Saturday's matchup in Autzen, number ten Oregon hosting number 19 Colorado, is a bit like the O.J. Simpson murder trial. It promises to be a riveting drama, televised nationally at 12:30 P.M. Pacific on ABC.
No one is going to die from brutal stab wounds, but Oregon is the prosecution. Like Marcia Clark and Christopher Darden, the Ducks enter the courtroom with all the advantages.
The facts favor their side: Oregon is a 21.5-point favorite on the Action Network and other sports gambling information sites. Both teams are 3-0, but the Ducks run the football better and stop the run more efficiently. The Colorado defense ranks 125th in the nation out of 132 teams on the ground, surrendering 5.01 yards per carry and 195.3 yards per game.
For a team with a stampeding Buffalo as a mascot, Colorado's ground game is anemic. They rush the football for just 61 yards a game and average 1.99 yards a carry. Meanwhile the Ducks have a stable of fast, shifty backs in Bucky Irving, Noah Whittington and Jordan James, plus promising freshmen Jayden Limar and Dante Dowdell. As a team they've rolled up 229.3 yards a game, 6.83 a carry.
Oregon boasts a much better offensive line. Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders is second in the nation in passing yardage, but he's been sacked 15 times. Bo Nix, once.
The Ducks have a better defense and a bigger, stronger team. Both squads feature players that are explosive and fast, and both teams have an accurate, resourceful quarterback. The Ducks have a pair of players in defense tackle Casey Rogers and center Jackson Powers-Johnson who squat 700 pounds. Colorado simply isn't as physical. The ESPN matchup predictor gives the hosts a 93.9% chance to win.
Yet upsets and surprise verdicts happen all the time. The main way Oregon can lose Saturday is to allow Deion Sanders and his quarterback/son Shedeur to distract them with psychological ploys, misdirection, stirring up old resentments and red herrings, making the case about something other than the facts and the evidence.
Shedeur Sanders poking CSU players in their eyes 👀 pic.twitter.com/FgCkFoQUmv
— College Transfer Portal (@CollegeFBPortal) September 17, 2023
The Ducks have to maintain focus and composure. They can't let themselves be baited into a chippy game with foolish penalties. Last week Colorado State did too much to aid Colorado's comeback, giving them 2nd and 3rd chances with late hits, roughing the passer, face masking, in all a nation's-worst 17 penalties for 182 yards, including two for 25 yards on back-to-back plays in the first overtime.
The Rams had a 28-17 lead when they scored with 11:22 to play in the 4th quarter. Shedeur and the Buffs made a courageous comeback, but the underdogs from Colorado Springs aided that comeback with penalties, mistakes and timid decisions.
People think of referees as judges but in reality they're just the baliff and court reporter. In football, the more focused team becomes the judge and jury. They decide the case.
Another fight break outs at the Colorado vs Colorado St. game! pic.twitter.com/c8DpXqVYM6
— Rate the Refs App (@Rate_the_Refs) September 17, 2023
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