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Monday, February 14, 2011

Clowney's a Gamecock, but the Ducks Are #3 in the Country with Plenty of Playmakers of their Own

Preseason rankings matter, but only for one reason.  The higher the initial ranking, the easier it is to reach the top or stay there.  Ranked third to start the season, the Ducks can absorb a loss without disappearing, while a couple of convincing wins over LSU and Nevada would have them getting first place votes. 

Ask Chip Kelly and you'd get the standard answer.  But as long as NCAA division one football remains a beauty contest reporters and coaches vote on and  computers handicap, the rankings matter.  The difference between number two and number four is about twenty million dollars, and the opportunity to get another crack at the SEC.

The cautious among us will point out that Oregon lost 10 starters after the Auburn game, including senior leaders who forged the character and personality of the team.  Chip Kelly will have plenty of talent to draw plays for in 2011.  What he won't have is Drew Davis, Spencer Paysinger and Casey Matthews to shape the will and the heart.  Leadership and maturity, not defensive tackle, is the Ducks' biggest question mark this year.

The doomsayers among us point to road games in Dallas, Tucson, Seattle and Palo Alto as the pot holes in a difficult schedule.  The Webfoots don't duck any of the PAC-12's heavyweights in their nine-game conference schedule, missing only woefully disorganized UCLA and rebuilding Utah.

But they have six home games, including USC and Oregon State to end the year.  The opponents have challenges of their own.  LSU replaces their offensive coordinator and six starters on defense, including the Jim Thorpe Award winner.  Arizona has to break in an entire offensive line as all five starters used up their eligibility.  Nevada is without Colin Kaepernick and their leading rusher.  The Huskies will have a sophomore quarterback.  Though Stanford has future number one draft pick Andrew Luck back, the Cardinal will be without Jim Harbaugh,  Owen Marecic, Chase Beeler, Doug Baldwin, two coordinators, and 26 other seniors.  They kept an incredible asset, but lose a lot elsewhere.  With Harbaugh gone, they'll fall back a little, in spite of the optimistic projections.

In college football, transitions like these are inevitable.  Part of the charm of the sport is the four-year cycle of building and hoping and saying good-bye.  In South Keralina fans are ecstactic tonight because a man-child put on a new hat.  In Eugene and the Willamette Valley and the far-flung corners of the world where a random stranger will throw up an "O" when he sees your hat, optimism burns like the flame of hope in democracy, because the Ducks do things the right way and recruit players who do the same.

Tonight Oregon doesn't have Jadaveon Clowney, but they have Dion Jordan, Terrell Turner, Tony Washington, Christian French, Sam Kamp, Lake Koa-Ka'ai and the pride and tradition of a two-time conference champion.  The kids will be all right.  Maybe they settle for the Rose Bowl this year, who knows.  But what is certain that every step of the journey will be memorable and intense.  They won't quit.  They'll come out of the starting blocks with a burst, and race all the way to the tape.

4 comments:

  1. If the Ducks beat Lsu they run the table and gain national consideration again. Ranking them #3 is just disrespectful and an awful place to start based on College Football rankings/experts etc. Oklahoma beats an awful Uconn team and they are ranked #!?

    I'm not concerned about leadership, the senior's will be missed but the main guys are in place. DT and Limike are the most important pieces of the entire team and will be even better this year. The O-line returns 3-5 guys with considerable playing time and Asper can lead that group. The special teams players are returning -Rice, Beard, Harris, Barner. The D-line has Turner and Jordan for leadership. Ebert will have a monster year. Kaddu/Clay provide leadership in a deep linebacker core. The 3 most important defensive backs return-Harris, Pleasant, Boyett.
    It's premature to look ahead and assume which games will be the most difficult. Last year it looked as if the home games would be easier than the away games, and they ended up being as tough or tougher.(Zona was close, UW was tight for much of the 1st half, Stanford a comeback win)
    I think Zona really falls off this year and we destroy them. Same with Nevada and Missouri St. With SC and OS* coming to Eugene those are wins but are close. The Ducks did lose a lot to graduation, but I think the other teams lost even more significant playmakers.
    Stanford- as you mentioned.
    OS*-Quizz, Paea, Dockery, James R.?
    Zona-as you mentioned.
    Sc- lost a handful of talent.
    Cal-Vereen, Riley, Mohammed, Cam Jordan.
    UW-Does it matter?
    WSU/ASU/Colorado...

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  2. From your lips to karma's ears. Go Ducks.

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  3. "The cautious among us" are quick to point out that Oregon will be no better on either the Offensive or Defensive lines in 2011, and if they play in next year's title game, they'll be facing opposing lines on both sides with far more talent than we have. Oregon's well coached, but so is Oklahoma, Alabama, Ohio State, etc. On that stage, we will not be able to out scheme superior talent in the trenches. It's elementary, Watson. Oregon is a couple more recruiting classes away from having the talent it takes to have as much success running against Alabama as they do Washington. I hope it happens someday. But I don't see it as early as next year. IMHO. Go Ducks!

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  4. Anon--

    Against the Oklahomas and Alabamas, Oregon has to pass to set up the run. Tere is enough talent in this year's and last year's recruiting class to create that kind of offensive line talent in another year or two, and this year's won't be bad.

    Doug--

    Great analysis. Thanks for your comment.

    Dale

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