 points as the Ducks evened their season record at 16-16 with an upset win over UCLA. It was an impressive win in the Staples Center before a pro-Bruin crowd. Dana Altman can coach--most thought this year's Oregon squad would wind up up in the conference basement, and now one more win will put them in contention for the NIT or a CBI entry.
Finally, for football addicts struggling to maintain with 18 more days to go until spring practice, here's a feature from Smart Football, "How can a pass-first team score more touchdowns in the red zone?" Oregon isn't a pass-first team, necessarily, but the discussion is still relevant: spread offenses lose some of their advantages when the field is compressed. Duck fans are still haunted by those three possessions in the red zone at the National Championship, producing only three points. Chip will probably have some new answers and wrinkles for next time.
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
The Adjustment Bureau: Does Arizona Rebuild, Reload, or Implode?
(Part five of our Spring practice previews. See the archive for previous installments on Oregon, Stanford, USC, Washington)
The Arizona Wildcats went 12-1 in 1998 under Dick Tomey, but since then they've been a middling team. Most seasons it's been win a little, lose a lot, and live for the occasional upset against one of the big boys, enduring an embarrassing collapse once or twice or five times a season.
Things haven't gotten appreciably better under Mike Stoops. Hired at 41 in 2004, four years after winning winning a National Championship as defensive coordinator for his brother Bob at Oklahoma, Stoops, a former replacement player in the NFL and a defensive back in the first season of the old Arena League, has led the Wildcats to records of 3-8, 3-8, 6-6, 5-7, 8-5, 8-5, and 7-6. Production took an uptick when he hired Sonny Dykes to coach the offense, but Dykes left to be a head man at Louisiana Tech after Derek Dooley moved on to replace one-and-done Lane Kiffin at Tennessee, who bolted the Volunteers when Pete Carroll bailed out on the sanction-plagued Trojans of USC. The whirligig of coaching has its revenges.
Stoops can't catch a break, or make one. He gets an inordinate amount of attention for his tirades and sideline histrionics, and can't shake the reputation of being a truly odd guy. On the field, his Wildcats seemed to have turned the corner last season. Led by gun-slinging quarterback Nick Foles, they rode a favorable schedule and a hot start to reach 7-1 and number 15 in the country going in to a November 6th showdown with Stanford at Palo Alto. But in that game Arizona stumbled 42-17, the Cardinal's Stepfan Taylor rumbling for four touchdowns while Foles threw 19 incompletions and a pick in a battle of headline quarterbacks. Andrew Luck, meanwhile, was precise and mistake-free, 23-32 for 293 yards and two touchdowns.
After the Stanford loss Arizona's season unraveled. They suffered a 48-29 pasting by Oregon, a two-overtime loss to Arizona State on their second blocked PAT of the game, and an embarrassing 36-10 beatdown by the Oklahoma State Cowboys in the Alamo Bowl that left players, coaches and fans feeling empty. Foles probably wants to forget the Alamo, where he had his worst night in a Wildcat uniform, sacked five times and throwing three interceptions, including a pick six.
In all Stoops' squad finished the season with five straight losses, all televised by ESPN or ABC. Greg Hansen of the Arizona Daily Star noted:
Until Stoops arrived in Tucson in 2004, every UA football coach who had lost five consecutive games was fired, or asked to leave the premises: Ed Doherty in 1958, Bob Weber in 1971, Dick Tomey in 2000 and John Mackovic in 2003.
Stoops isn't going to get fired, not now, not with three years and $3.9 million left on his contract. Prospects for 2011 in a league blessed with outstanding returning quarterbacks don't seem much better.
The coach vowed to re-evaluate every aspect of the program in the off season. With Foles returning for his senior year the Zona Zoo will have high hopes but one finger on the panic button.
Way--too-early 2011 forecast:
Another year hovering around the .500 mark is likely. The schedule is brutal early and graduation losses were heavy. Five wins seems like the over/under.
Biggest off season headlines:
Bug Bugs Out
Criner Elects to Return for Senior Season
Akina leaves Arizona, heading back to ‘Horns
Wildcats Plan to Redshirt Matt Scott
Ex-Rutgers Starter Savage Signs with Cats
Important Dates:
Spring practice starts: March 21st
Spring game: April 16th
Season Opener September 3rd versus Northern Arizona
Key Losses:
Ted Miller of ESPN paints the stark picture:
The Wildcats must replace all five starters from the 2010 line, including a pair of stalwarts, center Colin Baxter and tackle Adam Grant.
Junior center Kyle Quinn, who started for the injured Baxter in Alamo Bowl, redshirt freshman tackles Mickey Baucus, Fabbians Ebbele and Trent Spurgeon and guards Chris Putton, Trace Biskin and Eric Bender-Ramsay -- all sophomores -- are some of the names you'll read this spring, as well as JC transfer Addison Bachman, redshirt freshman Carter Lees and junior Shane Zink.
The Wildcats had the best troika of ends in the Pac-10 last fall in Brooks Reed, Ricky Elmore and D'Aundre Reed, and all three are off to the NFL.
In addition, Miller points out, Stoops had to replace his co-offensive coordinator, offensive line coach, co-defensive coordinator, defensive line coach and secondary coach.
The secondary coach had to be replaced twice. Anthony Gimino of the Tuscon Citizen wrote, "the cornerstone of Arizona coach Mike Stoops’ 'winning the offseason' plan was the hiring of secondary coach Duane Akina from the University of Texas." Akina, a former Arizona assistant who has coached three Jim Thorpe Award winners and five first-round NFL draft picks, changed his mind a month later and rejoined the Longhorns.
In his place Stoops hired 25-year-old Ryan Walters, a former graduate assistant, indicating that he would be working with the secondary as well. Stoops was all-Big Ten strong safety at Iowa in his playing days, and went on to stints as an NFL replacement with the Bears and played on the losing side in the first Arena Bowl. In his first year as a position coach Walters will have an experienced hand on his shoulder, but hopefully not a heavy one.
Why the losses might not matter:
Particularly in the PAC-10 (now 12), a gun-slinging quarterback can be a great equalizer. From Bill Musgrave to Sonny Sixkiller to the Throwin' Samoan to Jake the Snake, there's a long history in the conference of great quarterbacks who lifted their teams beyond expectations, and this season a healthy Foles could be that guy. He'll be throwing to 6-4, 210-lb. Juron Criner, a senior who busted out for 82 receptions and 1233 yards last year, plus Texas transfer Dan Buckner on the other side. David Douglas and Dave Roberts add depth--they combined for 96 catches, 7 touchdowns and over a 1,000 yards behind Criner last year. With four reliable targets, plus redshirt freshman Tyler Slavin and Austin Hill, the Wildcats' passing spread could give opponents an allergy to dander and bubble screens in 2011, especially with leading rusher Keola Antolin returning to spearhead the running game.
Quarterbacks coach Frank Scelfo said he would be working with Foles on improving his recognition and decision-making this spring. If Foles takes to the lessons and improves in his third year starting, the Cats could save their season by winning some shootouts.
Impact Newcomers:
The 6-4, 215-lb. Buckner transferred out of Texas in 2010 after being charged with criminal trespassing and resisting arrest in a disturbance at a girlfriend's apartment. He played one season in Austin, grabbing 45 passes for 445 yards and four touchdowns. He'll be a junior this season, and gives Foles another tall, fast, athletic target outside, a certain matchup problem for opposing defenses.
Linebacker Rob Hankins, the number 10 linebacker in the country, was the highlight of the recruiting class and should make an immediate impact. In addition the Cats signed four offensive linemen for some critically-needed depth, but Ted Miller observed, "Most of the incoming offensive linemen look like projects."
Critical Spring Practice Questions:
Can new offensive line coach Robert Anae piece together a group that give Foles enough time to throw, and mesh with his talented receivers?
Who steps up to replace the Reeds and Elmore on the defensive line?
With so many coaching changes, can Stoops truly win the off-season, getting his staff beyond the handshakes to some solid rebuilding work?
An early look at the 2011 Schedule:
This is a team that has to find their leadership and identity right away, because they will be severely tested in the opening weeks of the season. They'll have to be resilient, because they're almost certain to suffer some early losses.
They open with a breather, a home game against Northern Arizona. But in week two they travel to Oklahoma State for a rematch with the Cowboys, followed by back-to-back home games against Stanford and Oregon, then an October 1st date at USC. A 1-4 start is a very daunting possibility. They travel to Corvallis to meet the Beavers before an October 15th bye. The back half of the schedule is easier, home against UCLA, at Washington, home versus Utah, at Colorado, at Arizona State, home versus Louisiana-Lafayette. With the significant losses on both lines, and a brutal opening month, sneaking in to a bowl game would be a successful year.
The Arizona Wildcats went 12-1 in 1998 under Dick Tomey, but since then they've been a middling team. Most seasons it's been win a little, lose a lot, and live for the occasional upset against one of the big boys, enduring an embarrassing collapse once or twice or five times a season.
Things haven't gotten appreciably better under Mike Stoops. Hired at 41 in 2004, four years after winning winning a National Championship as defensive coordinator for his brother Bob at Oklahoma, Stoops, a former replacement player in the NFL and a defensive back in the first season of the old Arena League, has led the Wildcats to records of 3-8, 3-8, 6-6, 5-7, 8-5, 8-5, and 7-6. Production took an uptick when he hired Sonny Dykes to coach the offense, but Dykes left to be a head man at Louisiana Tech after Derek Dooley moved on to replace one-and-done Lane Kiffin at Tennessee, who bolted the Volunteers when Pete Carroll bailed out on the sanction-plagued Trojans of USC. The whirligig of coaching has its revenges.
Stoops can't catch a break, or make one. He gets an inordinate amount of attention for his tirades and sideline histrionics, and can't shake the reputation of being a truly odd guy. On the field, his Wildcats seemed to have turned the corner last season. Led by gun-slinging quarterback Nick Foles, they rode a favorable schedule and a hot start to reach 7-1 and number 15 in the country going in to a November 6th showdown with Stanford at Palo Alto. But in that game Arizona stumbled 42-17, the Cardinal's Stepfan Taylor rumbling for four touchdowns while Foles threw 19 incompletions and a pick in a battle of headline quarterbacks. Andrew Luck, meanwhile, was precise and mistake-free, 23-32 for 293 yards and two touchdowns.
After the Stanford loss Arizona's season unraveled. They suffered a 48-29 pasting by Oregon, a two-overtime loss to Arizona State on their second blocked PAT of the game, and an embarrassing 36-10 beatdown by the Oklahoma State Cowboys in the Alamo Bowl that left players, coaches and fans feeling empty. Foles probably wants to forget the Alamo, where he had his worst night in a Wildcat uniform, sacked five times and throwing three interceptions, including a pick six.
In all Stoops' squad finished the season with five straight losses, all televised by ESPN or ABC. Greg Hansen of the Arizona Daily Star noted:
Until Stoops arrived in Tucson in 2004, every UA football coach who had lost five consecutive games was fired, or asked to leave the premises: Ed Doherty in 1958, Bob Weber in 1971, Dick Tomey in 2000 and John Mackovic in 2003.
Stoops isn't going to get fired, not now, not with three years and $3.9 million left on his contract. Prospects for 2011 in a league blessed with outstanding returning quarterbacks don't seem much better.
The coach vowed to re-evaluate every aspect of the program in the off season. With Foles returning for his senior year the Zona Zoo will have high hopes but one finger on the panic button.
Way--too-early 2011 forecast:
Another year hovering around the .500 mark is likely. The schedule is brutal early and graduation losses were heavy. Five wins seems like the over/under.
Biggest off season headlines:
Bug Bugs Out
Criner Elects to Return for Senior Season
Akina leaves Arizona, heading back to ‘Horns
Wildcats Plan to Redshirt Matt Scott
Ex-Rutgers Starter Savage Signs with Cats
Important Dates:
Spring practice starts: March 21st
Spring game: April 16th
Season Opener September 3rd versus Northern Arizona
Key Losses:
Ted Miller of ESPN paints the stark picture:
The Wildcats must replace all five starters from the 2010 line, including a pair of stalwarts, center Colin Baxter and tackle Adam Grant.
Junior center Kyle Quinn, who started for the injured Baxter in Alamo Bowl, redshirt freshman tackles Mickey Baucus, Fabbians Ebbele and Trent Spurgeon and guards Chris Putton, Trace Biskin and Eric Bender-Ramsay -- all sophomores -- are some of the names you'll read this spring, as well as JC transfer Addison Bachman, redshirt freshman Carter Lees and junior Shane Zink.
The Wildcats had the best troika of ends in the Pac-10 last fall in Brooks Reed, Ricky Elmore and D'Aundre Reed, and all three are off to the NFL.
In addition, Miller points out, Stoops had to replace his co-offensive coordinator, offensive line coach, co-defensive coordinator, defensive line coach and secondary coach.
The secondary coach had to be replaced twice. Anthony Gimino of the Tuscon Citizen wrote, "the cornerstone of Arizona coach Mike Stoops’ 'winning the offseason' plan was the hiring of secondary coach Duane Akina from the University of Texas." Akina, a former Arizona assistant who has coached three Jim Thorpe Award winners and five first-round NFL draft picks, changed his mind a month later and rejoined the Longhorns.
In his place Stoops hired 25-year-old Ryan Walters, a former graduate assistant, indicating that he would be working with the secondary as well. Stoops was all-Big Ten strong safety at Iowa in his playing days, and went on to stints as an NFL replacement with the Bears and played on the losing side in the first Arena Bowl. In his first year as a position coach Walters will have an experienced hand on his shoulder, but hopefully not a heavy one.
Why the losses might not matter:
Particularly in the PAC-10 (now 12), a gun-slinging quarterback can be a great equalizer. From Bill Musgrave to Sonny Sixkiller to the Throwin' Samoan to Jake the Snake, there's a long history in the conference of great quarterbacks who lifted their teams beyond expectations, and this season a healthy Foles could be that guy. He'll be throwing to 6-4, 210-lb. Juron Criner, a senior who busted out for 82 receptions and 1233 yards last year, plus Texas transfer Dan Buckner on the other side. David Douglas and Dave Roberts add depth--they combined for 96 catches, 7 touchdowns and over a 1,000 yards behind Criner last year. With four reliable targets, plus redshirt freshman Tyler Slavin and Austin Hill, the Wildcats' passing spread could give opponents an allergy to dander and bubble screens in 2011, especially with leading rusher Keola Antolin returning to spearhead the running game.
Quarterbacks coach Frank Scelfo said he would be working with Foles on improving his recognition and decision-making this spring. If Foles takes to the lessons and improves in his third year starting, the Cats could save their season by winning some shootouts.
Impact Newcomers:
The 6-4, 215-lb. Buckner transferred out of Texas in 2010 after being charged with criminal trespassing and resisting arrest in a disturbance at a girlfriend's apartment. He played one season in Austin, grabbing 45 passes for 445 yards and four touchdowns. He'll be a junior this season, and gives Foles another tall, fast, athletic target outside, a certain matchup problem for opposing defenses.
Linebacker Rob Hankins, the number 10 linebacker in the country, was the highlight of the recruiting class and should make an immediate impact. In addition the Cats signed four offensive linemen for some critically-needed depth, but Ted Miller observed, "Most of the incoming offensive linemen look like projects."
Critical Spring Practice Questions:
Can new offensive line coach Robert Anae piece together a group that give Foles enough time to throw, and mesh with his talented receivers?
Who steps up to replace the Reeds and Elmore on the defensive line?
With so many coaching changes, can Stoops truly win the off-season, getting his staff beyond the handshakes to some solid rebuilding work?
An early look at the 2011 Schedule:
This is a team that has to find their leadership and identity right away, because they will be severely tested in the opening weeks of the season. They'll have to be resilient, because they're almost certain to suffer some early losses.
They open with a breather, a home game against Northern Arizona. But in week two they travel to Oklahoma State for a rematch with the Cowboys, followed by back-to-back home games against Stanford and Oregon, then an October 1st date at USC. A 1-4 start is a very daunting possibility. They travel to Corvallis to meet the Beavers before an October 15th bye. The back half of the schedule is easier, home against UCLA, at Washington, home versus Utah, at Colorado, at Arizona State, home versus Louisiana-Lafayette. With the significant losses on both lines, and a brutal opening month, sneaking in to a bowl game would be a successful year.
Jim Tressel and Ohio State Get the Ducks off the Front Page
Ohio State has suspended Jim Tressel for two games and fined him $250,000 for violating NCAA rules. Yahoo Sports Dan Wetzel and Charles Robinson reported yesterday that Tressel knew as early as last April that five starters, including star quarterback Terrelle Pryor, had sold memorabilia.
The Ducks' problems haven't gone away, but at least they're off the front page. The Ohio State has played Charlie Sheen to Oregon's Lindsay Lohan, it seems. In the world of the blogosphere a scandal has a 72-hour shelf life, from startling allegations to sordid details to troubling ramifications, and then the furious linking and outrage moves on to something else.
College football has serious, systematic problems. Oregon, USC, North Carolina, Tennessee, Auburn, Ohio State, and Auburn have all come under particular fire, but even if the NCAA started handing out death penalties with the stern enthusiasm of a Texas judge, there would still be an undiscovered country of problems at Alabama, Oklahoma and the rest of the top twenty.
Maybe it's time for some realistic evaluations and genuine reform. Every week the game is stained with a fresh scandal. The pretense and posturing isn't fooling anybody, nor is the selective outrage solving anything. Recruiting and amateurism in NCAA college football are fundamentally broke, and no litany of stunning headlines and feigned surprise will fix it.
The Ducks' problems haven't gone away, but at least they're off the front page. The Ohio State has played Charlie Sheen to Oregon's Lindsay Lohan, it seems. In the world of the blogosphere a scandal has a 72-hour shelf life, from startling allegations to sordid details to troubling ramifications, and then the furious linking and outrage moves on to something else.
College football has serious, systematic problems. Oregon, USC, North Carolina, Tennessee, Auburn, Ohio State, and Auburn have all come under particular fire, but even if the NCAA started handing out death penalties with the stern enthusiasm of a Texas judge, there would still be an undiscovered country of problems at Alabama, Oklahoma and the rest of the top twenty.
Maybe it's time for some realistic evaluations and genuine reform. Every week the game is stained with a fresh scandal. The pretense and posturing isn't fooling anybody, nor is the selective outrage solving anything. Recruiting and amateurism in NCAA college football are fundamentally broke, and no litany of stunning headlines and feigned surprise will fix it.
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