A Clear and Present Danger: Stanford Takes Aim at a Title Run of Their Own

(Part two of a thirteen-part series, previewing the PAC-12 conference teams in preparation for spring practice.)

The Stanford Cardinal

Last season: 

12-1, 8-1 in PAC-10, second in conference.  The one loss was a Saturday night national TV game, 52-31 to the Ducks in Autzen Stadium.  They led 21-3 before Oregon put on a furious rally, energized by an onside kick recovered by Rob Beard.   Darron Thomas threw for 238 yards and three touchdowns on 20 of 29 passing, while LaMichael James ran for 257 yards, including a game-sealing, Heisman-moment 76-yard run with 1:10 to play, offsetting a 341-yard performance by Andrew Luck, who was picked twice by Cliff Harris.

The Cardinal finished number four in the country, defeating Virginia Tech 40-12 in the Orange Bowl.  For the season, Luck threw for 3338 yards and 32 touchdowns with just 8 interceptions, completing 70.7% of his passes.  He also ran for 453 yards, 8.2 yards a carry.  Backfield mate Stepfan Taylor rushed for 1137 yards with a 5.1 average and 15 touchdowns.

In just four short years, Jim Harbaugh transformed Stanford from a soft conference doormat, 1-11 in Walt Harris' last year, to a national power.  Led by their junior quarterback Luck, a certain future first-round NFL draft pick and the Heisman Trophy favorite, the Cardinal seem poised to challenge Oregon as the premier team in the West in 2011.


Way--too-early 2011 forecast:

The Cardinal are replacing 29 seniors, Jim Harbaugh, and both their coordinators.  Harbaugh instilled blue-collar toughness and a physical attitude in the team that will be missing without him.  They will fall back a little and lose some of that edge. 10-3, second in the PAC-12 North, earning a trip to the Alamo Bowl.

Biggest off season headlines:

Harbaugh Leaves the Farm to coach the 49ers
Andrew Luck Passes Up the NFL Draft; elects to stay at Stanford
David Shaw Named New Stanford Head Coach
Stanford Announces New Coordinators and Coaching Changes

Important Dates:

Spring practice began Monday February 21 with a 2.5 hour workout.  John Wilner has a report, and first-year head coach Shaw shares his impressions.  The Cardinal are spreading out spring drills over two mini-camps, concluding with the Red and White intrasquad game at Kezar Stadium on April 9th.  Only three of the practices are open to the public.  They open the 2011 season with a September 3rd game at home versus San Jose State.


Key Losses:

The graduating class included 2-way starter and inspirational leader Owen Marecic, all-league center Chase Beeler, tight end Coby Fleener, three starting offensive linemen,  Luck's three leading receivers, and most importantly, Harbaugh.  Linebacker Thomas Keiser left early for the NFL, a surprise move.

Why the losses might not matter:

The PAC-10 (now 12) was always a quarterback league, and Luck is the best in the country.  The scary thing for opponents is, he keeps getting better.  In 2009 as a redshirt freshman and first-year starter, he completed 56.3% of his passes, with 13 touchdowns and 4 interceptions.  In 2010, with Toby Gerhart having moved on to the NFL, Luck jumped to a 70.7%  completion rate, 32 touchdowns and 8 interceptions in 372 attempts, despite not having an elite receiver corps.  He's 6-4, 235, with a rocket arm and tremendous instincts.  He'll pass the PAC-12 silly.


Impact Newcomers:

The Cardinal have open competitions at center and wide receiver. 6-5, 250-lb. linebacker/defensive end Blake Lueders was one of their big recruiting finds a year ago.  After being named Mr. Indiana football his senior year of high school he appeared in 10 games as a true freshman, and has been singled out by Shaw as a player who is ready for a much bigger role, used in variety of spots with his combination of speed, size and mobility.   Linebacker James Vaughters, from the 2011 class, was rated the 4th-best inside linebacker in the nation by Rivals, and will bid to play right away, perhaps replacing the departed Marecic.  Safety Wayne Lyons, a  prep All-American from Ft. Lauderdale, Florida could replace Alex Loukas.  A fast, physical, ball-hawking defensive back at 6-1 190, Lyons will see the field as fast as he masters the defensive playbook.  Defensive end Charlie Hopkins and WR Ty Montgomery could also make a bid to contribute right away.  Coach Shaw describes the wide receiver competition as "wide open."

Critical Spring Practice Questions:

Without Harbaugh and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, will the Cardinal maintain the chip on the shoulder?  How do they fare without Harbaugh's legendary intensity?  (What a sales job it was by the new 49'ers coach to instill an attitude of physical toughness and blue collar meanness at Stanford, a bastion of privilege and exclusivity.)

How quickly can the offensive line gel with three new starters?  This is Luck's team, but as great as he is, he needs time to throw and someone to catch the football.

Who emerges at wide receiver?  Shaw has a good rotation at running back with 1100-yard rusher Taylor, Tyler Gaffney and Jeremy Stewart, who was just granted a fifth year by the NCAA.  But the cupboard is seemingly bare at wideout, where Chris Owusu is the top returnee with 25 catches.

Who fills the leadership gap?  Stanford lost Marecic, defensive lineman Sione Fua, center Beeler and guard Andy Phillips, all pacesetters on the team.  Luck and hard-hitting linebacker Shane Skov, plus linebacker/Academy Award injury-faker Chase Thomas will be counted on to replace them in the locker room.

An early look at the 2011 Schedule:

What jumps out first is that the Cardinal close with home games versus Cal, Oregon and Notre Dame.  They have the distinct advantage of being very comfortable in the stretch drive, closing with their three toughest games all at home.  They have seven home games in all, opening with the laugher versus San Jose State, traveling to Duke on September 10th, and in a key early test, facing Arizona in Tucson on September 17th.  If they start 3-0, which is likely, look out, because they'll build momentum in games 4-6, facing  lowly UCLA, Colorado and Washington State before hosting Washington on October 22nd.  A 7-0 start is a very real possibility.  They meet Matt Barkley and USC in the Coliseum October 29, then travel to Corvallis to face the Beibers on November 5th.

The schedule breaks very well for Stanford, but the upheaval in their coaching staff, plus the lack of dependable targets for Luck and the loss of Harbaugh will lead to a couple of stumbles.  They're not getting past the Ducks, although the ground crew will likely assist them with some three-inch high turf and a generous watering regimen.   A rainy late-season game in the Bay Area has often been a bugaboo for Oregon, and Saturday November 12th will likely be a rendevous with Erin Andrews, Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit and Lee Corso.  It's a game that could get big attention all around the country, part three of the rivalry between Luck and Thomas, which goes all the way back to their prep days in Houston, Texas.

next: Washington