(Part five of our Spring practice previews. See the archive for previous installments on Oregon, Stanford, USC, Washington)
The Arizona Wildcats went 12-1 in 1998 under Dick Tomey, but since then they've been a middling team. Most seasons it's been win a little, lose a lot, and live for the occasional upset against one of the big boys, enduring an embarrassing collapse once or twice or five times a season.
Things haven't gotten appreciably better under Mike Stoops. Hired at 41 in 2004, four years after winning winning a National Championship as defensive coordinator for his brother Bob at Oklahoma, Stoops, a former replacement player in the NFL and a defensive back in the first season of the old Arena League, has led the Wildcats to records of 3-8, 3-8, 6-6, 5-7, 8-5, 8-5, and 7-6. Production took an uptick when he hired Sonny Dykes to coach the offense, but Dykes left to be a head man at Louisiana Tech after Derek Dooley moved on to replace one-and-done Lane Kiffin at Tennessee, who bolted the Volunteers when Pete Carroll bailed out on the sanction-plagued Trojans of USC. The whirligig of coaching has its revenges.
Stoops can't catch a break, or make one. He gets an inordinate amount of attention for his tirades and sideline histrionics, and can't shake the reputation of being a truly odd guy. On the field, his Wildcats seemed to have turned the corner last season. Led by gun-slinging quarterback Nick Foles, they rode a favorable schedule and a hot start to reach 7-1 and number 15 in the country going in to a November 6th showdown with Stanford at Palo Alto. But in that game Arizona stumbled 42-17, the Cardinal's Stepfan Taylor rumbling for four touchdowns while Foles threw 19 incompletions and a pick in a battle of headline quarterbacks. Andrew Luck, meanwhile, was precise and mistake-free, 23-32 for 293 yards and two touchdowns.
After the Stanford loss Arizona's season unraveled. They suffered a 48-29 pasting by Oregon, a two-overtime loss to Arizona State on their second blocked PAT of the game, and an embarrassing 36-10 beatdown by the Oklahoma State Cowboys in the Alamo Bowl that left players, coaches and fans feeling empty. Foles probably wants to forget the Alamo, where he had his worst night in a Wildcat uniform, sacked five times and throwing three interceptions, including a pick six.
In all Stoops' squad finished the season with five straight losses, all televised by ESPN or ABC. Greg Hansen of the Arizona Daily Star noted:
Until Stoops arrived in Tucson in 2004, every UA football coach who had lost five consecutive games was fired, or asked to leave the premises: Ed Doherty in 1958, Bob Weber in 1971, Dick Tomey in 2000 and John Mackovic in 2003.
Stoops isn't going to get fired, not now, not with three years and $3.9 million left on his contract. Prospects for 2011 in a league blessed with outstanding returning quarterbacks don't seem much better.
The coach vowed to re-evaluate every aspect of the program in the off season. With Foles returning for his senior year the Zona Zoo will have high hopes but one finger on the panic button.
Way--too-early 2011 forecast:
Another year hovering around the .500 mark is likely. The schedule is brutal early and graduation losses were heavy. Five wins seems like the over/under.
Biggest off season headlines:
Bug Bugs Out
Criner Elects to Return for Senior Season
Akina leaves Arizona, heading back to ‘Horns
Wildcats Plan to Redshirt Matt Scott
Ex-Rutgers Starter Savage Signs with Cats
Important Dates:
Spring practice starts: March 21st
Spring game: April 16th
Season Opener September 3rd versus Northern Arizona
Key Losses:
Ted Miller of ESPN paints the stark picture:
The Wildcats must replace all five starters from the 2010 line, including a pair of stalwarts, center Colin Baxter and tackle Adam Grant.
Junior center Kyle Quinn, who started for the injured Baxter in Alamo Bowl, redshirt freshman tackles Mickey Baucus, Fabbians Ebbele and Trent Spurgeon and guards Chris Putton, Trace Biskin and Eric Bender-Ramsay -- all sophomores -- are some of the names you'll read this spring, as well as JC transfer Addison Bachman, redshirt freshman Carter Lees and junior Shane Zink.
The Wildcats had the best troika of ends in the Pac-10 last fall in Brooks Reed, Ricky Elmore and D'Aundre Reed, and all three are off to the NFL.
In addition, Miller points out, Stoops had to replace his co-offensive coordinator, offensive line coach, co-defensive coordinator, defensive line coach and secondary coach.
The secondary coach had to be replaced twice. Anthony Gimino of the Tuscon Citizen wrote, "the cornerstone of Arizona coach Mike Stoops’ 'winning the offseason' plan was the hiring of secondary coach Duane Akina from the University of Texas." Akina, a former Arizona assistant who has coached three Jim Thorpe Award winners and five first-round NFL draft picks, changed his mind a month later and rejoined the Longhorns.
In his place Stoops hired 25-year-old Ryan Walters, a former graduate assistant, indicating that he would be working with the secondary as well. Stoops was all-Big Ten strong safety at Iowa in his playing days, and went on to stints as an NFL replacement with the Bears and played on the losing side in the first Arena Bowl. In his first year as a position coach Walters will have an experienced hand on his shoulder, but hopefully not a heavy one.
Why the losses might not matter:
Particularly in the PAC-10 (now 12), a gun-slinging quarterback can be a great equalizer. From Bill Musgrave to Sonny Sixkiller to the Throwin' Samoan to Jake the Snake, there's a long history in the conference of great quarterbacks who lifted their teams beyond expectations, and this season a healthy Foles could be that guy. He'll be throwing to 6-4, 210-lb. Juron Criner, a senior who busted out for 82 receptions and 1233 yards last year, plus Texas transfer Dan Buckner on the other side. David Douglas and Dave Roberts add depth--they combined for 96 catches, 7 touchdowns and over a 1,000 yards behind Criner last year. With four reliable targets, plus redshirt freshman Tyler Slavin and Austin Hill, the Wildcats' passing spread could give opponents an allergy to dander and bubble screens in 2011, especially with leading rusher Keola Antolin returning to spearhead the running game.
Quarterbacks coach Frank Scelfo said he would be working with Foles on improving his recognition and decision-making this spring. If Foles takes to the lessons and improves in his third year starting, the Cats could save their season by winning some shootouts.
Impact Newcomers:
The 6-4, 215-lb. Buckner transferred out of Texas in 2010 after being charged with criminal trespassing and resisting arrest in a disturbance at a girlfriend's apartment. He played one season in Austin, grabbing 45 passes for 445 yards and four touchdowns. He'll be a junior this season, and gives Foles another tall, fast, athletic target outside, a certain matchup problem for opposing defenses.
Linebacker Rob Hankins, the number 10 linebacker in the country, was the highlight of the recruiting class and should make an immediate impact. In addition the Cats signed four offensive linemen for some critically-needed depth, but Ted Miller observed, "Most of the incoming offensive linemen look like projects."
Critical Spring Practice Questions:
Can new offensive line coach Robert Anae piece together a group that give Foles enough time to throw, and mesh with his talented receivers?
Who steps up to replace the Reeds and Elmore on the defensive line?
With so many coaching changes, can Stoops truly win the off-season, getting his staff beyond the handshakes to some solid rebuilding work?
An early look at the 2011 Schedule:
This is a team that has to find their leadership and identity right away, because they will be severely tested in the opening weeks of the season. They'll have to be resilient, because they're almost certain to suffer some early losses.
They open with a breather, a home game against Northern Arizona. But in week two they travel to Oklahoma State for a rematch with the Cowboys, followed by back-to-back home games against Stanford and Oregon, then an October 1st date at USC. A 1-4 start is a very daunting possibility. They travel to Corvallis to meet the Beavers before an October 15th bye. The back half of the schedule is easier, home against UCLA, at Washington, home versus Utah, at Colorado, at Arizona State, home versus Louisiana-Lafayette. With the significant losses on both lines, and a brutal opening month, sneaking in to a bowl game would be a successful year.
No comments:
Post a Comment