On the shores of Montlake, the idyllic backdrop of venerable Husky Stadium, it is forever the Summer of '91: the Huskies are national title contenders, their head coach is a godlike genius, and the Oregon coach is in over his head.
But the worm in this yacht-lounging, tequila-swilling fantasy is the college football landscape has drastically changed. Thirty-two years have passed, and in the present reality of NIL and the transfer portal it's the talent acquisition process that's on steroids, not the UDub All-American Nose Tackle.
These programs are bringing in plenty of immediate impact players 💯 pic.twitter.com/RLXCOxQFYq
— Saturday Gameday (@SaturdayGameday) May 22, 2023
Traditionally the formula for calculating preseason favorites was to tally the returning starters, factor in last year's results, losses to graduation and the NFL draft, then add some bonus points for a stellar returning starting quarterback and returning starts on the offensive line. Models varied widely and were rarely very accurate: preseason polls usually spit out the usual suspects, with great favoritism toward blue bloods, the SEC, conventional wisdom, perceived schedule strength, home field advantage and how much the head coach drinks.
Here's this year's Football Power Index from ESPN, as of May 3rd, right after spring practice:
1. Ohio State
2. Alabama
3. Georgia
4. LSU
5. Texas
6. Michigan
7. USC
8. Clemson
9. Notre Dame
10. Penn State
11. Oklahoma
12. Tennessee
13. Oregon
14. Florida State
15. Utah
16. Ole Miss
17. TCU
18. Florida
19. Texas A&M
20. Wisconsin
21. Washington
22. Texas Tech (Oregon's game two opponent, 8-5 last year, passing for 309 yards a game)
23. Baylor
24. Oregon State
25. North Carolina
ESPN says this index is based on 20,000 simulations (!) of what would happen if these teams met an average opponent on a neutral field, which makes it the fanciest guesswork possible. The beauty of preseason polls is that they are just something to talk about. In the playoff era, most of this gets settled on the field.
To paraphrase the immortal Ted Lasso, sports would be a lot less fun if we knew what was gonna' happen. And coaches would get paid a lot less money.
What makes the various preseason eyeball tests even more impossible is that none of these teams are remotely the same as they were at the end of the year. With the portal it's now possible to transform a roster in one off season. Since they played their last game in December the Ducks have added the #9 recruiting class with 20 4- and 5-star players among 29 recruits (69% blue-chips). Washington was 25th, signing 8 four-stars, 13 3-stars, a blue-chip ratio of 31%.
Oregon added 15 players from the transfer portal. Colorado added 50. Washington, 7. Seven of the Ducks signings from the portal were 4-star+ players as recruits.
In all the Ducks added:
Edge rusher Jordan Burch from South Carolina, a 5-star recruit in 2020, 6-6, 275
Offensive tackle Adjani Cornelius from Rhode Island
Cornerback Kyree Jackson, Alabama
Wide receiver Traeshon Holden, a 4-star from Alabama
4-star linebacker Jestin Jacobs from the University of Iowa
Junior Angilau, a 4-star offensive lineman from Texas
Tez Johnson, a superfast wide receiver from Troy, Bo Nix's adopted brother
Evan Williams, 4-star safety from Fresno State
Linebacker Connor Soelle from Arizona State, a special teams terror
Tight end Casey Kelly from Mississippi
Tysheem Johnson, a safety from Ole Miss
Gary Bryant, wide receiver from USC
Nikko Reed, a cornerback from Colorado and a 2-year starter
Tight end Kaden Ludwick from Colorado
There were subtractions also, but it's a solid bet that Dan Lanning improved the Oregon roster and met critical needs this off season. The most notable defections were tall, sleek wide receiver Donte' Thorton, linebacker Keith Brown, and versatile offensive lineman Dawson Jaramillo, all part-time starters in 2022.
That September 9th game at #22 Texas Tech should be a pretty good indicator of whether they've done enough to improve the pass rush and the secondary. There's little doubt that Oregon's offense will be potent.
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