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Saturday, October 28, 2023

Win or lose today, Dan Lanning remains the right choice as Oregon's head coach

 


This week sports reporter Nick Ursini of KEZI television in Eugene asked ESPN Game Day host Rece Davis if Dan Lanning needed a "signature win" today at Utah. Davis gave a thoughtful, common-sense answer:

About Lanning, Davis said, "I think he's got every characteristic you want for an elite coach. Do they need to win tomorrow? Well yeah, because they want to win championships."

Fan expectations have reached insane levels in this era of the college football playoff, NIL and the transfer portal. Used to be, the thinking was a coach needed three to four years to build a program and get "his players," the right guys for his system, the talent to compete.

In the midst of the one-year overhauls by LSU's Brian Kelly, USC's Lincoln Riley and Deion Sanders at Colorado, the pressure to win is almost immediate. At some schools, anything less than a playoff berth meets with grumbling and unrest.

Most Oregon fans like Lanning for his passion and effort, but some reserve judgment after the close losses in rivalry games, 0-3 now against Washington and Oregon State. As year two unfolds, there's an undercurrent of expectation that anything less than a conference title in Year Two represents failure.

That's unfair. After 20 games, Lanning is 16-4 as a head coach. His .800 winning percentage ranks 2nd all-time among Duck head coaches with 20 or more games, behind Chip Kelly at .868 (46-7). He's reached the AP Top Ten in each of his first 2 years (finishing 15th in Year One) and has had a top ten recruiting class in both seasons.

10-3 and a win in the Holiday Bowl over North Carolina is a solid debut for a first-time head coach, and he coached brilliantly in that bowl win, coming from behind in the fourth quarter.  For example, Nick Saban is widely regarded as the greatest coach in college football history. Saban was 6-5-1 in his first season at Michigan State, 8-4 in his first season at LSU, 7-6 in his first season at Alabama. Kalen Deboer, a hot commodity after his hot start over his first two seasons in Seattle, went 12-6 at Fresno State, his first job in the FBS.

Despite the quick-strike Social Media criticism, Lanning didn't inherit a turnkey squad from his predecessor in Eugene. Imagine the Oregon offense without Bo Nix and Bucky Irving, two players Lanning and his staff brought from the transfer portal. Similarly, the Oregon defense has been transformed via the portal. Khyree Jackson, Tysheem Johnson, Jordan Burch have given the unit backbone and a new toughness. Through recruiting and the portal, the coach has remade the roster in his first two seasons, instilling a culture based on authentic connection.

Consider that in two years, his teams have never had a flat game, a game where the effort and focus weren't there. They've lost games, but they've always been ready to play.

Lanning has recruited relentlessly and his staff decisions have been excellent. Carlos Locklyn, Tosh Lupoi, Will Stein, A'lique Terry, Demetrius Martin have all been exceptional hires. 

The Ducks are 6.5-point favorites in Salt Lake City today, and they are the more talented team. They have the more explosive offense. But both teams are good on defense, and Rice-Eccles Stadium is a tough place to play. In fact, the Utes have a 27-game home winning streak there. 

Utah coach Kyle Whittingham is the acknowledged dean of PAC-12 coaches, renown for teaching discipline and toughness. He's won consistently, 84-36 since 2014, the best record in the league, a .700 win percentage, and the last two conference championships.

I fully expect the Ducks will win today, but even if they don't, they've hired the guy I believe will become the most successful coach in program history. He'll learn what he doesn't know, even if some of his bold decisions don't pan out.

Posted by Dale Bliss at 5:08 AM 0 comments

Sunday, October 15, 2023

Gambling? Aggressive? The crucial adjustment in mindset Dan Lanning has to make


 In the brief Dan Lanning era the Ducks are 0-3 in rivalry games, losing by 3, 4 and 3 points. In those they've had 6 Red Zone possessions that resulted in 0 points and they've gone 3-12 on 4th downs. 

Rivalry games are different. They tend to be close and tense. Points are precious. Field position matters more.

In all three of those games they led in the 4th quarter, outgained the opponent and won or tied in the turnover battle. As a team they must learn to finish these out--be two plays better, make better decisions and reads.

Decisions have a different weight in rivalry games, particularly because momentum swings are more powerful.  By the 4th quarter the Ducks had quieted Husky Stadium.  The failed fourth down gave the opponent life.

When a coach makes big decisions in critical moments, he has to know more than the math. He has to know how his team will respond and what's going to work. And he has to have the wisdom to learn from his own mistakes.

Posted by Dale Bliss at 10:23 PM 0 comments

Tuesday, October 3, 2023

Wouldn't it be nice? Wilson Love provides the winning edge for Oregon's top ten units

 


It's never happened before. They're the only team in the country that's doing it.

Five games into the season, and Oregon is number two in the country in scoring offense at 51.6 points per game. That part was commonplace in the years of Chip Kelly and Marcus Mariota.

The rare part is that the defense is keeping pace. Currently Oregon's stingy, salty defensive unit is 8th in the nation in scoring defense at 11.8 points per game, 3rd in yards per play defense at 4.02 points per game.

They are the only team in the nation with a top ten offense AND a top ten defense, something Duck fans lamented for years. "If only our defense could keep up with our offense..." Now it does. This defense has muscle.

Credit goes all around. The coaches made some terrific off season portal moves to strengthen both units. Coordinators Will Stein and Tosh Lupoi have done a great job. The Ducks have excellent depth, particularly in the defensive line and secondary. That's kept them fresh. Even the fans have helped. The energy at Autzen Stadium and from the growing contingent at road games inspires greater effort.

But an underappreciated key in Oregon's 5-0 start and playoff contention is that this is, overall, the fastest, strongest and best-conditioned Oregon roster ever. Without fanfare or flamboyance, Wilson Love has transformed the Oregon strength and conditioning program.  Across position groups you will witness explosiveness, flexibility and functional strength.

On both sides of the ball, this is a physical team. Watch the surge and agility on this play by the defense during the Stanford game, from Jordan Burch (1) and Taki Taimani (55).

Even Oregon's wide receivers display improved strength. All season Troy Franklin and Traeson Holden have driven through defenders for first downs, delivered the blow to a tackler, like in the photo above.

It takes strength and explosion to make a catch like this touchdown from tight end Terrance Ferguson against The Cardinal, pulling the ball down over a defender. At the same time, nine months in the weight room provides the leverage and push the Oregon offensive is getting at the line of scrimmage, standing up the Stanford defense.

Posted by Dale Bliss at 4:58 AM 0 comments

Sunday, October 1, 2023

Ducks shake off first quarter lethargy to stun Stanford, 42-6

 


On a Saturday when the PAC-12's two other 5-0, top-ranked teams struggled to put away opponents on the road, the Oregon Ducks stumbled early but surged through the last three quarters to best Stanford in Palo Alto, 42-6.

It was a game that started with eerie portents and a creeping familiarity. Oregon struggled out of the gate while the hosts put together two long field goal drives, choking the clock. After The Cardinal's Joshua Karty nailed a 53-yard field goal on the first play of the second quarter they led 6-0. Stanford had 120 yards of offense in the first fifteen minutes of the game. The Ducks had run just three plays, gaining a total of six yards. Bo Nix missed an open Tez Johnson on a deep shot on third and 4.

With their opening possession of the second quarter the Ducks misfired again. Bucky Irving ran for four, Nix was flushed out of the pocket and missed Irving down the right sideline, on a throw he didn't have time to set his feet and bounced to his receiver, then threw underneath to his running back again on third down, stopped short of the sticks. Oregon chose to punt on 4th and three, their second three and out in two possessions.

A sack by Evan Williams got the defense off the field in 5 plays.

It was 9:08 of the second quarter before the Quack Attack made a first down, on a keeper to the left side by Nix. That led to a six-play, 69-yard touchdown drive. Nix hit the ever-reliable Troy Franklin for 13 yards, then Jordan James busted loose behind Josh Conerly and Marcus Harper II for a 13-yard run followed by a 30-yard touchdown run and a 7-6 lead.

Jordan Burch burst through the line on third and five to tackle Lake Oswego product Casey Filkins for a loss and Stanford went three and out.

Ahead now, Nix and the offense found their rhythm, driving 75 yards in six plays. Nix hit Franklin on passes of 15, 12 and 11 yards, Irving ran for 11, then on 2nd and 4 from the Stanford 17, he performed a shake, bake and stiff arm to power his way for a TD, again behind the duo of Conerly and Harper.

The Ducks led 14-6 at the half. After his early struggles Nix settled down to complete 12-15 passes for 96 yards, and the Oregon o-line powered Irving and James to 94 yards and the two touchdowns, 10.2 yards a carry. Burch spearheaded the defensive effort with 5 tackles, two of them for loss. Williams, Khyree Jackson and Mase Funa all had sacks. After their 120-yard start Stanford managed just four net yards in the second quarter. 

The pattern continued in the second half. Unleashed now, the Oregon offense would score six unanswered touchdowns, 4 second half TD passes by Nix, two to Troy Franklin, a back shoulder throw high over the defender to Troy Franklin, then a slant zipped to Traeshon Holden with 11:33 to go in the fourth quarter to reach 42-6.

Stanford would not score again, the defense getting back-to-back sacks from Bay Area product and true freshman linebacker Jerry Mixon and then veteran Brandon Dorlus. Dontae Manning and Nikko Reed made nice plays in the secondary. Ty Thompson took over at quarterback. The Ducks reached the Cardinal 31, then took a knee twice to end the game.

After the game Dan Lanning told the press, “We started off a little slow, but we kicked it into gear. I thought our guys responded. We just had to get through that lull to start."

They'll probably need a stronger start in two weeks when they face UW in Seattle. The Huskies reached 5-0 in the PAC-12's nightcap by edging Arizona 31-24 in the desert. In Boulder, Colorado USC jumped out to a big lead then hung on to beat the Buffs 48-41. Shedeur Sanders shredded a suspect Trojan defense for 371 yards and 4 TDs; Colorado piled up 564 yards of offense, but Caleb Williams threw six touchdown passes to win the shootout.

Those are matchups for another day. In Palo Alto the salty Oregon defense churned out 5 sacks and 11 tackles for loss to establish itself as the league's most dominant. The Ducks outgained Stanford 506-222 and they were perfect in the Red Zone. Three times the defense stopped them on fourth down.

Posted by Dale Bliss at 5:03 AM 0 comments

Saturday, September 30, 2023

Game Day notes: Ducks seek first 5-0 start since 2013, and the continuous improvement needed to win the conference

 


Oregon's biggest concerns going into the season were the offensive line and secondary, and both those units are rounding into championship form as PAC-12 play starts in earnest.

Rhode Island transfer Ajani Cornelius has established himself as the anchor and pacesetter on the o-line. The group has allowed just three sacks while rushing for a league-best 232 yards a game, sixth-best in the nation.

In 158 pass blocking snaps, Cornelius has allowed zero pressures, according to Pro Football Focus. Mobile and powerful, he and his teammates have paved the way for Bucky Irving to rush for 305 yards on 37 carries, an eye-popping 8.24 yards per attempt. 

Scoring 54 points a game the Ducks rarely punt or kick field goals, but punter Ross James and placekicker Camden Lewis have been nearly flawless to start the season. James has averaged a booming 52.4 yards on his 7 punts, while Lewis, a senior from North Carolina is 6-for-6 on field goals, 20-for-20 on extra points, plus he's booted 29 of 33 kickoffs into the end zone for touchbacks.

The Oregon kickoff team has allowed only 5 kickoff returns in 4 games, for an average of 17.6 per return, 4th in the conference.

Meanwhile the Oregon defense is number one in the PAC-12 against the pass, allowing just 158.8 yards per game. They've been disruptive, getting to the quarterback for 13 sacks after recording only 18 all last season.

Alabama transfer Khyree Jackson has emerged as a lockdown corner. He's broken up 4 passes and intercepted two, 4th on the team in tackles with 14.

Ole Miss transfer Tysheem Johnson leads the team with 24 tackles, Jeffrey Bassa has 19 (plus a game-clinching Pick Six against Texas Tech) and walk-on Bryce Boettcher has 16 tackles, a fumble recovery and a sack.  

Former South Carolina Gamecock Jordan Burch is Oregon's sack master with three, Jamal Hill has chipped in two plus a forced fumble. Fresno transfer Evan Williams has been stellar, 11 tackles, 1.5 sacks in three games.   

The transfers, Burch, Cornelius, Johnson, Jackson and Williams are at the heart of this 4-0 start. Add receivers Gary Bryant, Traeshon Holden and Tez Johnson, plus consider that Bo Nix and Bucky Irving came via the portal last year, and you can make a case that the Oregon coaches use it as well as anyone. They not only acquire players with talent; they find players who fit and enhance the culture.

Posted by Dale Bliss at 5:30 AM 0 comments

Friday, September 29, 2023

Ducks seek to bring their own juice to Leland Stanford Stadium, a potent offense and a stifling pass rush. That has to be enough, right?


 It's a playing field with ghosts, of improbable agonies and miracle comebacks, of PAC-12 ref outrages, of big dreams that died young, of graceful runs that ended in a spastic tic. 

For years Stanford has been the bugaboo, the Waterloo, the rock in the shoe, the albatross. That ends now, literally, because this is the final year that Oregon and The Cardinal will meet as conference opponents, unless some future round of cash-grab realignment throws them together in the next sweep of the invisible hand.

Four times in the last 14 years the Ducks have come to the game against the Trees as a Top Team ten, only to lose one that got away. Since 2009, the series is 7-7. 

Oregon currently owns a win streak of 16 straight games against unranked opponents. They're seeking to become 5-0 for the first time since 2013, Marcus Mariota's sophomore year and Mark Helfrich's first as head coach. That team reached 8-0 and number two in the country before a November 7 game with... number six Stanford. 

They lost 26-20 in Palo Alto, then lost again November 23 at Arizona, finishing 11-2 after a 30-7 win in the Alamo Bowl over Texas.

On Wednesday Dan Lanning said, “This is a bring-your-own juice game. It’s going to be a different atmosphere. But if you step on the grass and it means something to you, you’re going to step on there and try to perform to a certain level because you have pride in the game.”

If the Ducks do perform to that level it would give them four wins over Stanford (and their iconoclastic band and ghastly tree mascot) in the last five games. That should be enough to retire the supposed curse, more certain than sacrificing a goat.

Blood sacrifice shouldn't be necessary, because The Team That Uncle Phil Built can readily lay claim to what should be some decisive advantages in Palo Alto, 3:30 P.M. Pacific on the PAC-12 Network. Oregon is 4-0, second in the entire country in scoring offense at 54.0 points per game. 

By contrast, the Stanford offense is plodding and inept. In their 1-3 start they've scored just 22.5 points a game, 97th in the FBS. In new head coach Troy Taylor's first year their quarterbacks have been sacked 13 times. The once-vaunted Cardinal are 126th in pass defense. 119th in sacks allowed per game. 120th in total defense. They allow 307 yards a game through the air.

Stanford Last 4

DATE OPP RESULT

9/23/23 vsARIZ L21-20

9/16/23 vsSAC L30-23

9/9/23 @USC L56-10

9/1/23 @HAW W37-24

Worse yet, they perform before lackluster and uninspired crowds. These aren't the formidable denizens of intellectual brutality Jim Harbaugh and David Shaw led out of the tunnel. Harbaugh's moved on to Michigan and Shaw retired. In their last four campaigns beginning in 2019 The Cardinal are 4-8, 4-2, 3-9 and 3-9, losing the Big Game to Cal three out of the last four years. As a result they barely draw 30,000 to home games. It will be an echo chamber unless Bay Area Ducks muster a contingent. 

Provided Oregon executes and throws off the distractions of last week's emotional victory over Colorado, next week's bye, or the impending dream matchup with 4-0, number 7 Washington and current Heisman Trophy favorite Michael Penix in Husky Stadium on October 14, victory should be simple.

Yet we know it rarely is. The hosts feature a competent running game with three capable backs in EJ Smith IV (son of Emmitt, the NFL's all-time leading rusher), Sedrick Irvin (son of Sedrick senior, former star running back at Michigan State) and Casey Filkins (son of Lake Oswego, Oregon, The Cardinal's best back with 184 yards on 24 carries, 7.7 yards a pop.)

All three can be explosive. Filkins broke a 59-yard run against USC, a 47-yarder against Hawaii. Last week in a 21-20 home loss to Arizona Irvin bolted for 66 yards on 10 carries, including a 45-yard scamper on third and 7 on Stanford's first series of the game. 

In 2022 against the Ducks in Autzen Stadium, Filkins gashed them for 80 yards on 19 carries. He also caught a 42-yard touchdown pass from Tanner McKee, though Oregon won 45-27 behind four TDs from Bo Nix, two passing and two on the ground, including an 80-yard touchdown run.

Smith is a senior from Dallas, Texas. Over an injury-riddled college career he's flashed a bit of the ability that made his father an NFL legend, but uncertain health and bad blocking have limited his opportunities. Against Arizona he had just one carry for no gain. The week before in the loss to Sacramento State, 9 rushes for 71 yards. Against USC, 5 for 50. For the young season he's toted the rock 19 times for 135 yards, 7.1 a carry with one touchdown.

Here he is in the opening game of 2022, awaking the echoes for one shining moment. He suffered an injured leg a couple of weeks later, lost for the season. Greatness is a cruel mistress, slipping out the back door to have a cigarette, stubbing out the ash and leaving open the gate:

During their 4-0 start the Ducks have shown some vulnerability to the running game and a running quarterback, something they have to tighten up before future clashes with Washington, Utah and USC, all ranked in the AP Top Ten, an historic first for the conference. Traditional rival Oregon State pounds the ground for 225 yards a game, paced by the league's leader in rushing, tailback Damien Martinez.

A matchup with Stanford wouldn't be complete without a monster tight end in the Red and White. This year's version is 6-6, 242 Benjamin Yurosek, a senior from Bakersfield, California. He wears number 84. In 2023, he's grabbed 15 passes for 227 yards and a touchdown, 15.1 yards a catch.

Posted by Dale Bliss at 5:14 AM 0 comments

Thursday, September 28, 2023

He's coming home to a place that he remembers, but Troy Franklin has made a home in opponents' end zones. Soon, the NFL

 


Troy Franklin grew up in East Palo Alto, about three miles from the Stanford campus. He attended high school at Menlo-Atherton High in Menlo Park.

Coming out of high school he was the number two wide receiver prospect in the country, the second-highest the Ducks had ever signed, part of Mario Cristobal's last class as Oregon coach in 2021. Now in his third season, he's one of the best wide receivers in the country, tied for 2nd in the nation in touchdowns with five.

Against The Cardinal, he could be headed for another big day. They have the worst pass defense in the PAC-12, allowing 307 yards per game. Colorado, the team the Ducks thrashed 42-6 last week, stands 11th. There's a pattern here.

Franklin told reporters this week, "My standard is to always play at a high level." He has what scouts like to call a high football IQ. Since his days at Menlo-Atherton he's been the rarest kind of gifted player: meticulous about preparation and a student of film.

Former high school coach and mentor Adhir Ravipati told Tyson Alger of The Athletic that the 6-3, 187-pound wideout's exceptional talent was apparent very early. “That first summer of 7-on-7, he hadn’t even enrolled yet and he was already dominating varsity kids,” Ravipati said. “People were like, ‘Who is that kid?’ And I was like, ‘He’s 14.’

“Then I remember seeing him practice as a freshman and it was like, ‘Yep, this kid is going to be a national recruit.’ Took 10 minutes to see how talented he was.”

Three years later the whole country is waking up to what a special player he is, skyrocketing up draft boards with big plays, week after week. In the young season Franklin already has three one hundred-yard games, hauling in 25 passes for 418 yards, including a 72-yard bomb against Texas Tech and a 36-yard TD versus the Buffaloes.

In the second quarter with the Ducks leading 21-0, Colorado called a timeout with 2:42 to play. It didn't help, however. Nix had Franklin split out wide to the right.  The Buffaloes rushed three and dropped eight. Ajani Cornelius walled off the right side, and Josh Conerly the left. Jackson Powers-Johnson and Marcus Harper II double team the nose tackle, who's stymied at the line of scrimmage.

Nix had a perfect pocket, time to set up and throw. The Colorado safety bites hard on the out route, and Franklin is wide open over the middle for an easy score.

It was a nearly perfect play in an explosive offense, one of the many highlight moments in Franklin's dazzling Oregon career. Everybody knows they have to cover him, but hardly anyone can. 


Posted by Dale Bliss at 5:50 AM 0 comments
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