More Tales From the Stat Sheet

The Ducks play swarming, opportunistic team defense, and the evidence is all over the stat sheet.

The Forty-Tackle Club

Most teams have one or two players that dominate the tackle sheet, but the Ducks have a gang. Spencer Paysinger, Casey Matthews, Eddie Pleasant, John Boyett, and Talmadge Jackson all have 40 or more tackles, followed closely by active, tenacious linemen Brandon Bair and Kenny Rowe with 35 and 32 each, healthy numbers for defensive linemen. Next year’s linebacker corps, Michael Clay, Josh Kaddu and Bo Lokombo come next, with 25, 24, and 24 tackles. Kaddu has 4.5 tackles for loss, and Lokombo has 3 fumble recoveries, one for a touchdown. At their current pace, the Ducks could have 11 players with 40 or more tackles by the end of the year, a testament to their pursuit and effort on defense.

Swarming Trojan Crushers

For the USC game, seniors Paysinger and Matthews led all tacklers with 12 and 10 respectively. Lokombo had five and a fumble recovery. Talmadge Jackson, playing one of his best games in coverage, had 7 tackles and a couple of pass breakups, doing a creditable job in a secondary that contained Matt Barkley and his talented receivers. John Boyett continued his tough play with a solid game against the Trojans, seven tackles and an interception, very active in pass defense.

Kash Carries On

In other categories “Kash” Harris leads the Ducks with 12 passes defended and 5 interceptions. Nationally, he ranks 3^rd in passes defended, 5^th in punt returns, 4^th in interceptions, and first on the team in temporary trips to the doghouse.

Tenacious With the TFLs

Kenny Rowe leads the team with five sacks, and he now has 21.5 for his career. Bair has 13 tfls and Rowe 10. Among other loss leaders: Matthews, 5.5, Pleasant 5.0, Zac Clark 5.0, Kaddu and Terrell Turner 4.5.

The Ducks Are Consensus Number One, but Can They Stay There?

Yes. Oregon has the remaining strength of schedule to finish number one if they win out. They control their own destiny.

How exciting is it to watch the reveal on the BCS Countdown show? Oregon is number one in the country.

This team has the coaching and resolve to stay there. They won't look ahead, behind or in the mirror. Washington is next. It's always fun to beat the Huskies. Plenty of reasons to be motivated for a traditional rival.

The team continues to be healthy, showing improvement, developing depth. Bo Lokombo had a monster game at outside linebacker, and Josh Kaddu had a big sack. Josh Huff has made himself an extra element in the offense.

This is a very special year.

The Helmet-to-Helmet Hit Controversy

Everything reasonable has to be done to protect the players from catastrophic injury, but there has to be some discernment on the part of officials.

Late in the game John Boyett put a stick on a USC receiver on a critical third down play and the announcers were calling for a helmet-to-helmet penalty.

Watch the replay closely and you can readily see Boyett turned his shoulder and led with the shoulder. The receiver (I can't remember if it was Woods or Johnson) actually lowered his head toward Boyett.

As it was there was a flag thrown on the play, very late, but it wasn't for the hit. Javes Lewis got it for taunting the receiver after the play. The USC and Oregon players had been jawing all game, and the Trojans had a lot to say in the papers in the week leading up to the game, so it seemed like a ticky-tack call. That's stuff you warn off. Potentially it gave SC a big break in the game, turning a big stop into a first down. Even so, Lewis suffered a loss of discipline that could have cost his team in a closer game. He extended a possession needlessly, simply by talking trash.

Good officials throw fewer flags but keep better control. In policing helmet-to-helmet hits, officiating crews will have to make important distinctions in a split second, and not all of them are up to the task.

What the Ducks Win Over USC Means

It means they are 8-0, and still playing for the PAC-10 title and the national championship.

It means they are the dominant team in the conference, and USC's dominance is officially broken. USC is 2-3 so far this year in the PAC-10, after going 5-4 last year. In spite of what assistant coach John Baxter said, they are no longer SC, not in the sense they once were. And these Ducks are no longer the Ducks the Trojans once dominated and intimidated. Oregon took their best shot on Saturday, and stuffed them, ran them ragged and overran them. It was shock and awe football. The Trojans now believe what they openly doubted before the game. They are forced to admit it. Oregon is that good.

It means there are no more doubts and questions about Oregon's ability to score or defend or overcome a particular situation. Oh, they'll be tested by Washington, Cal, Arizona, and Oregon State, but the critics can no longer say they haven't faced a talented team or a fast team or a physical team or a capable opponent on the road. They've trailed in games and played in close games and come from behind in the second half. All those questions have been emphatically answered. They'll be favored in their final four games.

It means they have to keep working to get better and finish the job. They still could have a stumble. Washington has talent, and they'll save their best effort for the Ducks. They beat USC on the road. Cal is tough at home. Arizona has a crashing defense and weapons on offense. Oregon State is a rivalry game, where anything has happened, and this year it's in Corvallis. Their bowl opponent will have four weeks to prepare, possibly five.

Yet the players and coaches would tell us that it doesn't mean anything. 8-0 just guarantees 8-4 and a trip to the Sun Bowl. And that would be a hideous disappointment. On Monday they'll begin preparing the way they always do, as if they were 0-0 or in the Super Bowl all at once.

These players understand and believe in what they are doing. They don't need validation from outside influences and aren't bothered by criticism. They aren't distracted by partial success and increasing attention. It leaves them free to focus all their energy on preparing in exactly the right way. In that sense, this is the best-coached team in the country, and the most mature. Even if the cheese on the nachos occasionally drips over the plate.

Tales From the Stat Sheet

Darron Thomas so far this season: 192-317, 60.7% 1827 yards, 21 tds, 6 interceptions, passer rating 160.56. He's 13th in the country in pass efficiency, 24th in total offense, and 10th in points responsible for. He's rushed 50 times for 311 yards, a 6.2 yard average.

Quarterback play was the the biggest doubt critics and pundits expressed about Oregon going into the season. Oregonian writers Ken Goe and John Hunt predicted the team would go 8-4 this year, and one writer in the PAC-10's annual tour had them finishing ninth. Thomas obliterated the doubts. He's been steady, effective, and remarkably cool in the pocket, and the offense has thrived under his quiet leadership. His 21 tds passing are the most since Dennis Dixon had 20 in 2007.

Oregon is first in the nation in total offense points scored, 4583 yards, 572.9 per game and 54.88 points. For the season they have 2113 yards passing (28th) and 2470 rushing (3rd, behind Air Force and Georgia Tech, two teams that run almost exclusively). Oregon's balance is a devastating weapon. Teams can't key on one player or one phase of the game without being exploited for it.

Oregon is 35th in total defense, but gives up 4.49 yards per play. The defense, despite being much maligned, does everything they are asked to do. They defend more plays and more possessions than any team in the country. In the second half, where games are won and lost, the Ducks have outscored opponents 142-28.

Here are some key elements of 8-0:

Sacks 21 Sacks Allowed 3

Takeaways (Turnovers Gained) 28 Giveaways (Turnovers Lost) 15

Punt Return Yds 478 (4 tds) Punt Return Yardage Defense 102

Passes Intercepted 15 (2 tds) Passes had intercepted 6

Touchdowns 55 Field Goals 10 Touchdowns Allowed 17 Field Goals 8

Red Zone Offense 88% Red Zone Defense 62% (3rd in the nation)

Oregon was 13-19 on third down conversions at USC.

For the season the Ducks have converted 49.1% on third downs, 10th in the nation

They've allowed opponents to convert on 33.1% on third downs, 16th in the nation

On fourth down they've converted 13-20 (65%), while allowing opponents to convert 3-17 (17.7%)

Watching Back the Video, the Teachable Moments in a 21--point Win

Duck fans have to love this team, for their focus, maturity and resilience. A lesser team would have folded on the road, after USC's crazy-carom interception and big punt return, two short-field touchdowns back-to-back to take a 32-29 lead in the third quarter. The Ducks immediately responded, asserting their will on the Trojans with a 24-0 finish. LaMichael James and the offensive line ran for half their yards from that point forward.

Still, there were teachable moments, and areas where Oregon can and must improve to win five more games. Incredible to say it, even though we've dreamed of this all our lives as fans, and envisioned it with fierce specificity since February. Oregon could win a national championship. Right now they are playing the best football in the country.

The combination of explosive running, crisp downfield passing and a swarming, opportunistic defense that contests every yard has the Ducks on the cusp of greatness. They've won eight games and the closest one was by 11 points with the offense under wraps for most of the fourth quarter. LaMichael James has rarely been needed for four quarters, and both times he was he responded with over two hundred yards against the Webfoots' two most formidable opponents. Darron Thomas can stretch the field. With the defense forced to respect the threat of the pass, LMJ has room to run, and that gives Oregon one of the most entertaining and effective offenses in memory.

But there were four too manys, two shouldas, a coulda and one what the hell:

Too many drops. At least six by my count, two each by David Paulson, Lavasier Tuinei, and Jeff Maehl. Those three have done a lot of wonderful things in an Oregon uniform this season, but there were a handful of plays they didn't help their quarterback.

Darron Thomas does a great job of getting rid of the football and avoiding sacks, but that was one time he probably should have taken one on that play just before half. The blocking broke down and he was trapped. It could have just as easily been a scoop and score.

Too many missed blocks. Too many plays where the linemen were beaten off the ball and standing up helpless behind the play, with the defensive interior blowing up the running game for negative plays and big hits on the Ducks' biggest asset.

On the defensive pass rush, there were too many plays the Ducks got pushed upfield and out of the play, doing a wide circle around "Brock" Barkley, giving him an unobstructed view and too much time, and a huge gap a more mobile quarterback (like Jake Locker) could have exploited for huge yardage.

Too many slants, outs, and skinny posts. The Ducks gave ground in the passing game in 15-yard chunks, although they avoided explosion plays. USC's longest gain from scrimmage was 25 yards, but there were too many in the 15-20 yard range.

Eddie Pleasant is still getting his feet under him as a safety. He's a hitter and a hard worker, but he could have three picks in this game with a better feel for where he was in relation to the ball. He must continue to improve his footwork, anticipation and agility.

Cliff Harris high-stepped when he should have turned on the jets. He's the cheese on the nachos, but he has to learn to respect the role of the chips. His playmaking flair is entertaining to watch, but he can't let it interfere with getting the job done.

The punt coverage team had its worst game of the season. After limiting opponents to 8 yards of returns all season, Ronald Johnson torched them for 4 returns for 94 yards. They took bad angles and ran into blocks. They missed him. Robert Woods also had a 39-yard kickoff return, where the most valuable kicker in the conference, Rob Beard made a saving tackle. Coverage units get a D grade for this game.

Oh, any too many penalties, 8 for 83 yards. That's four-fifths of a football field in self-inflicted wounds, drive killers, drive-extenders, and giving hope to the hopeless.

Big Play Extravaganza

LaMichael James 3 tds 239 yards, with runs of 19, 42 (td), 15 and 45 yards. James at 1210 yards in 7 games.

Josh Huff 20-yd run, 57-yard reception

Jeff Maehl 8 catches, 145 yds td receptions of 45, 30 and 15 yards

Lavasier Tuinei 33 yd td catch

Darron Thomas 21-yard run, four tds passing

The Ducks have tremendous balance and multiple playmakers. 599 yards of offense on the road against USC. Too bad they took a knee for -1 on the final play.

They are still USC, but Oregon is still the Ducks.

LaMichael James had 11 carries for 109 yards and a touchdown in the fourth quarter.  Ducks threw one pass in the quarter, and outscored SC 10-0 in the 4th while scoring the last 24 points of the game.   Chip’s not a statement guy, but that’s a statement.

 

Stanford won handily, 41-0 over Washington, whom the Ducks have next.  The SOS component of the computer rankings should tick upward, and a convincing win on the road over SC has to solidify Oregon’s position as number one in the human polls.  Missouri and Michigan State fell from the ranks of the unbeaten, so that has to help the Ducks in the computers as well.

 

It Sure Feels Good to Be a Gangster

Oregon kickers again rock solid.  Beard 1-1, 6-6; Rice 5 punts 46.4 yard average, 2 inside the 20.

 

LT Tuinei with a good game as the number two option in the passing game, 7 catches 78 yards and a 33 yd TD.

 

Every time Josh Huff touches the ball it has the potential to be a big play.  He doesn’t yet get a lot of touches, but the ones he gets, he makes the most of.

 

Down the road, they’re going to get Kenjon back, and that will be a lift for the offense.

 

Wonder if the Ducks will make Game Day again this year.  Chip has spent a lot of time at their desk.

 

USC 3.1 per rush, 5.4 yds per pass.  They ran 85 plays for 376 yards, with 3 turnovers and a turnover on downs.  Trojans’ longest run: 12 yards.  Longest pass: 25.    Ducks had six different players with gains of more than 20 yards.  Memo to Jurrell Casey:  the rest of the players are pretty good.

 

Good thing the game was on grass instead of turf, or they might have scored 70.  Lezgo.

 

Postgame

LaMichael a career-high 39 carries, 239 yards.

 

Ducks outscored them 24 unanswered points from the middle of the third quarter on.  The pace, depth and conditioning clearly made a difference.  Ducks overcame some bad breaks and penalties, and played with poise, determination and focus.

 

Darron Thomas a career-high four touchdown passes.  He was decisive and in command, and ran the offense extremely well.

 

Cliff Harris with a int and a 41-yard punt return.  John Boyett with another big pick, in the red zone.

 

Ducks outgained USC 599-377, and a chunk of USC’s yards came on a meaningless drive at the end of the game for no points.

 

Washington is next.

Now the Trojans are getting cheap yards

Down 21, dinking and dunking.  Another reason why the Duck defensive stats are misleading.

A Sweet Statement at the Coliseum

Tremendous game by Jeff Maehl, and that makes three in a row.

Have to start calling Matt Barkley by his new nickname.

Keys to this game: the “fraud” Oregon defense held SC to 88 yards rushing, and kept all the pass plays in front of them. Two picks of Brock Barkley.

The offense was scintillating. There can be no doubt. This was a road win against a team that was supposed to be a dangerous roadblock. Oregon is four wins from a trip to Glendale.

LaMichael James is the best running back in college football, and the Duck is the most physically fit mascot, except for possibly Ralphie the Buffalo.

And that is why John Boyett is your free safety

Giving another toughness lesson to Chuck Norris. He wanted to get up and run.

LaMichael James now has 218 yards. That is a Heisman-worthy performance in a big game.

4th Quarter

Kenny Rowe with a tenacious play, and then a great stop by the defense.

 

LaMichael is starting to feel it.

Punch it in and take it away

Cam Newton has a lock on the Heisman, but the Ducks have an academic All-American at tailback,  and he has 128 yards and two touchdowns.

 

One more stop and one more score and the Trojans will be done.

This is Oregon football

A crisp drive, using all the weapons.  Exactly what the situation called for.  Trojan defense looks tired, giving ground. Blatant penalty.

Deee-fense

They’ve got to get some pressure on Barkley.  But a tip is good.  And so is a three and out.

 

Now a heavy dose of the zone read, and a touchdown drive.

The best, most resilient quarterback on this field

Is Darron Thomas. 

 

That fourth point is precious right now. 

 

LaMichael over a hundred, and he’ll get a bunch more in the 4^th quarter.

Ducks desperately need a shift in momentum

They’ve given it all to the Trojans.

 

Weems missed a block on the tip.

 

Too many flags.

 

The line needs to get it gear, and so does the defense.

An ugly, unlucky break

Tipped ball caroms perfectly.

Halftime

Ducks have done a good job against the Trojan running game—24 carries for 58 yards.

 

With their depth issues and relative unfamiliarity with Oregon’s pace, Ducks should take this game over in the second half.

 

Auburn stays unbeaten, clubs Ole Miss 51-24.

Here's the Deal

Ducks get the ball to start the second half.  And USC can’t keep up.

 

Oregon looks purposeful, confident and focused.  I expect a glazed stare on the Trojan sideline by the start of the 4^th quarter.

 

Offensive line has to do a more consistent job.  They’re paving the way for big plays, but allowing too much penetration and too many negative plays.

 

The second half should belong to LaMichael James.

Mental Mistake by Darron

But it looked like a fumble to me.

You Know Why He's Here

And now Matt Barkley knows too.  That’s his fifth, which ties him with the national leaders going in.

This is a good sign

 Ducks up by 12, and they should own the second half.  Beating SC with big plays, and they’ve shown vulnerability to the big play all season.

 

Continue to be impressed by the way DT uses all five receivers.

 

Cliff Harris with another big play.  Should have trusted his speed on the last defender.

Drive, He Said

That 2-point conversion is a nice little insurance policy.  Ducks are 3-for-3 on that play this year, by my count.

 

Don’t like the silver and white.  Too washed out.

 

3^rd and long.  Maehl with the drop in close coverage.

Whew

Always hate giving them new life and extra possessions.  Be careful, Cliff.

Stupid stupid penalty negate a great defensive series

It’s fundamental—you have to take the correct angle to the kicker.

1st Quarter

Oregon drive: Nine plays, 76 yards in 2:24, and topped with a two-point conversion.

 

Defense gets lots of pressure on Barkley, a great sign.

Trading touchdowns for field goals

Thomas to Maehl for six.  Thomas continues to look comfortable in the pocket, finding the open man.

OK. Kickoff time

Lane Kiffin is a guy you love to hate.  Has a permanent smirk.

 

Oh-oh.  Defense getting pushed around, but holds them to a field goal.  Offense looks crisp.

Tales from the PAC-10 Undercard

Arizona State up 14-0 2^nd quarter over the Cougars.  Stanford dropping 28 on the Huskies in the first half 27-0.  So much for the battle of marquee quarterbacks:  Andrew Luck, 9-11 122 yards, Jake Locker 3-6, 27.   Luck also has a 51-yard scoring run.  Husky defense is porous.  Stepfan Taylor has 8 carries for 65 yards and 2 tds.  He’s becoming a very solid, reliable back in their system.

Are You Nervous Yet?

Masoli is 7-9 passing and Mississippi  is tied 14-14 with Auburn.  By the end of the day it could be the Ducks and the three dwarfs.

 

UCLA stubbornly staying with Arizona.  Weird game—Wildcats have dominated the stats, racking up lots of yards between the 20s but can’t punch it in.  Final minutes, looks like UA will escape with a win.

 

Beavers still having a field day with Cal 35-7.  That will get a hip hip hooray.  It’s a final now.

Roadkill Saturday Continues

A dream dies abruptly in Ames, Sparty trailing 37-0. Nebraska continues to handle Missouri 24-7, Tigers driving last I looked. UCLA hanging with Arizona but behind 26-14 in the third.

Rob Moseley reports the Ducks will be in silver and white, which I don't understand but accept once again that the kids like it.

California has to be the most inconsistent team in the FBS, getting blown out by OSU 35-0. Jacquizz rushing for 116 yards and counting, Markus Wheaton doing a James Rodgers impression with 6 carries for 73 yards. Brock Mansion in at quarterback for the Bears.

The Overrated and the Underappreciated

ESPN's K.C. Joyner says Terrelle Pryor is vastly overrated.

Iowa extends their lead to 23-0 over Michigan State midway through the second. Missouri got on the board but trails 24-7 to Nebraska, also 2nd quarter.

Scott is 10-14 passing versus the Bruins. Just busted a 24-yd run and they're in the red zone again. He gives them a different dimension than Foles.

Return of the Triple Threat Tailback

Quizz Rodgers shotputs a touchdown out of the wildcat formation, and the Beavs lead Cal 21-0. If they go on to win, at 3-1 OSU is solidly in the conference race, with a win over Arizona and USC, Stanford, and Oregon left on their schedule.

Arizona adds a field goal to go to 16-7.

Shockers and Slobberknockers on Road Block Saturday

Nebraska gets a 40-yard touchdown pass from Taylor Martinez, leads 24-0 over Missouri. Gabbert is 3-8 early, as the Huskers pass defense looks sharp.

Michigan State trailing 17-0 to Iowa. Okie State 24-14 over KSU, now a final, and they're 7-1 with Texas, Kansas and Oklahoma left.

With two more unbeatens on the ropes today, we're getting closer and closer to TCU versus Boise State for the national championship. Anybody think that's a good idea? Ducks or the Auburn Tigers have to run the table, it looks like. A one-loss Alabama might supplant Boise State, but an undefeated TCU would have a win over Utah, and that would be favorable for them.

Why UCLA Keeps Losing

Bruins had momentum after getting a stop on defense and making a first down to reach midfield, but Brehaut gives it away with an ill-advised toss down the sideline, locking on one receiver and throwing a ball he had no business throwing.

The Bruins don't have a big enough margin of error to be making plays like that. Arizona answers with a drive, and this one will be over early. UCLA has Scott exposed on a blitz, but the defender doesn't come in under control and he slips away.

Missed tackles and bad passes and no will to win, that's a recipe for continued failure.

Scoreboard Watching and Web Surfing

Ken Woody has a great breakdown of double coverage pass techniques and what receivers try to do to defeat them. Nobody does a better job of giving Duck fans an inside look at the game, from the perspective of a former player, coach and TV color man. He makes crucial details from the film room accessible to the average fan. His postgame articles are a must-read.

Nebraska up early on Missouri 7-0, running back Roy Helu jr. busting loose for a 66-yard on the Huskers' first offensive play. Missouri was an early three-and-out, three incompletions by Blaine Gabbert.

#5 Michigan State trailing Iowa 7-0 midway through the first quarter.

Matt Scott rolls right and tosses a long touchdown to a wide-open tight end for a 7-0 lead, but then UCLA answers with a drive after a long kick return, Derrick Coleman with an 11-yard scoring run, 7-7 in Pasadena.

Nebraska adds a field goal, 10-0. Tennessee falls 38-24 to South Carolina, now a final. Miami rallied but lost 24-19 to Virginia, the Cavaliers' first win in the ACC, a conference no one seems to want to win. Va Tech now looks like the dominant team out there, which helps Boise State.

If Tomorrow Never Comes

Sports dreams always end. They either end with the hoisting of the trophy and confetti and a rally and a parade through town, or they end bitterly, in lost opportunity and missed chances, in front of a charged-up crowd in a hostile stadium, shoved into the mud or the ground-up tire fragments by an inspired opponent.

The Ducks could lose tonight. It's not a jinx to admit that, not a curse, not a prediction. To win they have to solve the Trojan's passing game and limit breakdowns and big plays, have to avoid missed assignments and missed tackles, keep the Trojans from gathering momentum and sustaining the emotional energy they've built up in two weeks of preparing for and answering questions about the Ducks.

They don't think Oregon is very good. Defensive tackle Jurrell Casey said so, and assistant coach John Baxter announced it to the crowd at the USC jock rally in Heritage Hall:

"Just let it be known that we are SC," he said. "We'll always be SC. And they'll always be Ducks."

That's a pretty emphatic diss. The Ducks don't resort to cheap emotional ploys, but it's pretty clear that two years of mediocrity have done nothing to curb the Trojans' confidence, which still borders on arrogance. This is a team that lost four conference games last year, that was hit hard this summer by NCAA sanctions and lost 30 scholarships, and is just 2-2 in the league this season. They are the defending champions of nothing, still talking like the king of the hill

Even so, they still have talent. They are easily the most talented offense the Webfoots have yet played. Oregon will need their best defensive effort of the year to win, and Chip Kelly's vaunted offense will have to adjust quickly to the stunts, gap-shooting and pressure Monte Kiffin has been scheming for three weeks. While coaching for Tennessee last year he held Tim Tebow and Florida to 23 points, and no doubt he's worn out his seat in the video room studying what Arizona State and Ohio State did to the Ducks. He'll have his players flying around. The offensive line has to block them, and Darron Thomas and LaMichael James have to get them flying in the wrong direction, or ground them altogether.

Word is the Ducks will come out in silver and white uniforms, and the contrast could not be greater. USC will come adorned in their tradition, in cardinal and gold, with the white horse and the spear and the band blaring "Conquest" and "Fight On." They are SC. The Ducks are the new kid in town, the flavor of the month, the trendy, flashy interloper with the gimmicky offense. The Trojans are eager to assert themselves, to mug into the camera in the fourth quarter, to be interviewed after the game spouting jubilant sentences that start with "We knew if we came right at them..."

Tonight we'll find out if the dreams of Oregon fans are alive, or postponed again. At 7-0 the Ducks have done everything necessary to reach the pinnacle of excellence. Will they answer the bell, answer the questions, quiet the critics? Robert Smith of ESPN said again on Friday the Oregon defense was a fraud. Yet he picked them to win the game. The pundits are divided, but everyone who says they'll lose cites the defense as the reason. Many think the Ducks aren't ready for this next step, that they'll be beaten, intimidated and overwhelmed by the Trojans talent, speed, size and ability. They think SC found themselves in the victory over California, and they'll treat this game like their Super Bowl, a battle to rediscover the Trojan pride and mystique.

The Ducks have prepared for this game like any other, and have declined to spout off in the media. They've shown respect for the opponent, and they've been focused and purposeful in practice. While USC was overhauling their defensive schemes and tweeting bold predictions, they were watering the bamboo in their accustomed way.

We'll see which approach works better. Kickoff is 5 p.m. on ABC.

Game day Notes and News

Corso put on the Duck head. Kiffin says they're going to play a lot of people on defense. Two problems: they don't normally do so, and they don't have a lot of people. They're thin on defense, with some key injuries and players coming off of injuries, including starting defensive linemen Nick Perry and Wes Horton.

Ken Goe has a pregame report. Kenjon Barner is traveling. Hard to think he will suit up or play. Too soon for that. A USC assistant coach, John Baxter, is popping off.

Early scores: South Carolina over Tennessee 24-17. The Vols might go winless in the SEC, not good for the Ducks. On Thursday, #16 Florida State lost 24-10 to North Carolina State. #17 Oklahoma State 17-7 over Kansas State. Virginia up 23-0 on #22 Miami, and this hurts Ohio State. Jacory Harris knocked out of the game.

National Games with Duck Implications

There are seven unbeatens left, and Alabama lurks. The Ducks have to win to stay in the national title chase, although they'd still control their destiny for the Rose Bowl regardless, with a win over Stanford on the books and a game to come against Arizona at home in November.

Here are the games this week Duck fans have to watch, keeping in mind USC is the most important game played this week:

(one has already happened)

#3 Boise State 49, Louisiana 20

The Shetlands had another one-sided victory against another tomato can opponent in the Tuesday night not-so-special, Kellen Moore passing for two scores and receiving a touchdown on a trick play.

#1 Auburn at Mississippi

Masoli can win one last game for the Ducks, and fans have to wonder about a possible letdown for the Tigers after three wins over ranked opponents and several close calls. 8-0 Auburn has won three games by a field goal and a couple of others by a touchdown, and Ole Miss coach Houston Nutt has a knack for upsets, producing about one a year in his long coaching career. Auburn's defense is vulnerable if Masoli can get a hot hand or find room to ramble on the ground.

The Tigers' remaining games include Chattanooga at home (another reason why the SEC always has so many ranked teams) then they host Georgia before ending the regular season at Alabama on November 26. Georgia is hot right now, winners of three in a row after a slow start and playing much better football. Despite their one loss, Alabama may be the most balanced team in the country.

Should the Tigers survive these, they'd likely face a return match with South Carolina in the SEC title game, but this year everyone knows the real SEC title game is November 26 at Bryant-Denny Stadium, a day after the Ducks take on Arizona at Autzen. The BCS matchup could be finalized while we go to the kitchen for leftover pumpkin pie.

#4 TCU at UNLV

The Horned Frogs travel to #8 Utah next week. UNLV is 1-6, the one win over lowly New Mexico. TCU's senior quarterback Andy Dalton has 14 touchdowns this year against 5 picks, leading a well-balanced attack that features tailback Ed Wesley, who has rushed for 874 yards and nine tds. Their defense ranks 1st in the country in points against at 9 per game.

#5 Michigan St at #18 Iowa

The Spartans have enjoyed a Cinderella season thus far with fake punts and fake field goals and circus catches and miracle comebacks and a coach on the mend from a heart attack. They duck Ohio State this year, so tomorrow's game in Kinnick Stadium is their last in the regular season against a ranked opponent, having bested Michigan and Wisconsin earlier this month. They finish home against Minnesota and Purdue, then travel to Penn State on November 27th. The Hawkeyes are tough at home, 3-1 in Ames this year after last week's heart breaker, a 31-30 loss to the Badgers.

#6 Missouri at #14 Nebraska

Most pundits have these Tigers on top of their upset watch list this week after last Saturday's take-down-the-goalposts win over Oklahoma. Smashmouth, 6-1 Nebraska is a tough matchup for Missouri. The Huskers rank 5th in the country in rushing and the visitors are 23rd in rush defense. Missouri's Blaine Gabbert will try to test a pass defense that ranks second in the country.

#8 Utah at Air Force

This has been a close series over the years, the last two games going to the last 58 seconds in 2008 (the Utes' only loss that year), and to overtime last season. The Falcons are 4-0 at home. This game is a complete contrast of styles. Utah quarterback Jordan Wynn completes 69.8% of his throws out of a pass-first spread, while Air Force is first in the country in rushing offense at 326.5 yards a game.

Number seven Alabama is idle this week, resting up for next week's game at LSU.

Friday Walk-Through: News, Notes and Web Bites on Oregon at USC

The Crabby Fighting Duck doesn't fear the spear. He doesn't waste time talking trash, and can add to 44 or score 44 in no time at all. No need to talk smack when you can deliver a few smacks instead. He knows a few of those four and five stars will be seeing stars by the fourth quarter: Kaboom!

Adam Jude of the Register-Guard has a feature on our favorite subject, Oregon cornerback Cliff Harris, the big-play, lock-stuff-down artist in the Duck secondary. In includes some amusing recollections from Harris' high school coach, Tim McDonald, who happens to be a former USC great, and the father of Trojan safety T.J. McDonald. Harris and the younger McDonald have been tweeting each other all week. Jude sums up Harris pretty well: "cocky, talented, unflappable--and still learning."

Kash expects to make big plays and loves a big stage, and this is the biggest game the Ducks have played so far. It will be interesting to see if "the cheese on top of the nachos" makes a difference-making play against the upset-minded SC squad. He and the Oregon secondary will be tested, facing the conferences best receiving tandem in Robert Woods and Ronald Johnson. Quarterback Matt Barkley is a future NFL first round draft pick, sixth in the country in passing with 1869 yards and 20 touchdowns against just four picks.

If Harris could turn one or two around the other way tomorrow, it would help the Ducks' cause immensely. The Trojans have a lot of talent on offense, and will try to keep the ball away from the Ducks. In a game that figures to be high-scoring, every possession and every stop will be precious. Oregon needs Harris to win a few of those confrontations downfield, hopefully contributing a big play or two of his own.

Mel Bracht of the Oklahoman newspaper caught up with Mike Bellotti, who says he's enjoying announcing and undecided about a return to coaching. This weekend the coach has Colorado at Oklahoma Saturday night on ESPN2, a game that doesn't figure to get a lot of attention with Oregon-USC going out to about 80% of the country. Bellotti told Bracht that he's had both knees replaced since leaving the sidelines, one of the many reasons he needed the two-year break. He says he's not surprised by Oregon's success this year, given their depth and talent and what he calls "a unique system."

Can't help but wonder if the Coach wouldn't be tempted to take a crack at that system himself, say at Arizona State or WSU. On camera on ESPN's "The Experts" a couple of weeks ago he was effusive in his praise of the facilities at Minnesota. He likes announcing, he says, but the travel is wearying. As an analyst he gets to stay in the game without the pain of losing, but he doesn't have the rush of victory either.

Coach Bellotti handles interviews with grace, and generally avoids the verbal landmines, diatribes and unfortunate references to history that plague other coaches. It would be interesting to know how he really feels about Oregon's success since he left, success that has surpassed and supplanted what he achieved here. Surely he deserves much credit for creating the foundation, but there was a degree to which he was nudged out the door at Oregon, leaving in a cloud of misunderstanding over the athletic director contract. Would the Ducks have done as well if he were still on the sidelines? Does he miss being in charge? Does he regret never getting a clean shot at a national title of his own? Those questions are too pointed, but they remain. In any case, he was the perfect bridge between Brooks and Kelly, and did a great deal to advance Oregon football.

Pat Forde of ESPN has Oregon on his upset watch list. Not an unreasonable conjecture, given the fate of several number ones and Game Day participants this season, especially in road games against talented opponents.

Saturday the country will find out if the Ducks are as special as they have looked against mediocre competition, or as overrated as Jurrell Casey says they are.

Dwight Jaynes has some timely advice on college football: don't bet on it. The games are way too unpredictable, he says, allowing that he thinks the Ducks will win Saturday, but it won't be easy on the road.

John Wise of One Perfect Season has a breakdown of the matchup, including the key numbers. Oregon has outscored opponents 156-23 in the second half, and leads the nation in turnover ratio at +1.71. The Ducks rank 7th in defensive pass efficiency, while the Trojans are 89th.

Turnovers aren't luck, although luck is an element. Speed, aggression, depth, conditioning and mental toughness created these numbers, and Oregon will have those advantages, no matter how high the grass is.

Michael Lev of the Orange County Register has it 38-35 Oregon, saying, "USC's offense is very good; Oregon's is the best in the nation." He points out another stat that could be a factor in the game: Rob Beard is perfect on field goals this year, while the Trojans' Joe Houston is 4 for 8, and unproven beyond 40 yards. This is a game that could hinge on a kick, with SC already losing two this year on last-minute field goals. Lev said of the Ducks, "This is their time. The Trojans are a year away."

Phil Steele, that cock-eyed pessimist, sees it differently as he always does. He predicts USC 38, UO 37. "USC is playing with revenge," he explains, figuring revenge and home-field advantage as the critical difference-makers in the game. Keep in mind Steele predicted Oregon to lose to Stanford, and in his preseason magazine, had OSU picked to win the conference at 8-1.

Home field advantage and revenge have their effect, but character is the critical difference. Chip Kelly's team is the most self-directed, mature and focused fans have seen in many years. Here are some features on Darron Thomas, from Ken Goe of the Oregonian, and Mark Asper and Bo Lokombo from Lucas Clark and Robert Husseman of the Daily Emerald. Offensive tackle Darrion Weems tells Goe that Thomas "is one of the toughest guys I've ever been around." Clark notes that Asper has recorded 54 pancake blocks, 2nd on the the team to center Jordan Holmes.

Thomas has earned the respect of his teammates, not with words, but leadership by example. Lokombo and Asper have interesting personal stories, Lokombo born in the Congo and emigrating to Canada with his family, Asper from a small town in Idaho and embarking on a two-year Mormon mission to Spain before his college football career. Asper is the oldest Duck at 25, and he and his wife are expecting their second baby in December, a girl.

The crabby fighting Duck is always cheered to hear about new Ducklings on the way, and he has a double fighting bolo punch or two of his own to hatch on Saturday. Those mouthy Trojans are in for a surprise. Brock Lesnar? No, better Duck. Kapow!

PAC-10 Predictions, Week 9: Busting Through the Roadblock Saturday

Dismal week of predicting last week. I got enamored with road dogs based on their last performance and went 2-2, bringing the season record to 42-8. Unlike Jurrell Casey, I don't talk trash with a mediocre record.

#15 Arizona (6-1, 3-1) at UCLA (3-4, 1-3)

Matt Scott played brilliantly in the win over Washington, and the Bruins suffered a 7th-round knockout in their loss to Oregon. UCLA starter Prince is out for the season with a knee injury, so it's Richard Brehaut's job now. Foles might be available for the Wildcats. Bruin free safety Dalton Hilliard suffered a concussion in practice Wednesday and is doubtful.

Arizona ranks 10th in the country and 1st in the PAC-10 in total defense, first in the conference in rushing defense. The Bruins are 102th in rushing defense, 117th in passing offense, and 106th in turnover margin.

Neuheisel may have to take to the microphone again after the game, but the fans will start filing out at the end of third quarter.

Arizona 41, UCLA 13

Washington St (1-7, 0-5) at Arizona St (3-4, 1-3)

The Cougs could get their first PAC-10 win here. They've played tough against the conference leaders and have a respectable passing offense. But they don't run the football well and are 119th in rushing defense and 113th in pass efficiency defense. Here's the most dangerous stat: they're 119th in sacks allowed, and the Wildcats have aggression and quickness in the front seven.

ASU's biggest problem is they don't take good care of the football, ranking 116th in turnover margin. They're coming off a disappointing loss at Cal where they were soundly outplayed, and must win this game to keep slim bowl hopes alive. Steven Threet, who suffered a concussion against the Bears, has 11 passes intercepted in PAC-10 play while throwing only six touchdowns.

It's homecoming for the Sun Devils, who've been on the road since their September 25 date with the Ducks.

An ugly and uninteresting game, probably. Erickson is 3-0 at ASU against the Cougars, where he started his checkered coaching odyssey.

Arizona State 21, Washington State 20


California (4-3, 2-2) at Oregon St (3-3, 2-1)

The Beavers are coming off a bye and the Bears off a big win at home. Surprisingly, OSU ranks 119th in the country in total defense and 114th in pass defense. The Bears have been stout at home but are 0-3 on the road. Riley's teams are typically tough in the second half of the season and tough after a bye, and the Beavers have won nine of eleven against Cal. Interestingly, these two gave #15 Arizona their two toughest games of the years, Cal losing 10-9 and the Beavs pulling off the upset.

Quizz Rodgers says he's going to bring the killer instinct, and Ryan Katz has had time to recover from a bad game in Seattle.

Oregon State 28, Cal 24

Stanford (6-1, 3-1) at Washington (3-4, 2-2)

Stanford has Arizona next, but Harbaugh's team is too disciplined and tough-minded to have a look-ahead game. The national media will tout this as a matchup of marquee quarterbacks, but one is marquee and the other is further down in the credits. The Cardinal run for 216 yards a game and pass for 250, and the Washington defense is horrible and banged-up.

Stanford 38, Washington 20

Week Nine Preducktion: Oregon at USC

"The best way to beat the team you are going to play is to have your team play with conviction."
-----Chip Kelly, at a coaching clinic

So far the Ducks have been underwhelming on the road, scoring 42 and 43 points on the two worst teams in the league. All of their best, most complete performances have come at home. They even struggled for a quarter and a half at Tennessee. In each of their road games, at Neyland Stadium, at Arizona State, at Washington State, they struggled early with turnovers, giving up short fields, and the three unaccomplished opponents moved the football with unexpected and alarming efficiency. The Ducks put each away with a surge, and surge might be harder to come by against USC.

The Ducks can beat the Trojans; they're even favored to do so, but it's a significant step up in class from the easy victories one through seven. They'll have to manufacture some stops on defense, and they'll have to keep their offensive rhythm and tempo going against a group that is bigger, faster, more athletic and more talented than anyone they've faced so far, a group that seemed to come into its own in a dominating win over Cal, a Cal team that in turn dominated the same Sun Devils Oregon struggled with.

A lot of experts are picking Chip Kelly's team to fall, Pat Forde of ESPN among them. The ESPN guys like to give nicknames to the compelling weeks of the college football season, the two they've thrown out this week are "Roadblock Saturday" or "Anarchy Saturday." We'll see if either one sticks, but one thing is certain, the roadblock in front of the Ducks is bigger than most.

Monte Kiffin is a defensive genius who's won championships at both levels. Long before the Oregon spread or Tampa 2 he was drawing up schemes to stop offensive juggernauts, including the Oklahoma Sooners of the '70s while a defensive coach at Nebraska. Kiffin and the Huskers went to three straight Orange Bowls and won two national championships.

Here's a sample of his work in big games:
'71 Orange Bowl Nebraska 17, LSU 12
'72 Orange Bowl Nebraska 38, Alabama 6
'73 Orange Bowl Nebraska 40, Notre Dame 6
'74 Cotton Bowl Nebraska 19, Texas 3
2003 Super Bowl Tampa Bay 48, Oakland 21

That's a lot of defensive excellence with multiple production trucks outside the stadium, and each case the opponent had a formidable offense and Kiffin had extra time at the greaseboard. No one has figured out the Oregon spread completely, but he's seen more option football and more unstoppable offenses than anyone, and he's had time to go forward and back over the key moves of Ohio State and ASU repeatedly. Ohio State held the Ducks to 17 points, and Arizona State to 28 (the Oregon defense contributing the other two touchdowns). He'll build on their foundation, and Helfrich and Kelly will have to counter by finding some new creases and cracks.

Scheming will only take you so far. The Ducks have only four basic running plays, the inside zone, the outside zone, the counter and draw. It isn't complicated. What makes them successful are players who do their jobs at a relentless pace with great execution. The Ducks play with the conviction Kelly envisioned before his clinic audience. They understand what they are doing and why. Their understanding prepares them for any situation, for the wrinkles defenses introduce to try to confuse them.

Kiffin will overthink it. He's got his players in a frenzy of adjustments, and Oregon has the great luxury of doing what they know they can do, doing what they've prepared for their entire Oregon careers. Continuity breeds confidence. A frantic overhaul breeds false bravado. The Ducks will be ready on Saturday, synchronized and executing brilliantly. The Trojans will be struggling to remember a hundred adjustments, with labored breathing and overloaded minds.

By mid-third quarter, we'll see the vacant stare. On defense, the Ducks will produce enough stops to put the game out of reach, and finally the doubters will be convinced. This is a great football team. It isn't a fancy, gimmicky offense that makes them great. It's their character, and commitment to each other. At USC it's four-star, five-star and the two-ring Kiffin circus, and all the Hollywood trappings and big-money tradition won't win this football game. The ghosts of past glories won't. Simple blocking and tackling will, and the Ducks do that better.

The Trojans aren't geared for this pace, and Oregon's cohesive and opportunistic defense will get enough stops to push the game out of reach.

Oregon wins, handily. This is the game that defines them, where a promising season turns to greatness. They'll get off the Trojans' lawn. Right after they claim it as their own. "Conquest" is no substitute for conviction.

Oregon 48, USC 31

Et tu, Mike?

Mike Bellotti has a new role now, a role that requires him to play the Trojans' advocate. He's been asked on the air and in interviews several times this week, "how do you stop the Ducks' offense?" Being an articulate and forthright guy, he answers the question. Without apparent malice, he gives a thorough and thoughtful answer, just as he usually did as a Ducks coach, on a variety of topics. Bellotti rarely ducked a question, and seldom stonewalled, although he wasn't above resorting to coachspeak.

On stopping the Ducks, in his new role as a college football analyst he was very clear. Get your team in good shape, and prepare them to run laterally, even the big guys up front. Match up man-to-man and try to get an extra defender in the box. Mix up your looks and try to confuse the quarterback.

Nothing new here, nothing the Kiffins couldn't figure out on their own. But it is disconcerting to hear it from a guy who was the face of the program for 13 very successful seasons.

It makes you wonder also if Coach B has coaching completely out of his system.

Is There Panic in West Los Angeles?

"If a man does away with his traditional way of living and throws away
his good customs, he had better first make certain he has something of value to replace them."
----Old Basuto Proverb

The Trojans are tackling in practice. They've changed their tempo, and Monte Kiffin is fiddling with the Tampa 2, knowing it's a bad match for the Oregon spread. Against Tim Tebow last year he skooched up safety Eric Berry and committed him to run support, but that won't fly against the Ducks, who have a quarterback who can throw spirals and find downfield receivers. (Although there's an alarming and irresponsible report from a Eugene TV station about the Oregon passing game, linked in yesterday's Duck Sports Now. )

If an opponent has you changing what you fundamentally do, has you interrupting all your routines and standard practices, has you abandoning the basic principles of your scheme, you may find yourself flat-footed, exhausted, overwhelmed and mentally overloaded come game time.

It's the Trojans that are clamoring to adjust, and talking bravely about beatdowns and Brock Lesnar. Inside the Moshofsky Center it's business as usual, preparing at their accustomed tempo, maintaining their well-established and highly effective routines, confident in what they're doing and how they get ready.

What delicious irony that Oregon is coming to town number one with a Heisman trophy candidate at tailback. The football monopoly in the PAC-10 has ended, but it wasn't Rick Neuheisel that engineered its demise.

My Second Favorite Subject: A Tale of Three Quarterbacks

Got a note from reader Andy (at 3:48 a.m.--don't go to sleep on Duck fans) that got me to thinking further on the Oregon quarterback situation. Andy said...

People have talked about how Oregon might have gotten lucky with Masoli
getting the boot. I think your post [A Crucial Reason Why the Oregon Passing Game Will Get Even Better --ed.] reflects the main reason (not the only one). Masoli seemed to go long stretches without finding the tight end. I guess it was because of his height and tendency to move out of the pocket rather than step into the pocket.

I like the fact that Thomas seems to understand the routes well enough
to let them develop while he is under heavy pressure. He was hit a few
times and was not rattled. It's always great to see a QB celebrate a TD
pas on his back. Also I can't help but think this year's passing game will
help in recruiting more WR talent. Top WRs could not have liked what they
saw with Masoli running the offense.

Masoli was like the little girl with the curl. He could be very very good, or very very bad. And when he was bad he was horrid.

Darron Thomas, however, has surprised us all, not by doing well, but by doing so well so quickly. Duck fans have to be impressed with Thomas' growth, improvement, and grasp of the passing game. His poise, instincts and courage are tremendous. He advanced rapidly in his comfort level and understanding of the offense, in subtleties like the sleight-of-hand in the zone read. Many thought he would be adequate and make reasonable progress, but he is developing into a star.

Quite impressive, and a tribute to his work ethic and coaches Kelly and Helfrich. Have to feel his high school coach, Robert Jones, did a good job with his foundation in the game, and his mother did a good job with the foundation of his character. I had some doubts in his first two years, when he seemed to have an alarming tendency to be in the wrong place with the wrong guys.

It's been pleasing also to see the growth in his composure with the media. He comes across as a very genuine kid with a lot of boyish charm. The guys at Addicted to Quack pointed out what a shock it is to hear that Barry White voice come out of that youthful face. He'll be asked the requisite questions about the game plan or execution or a particular play, and invariably his answers reflect confidence and a commitment to the team, a lot of them starting with "Oh yeah, we..." He takes things in stride and looks forward, equally comfortable with pressure in the pocket or the spotlight.

He's in quite a matchup on Saturday. Rightly or wrongly the TV guys and post game commentators will compare the two quarterbacks. It will help the result a lot if the Ducks can get to Barkley, apply some pressure and break that three-game streak with no interceptions.

Barkley has made a big leap forward of his own, throwing for 20 touchdowns and just four interceptions this season after 15 tds versus 14 ints in his freshman season. Thomas has done much better in his first year starting, with 17 touchdowns versus five picks, but he has the benefit of three years in the program before taking the helm. Barkley took over as a true freshman, winning the job over Mitch Mustain and Aaron Corp when Mark Sanchez bolted for the NFL.

As effective as Thomas has been in his first year starting, it's amazing to think how much he might advance by his senior year. He's likely to be a four-season college player, and imagining him as a fifth-year senior throwing to Josh Huff, Curtis White, Eric Dungy, Kenjon Barner, Tacoi Sumler and the other young Ducks of the next generation is an exciting prospect.

And to think it all started with a senior Heisman trophy candidate imploding and getting tossed out of the program. It's amazing how many times, in sports and in life, the worst thing turns out to be the best thing, particularly when you have good coaching and a sound foundation.

A Crucial Reason Why the Oregon Passing Game Will Get Even Better

Darron Thomas uses all five targets. By now all of his receivers, Maehl, Huff, Paulson, Tuinei, Davis, and James have scored a touchdown or made a big catch as the third, fourth or fifth option on a play. This sends the message to these guys , "if I'm open, Darron will find me." Thomas spreads the ball around. Every receiver gets some sugar. This keeps their heads in the game. No one takes plays off. LaMichael learned the hard way. He was loping as the fifth option in the UCLA game, and had to make a great catch because DT zipped it out to him when he didn't expect it.

All five targets running to get open creates maximum pressure on a defense, particularly a Tampa 2 scheme where each defender has a zone to cover. The Ducks get their maximum stretch because every receiver stays committed to the play.

Not So Fast My Friend

Best news out of practice: both Goe and Moseley report that Kenjon Barner suited up and participated, albeit with a red jersey, and the number one defense is active and picking off multiple balls in drills.

Winning the battle of turnovers is critical in a road showdown like this, and signs of a sharp week of practice are encouraging. And it's fantastic to hear that Kenjon is making progress in his recovery, however long it takes him to return to the field. The early rumors were alarming.

What the Kiffins Will Learn from the Tape, and How the Ducks Will Make Them Suffer for It

Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it
-----George Santayana

The past is not dead. In fact, it isn't even past.
-----William Faulkner

Monte Kiffin has a blueprint for Saturday night. He's spent a week ruling and protracting, and another laying out the foundation for his players. He based his design on video and cutups from Oregon's games, and no doubt he paid closest attention to Arizona State this season and Ohio State in last year's Rose Bowl.

Those teams had the greatest success in frustrating the Oregon spread offense. The Sun Devils held the Ducks' attack to 28 points (14 were scored by the defense) and 385 yards, and the Buckeyes to 17 points and 260, all dismal numbers considering how consistently productive the Webfoots have been otherwise. Both games were on the road on grass, and that seems to be a critical part of the formula.

Arizona State disrupted the spread with pressure from the linebackers. They repeatedly timed and jumped the snap count and knifed into gaps. Oregon's offensive line didn't have an answer to Ohio State's big, quick defensive tackles, who got penetration inside and blew up the zone read before it could get going. The Buckeye defensive ends and linebackers did a great job of staying home, executing assignments with discipline and given then-quarterback Masoli conflicting, confusing reads. They had an answer for everything he tried to do, and kept him from getting any rhythm going . Oregon lost its tempo, and shot themselves in the high ankle area with a tipped interception just before half and a red zone fumble in the third quarter, the two errors accounting for a 20-point swing in the game. Masoli had a brutally bad game, 81 yards passing, 9 yards rushing. The spread seemed dead, and the Buckeye message boards went wild.

Will Saturday night be a repeat of Oregon's past, slower on grass, sluggish in Los Angeles, struggling with a fast, physical defense? I'm thinking not. The Ducks have several things going for them in game 8 of 2010 they didn't have last year, or even a few weeks ago in Tempe.

For one, the wraps are off Darron Thomas and the Oregon passing game. His comfort level and mastery of the offense has grown exponentially, and Kiffin can't afford to put one extra defender in the box. The Ducks will shred that strategy with five capable targets, from David Paulson in the seams to LaMichael James sprinting down the sideline. Thomas, taller than Masoli and less easily rattled in the pocket, goes through progressions better than any quarterback the Ducks have had since Bill Musgrave, and has shown himself willing to stand in to the last split second to complete a critical pass.

The offensive line has adjusted and is picking up those run blitzes better, and the coaches will be sure to have DT vary the snap count more to prevent the Trojan linebackers from cheating up. The new signal boards discourage efforts to compromise the offensive signals and provide an entertaining sidelight for the media. Holmes and Thomas don't struggle with the center snap the way Masoli and Holmes did, so the timing is more consistent at the start of plays, making the zone read much smoother. The deception in the zone read is improving every time out; Thomas and James fooled the cameras and the commentators 4-5 times versus UCLA.

Oregon has played it under wraps most of the season in terms of deception and misdirection. They've managed to maintain a very high level of productivity without going deep into the playbook or exhausting the many variations they have of their basic plays. They've shown a lot of counters, reverses and backside plays without having to actually use them. If SC overcommits to stop the zone read or stretch, the Ducks have a lot of answers they haven't yet exposed.

Even so, the Oregon spread isn't a gimmick, a fad or a flash in the pan. It's solid fundamentals and 11-man disciplined execution at a very fast and well-organized pace. Kiffin's defenders have spent a week-and-a-half trying to condition themselves for the speed of this offense and their quickness to the ball and with the ball, but the UO squad has been playing and practicing this way for three years. No crash course prepares defenses for the real thing. By the second quarter the hands go to the hips, and by the middle of the third quarter, to the knees. This is a relentless style of football, a perfect blend of style and commitment.

Oregon will play well because they prepare well. They know what they are doing and believe in it, so the Coliseum or the vaunted Trojan history creates no special pressure. They'll be facing a genuinely good football team in USC with some impressive talent, but these Ducks are better, more organized than the Trojans, more authentically motivated, and better coached. There won't be a repeat of the disappointing past. Chip Kelly's team is ready for the next level of success.

USC Looms, and All the News Is as Gloomy as the Weather

A look at the links is enough to take the joy out of breakfast.

Ken Goe points out the Ducks have been outscored 79-20 in their last two trips to the Coliseum, and haven't won there since Joey Harrington was quarterback.

Rob Moseley has a story on Matt Barkley and the USC passing game. Barkley has 20 touchdown passes and has thrown 119 straight attempts without an interception. He has a hot hand, throwing for 742 yards and eight touchdowns in the Trojan's last two games.

Chip Kelly calls USC "the most talented team in our league, by far."

Ted Miller says SC "wants to give Oregon nightmares."

Stephen Alexander of the Portland Tribune reports Darron Thomas feels pretty optimistic about this game. But that's just his style. Obviously he doesn't read the papers.

*********

The game is on the road, at night, on grass, against a talented team that showed signs of putting it together in their last game. The Trojans have a balanced offense with multiple weapons and big play capability, a big offensive line, fast backs and receivers, and one of the best quarterbacks in the country. They're a wounded animal used to being dominant, and have little to play for beyond this game. Andrew Luck gave the Ducks a lot of trouble with a much less talented supporting cast.

A certain portion of Duck fans are prone to panic, simply from years of learned behavior. We're used to the roof caving in, even in seasons when there was every reason to dream. They got so close in 2001 and 2007. This game feels a little like Stanford last season, minus the letdown/overlook factor. How could anyone overlook USC? Yet the Trojans have the combination of skills and style that in recent years have given the Ducks the most trouble.

We'll find out if Oregon is truly as good as their record. Are they ready to stay on the big stage, or will they fall back? This game will either validate the Ducks, or expose them.

One thing is certain. Saturday at the Coliseum on ABC will require the best effort of the year from Nick Alliotti's defense. USC has the personnel to challenge them like no one else on the schedule, except possibly their bowl opponent.

Win, and their national relevance and acclaim grows to an unchecked, unprecedented level. Winning a tough road game like this silences the critics and converts the skeptics. Lose, and Oregon is in a mad scramble for the PAC-10 title, no longer nationally relevant. They're back to being the nice little team from the Northwest with the snazzy uniforms and entertaining offense. We'll still love them, but College Game Day and the BCS selection show will no longer pay them much mind.

Can the UO front line get pressure on Matt Barkley? Can Talmadge Jackson and Cliff Harris cover Ronald Johnson and Robert Woods? Cal couldn't. Can Oregon win a shootout, on grass and on the road? Will a bye week give Monte Kiffin and the USC defense an edge in preparing for the spread offense and the Ducks' fast pace?

The Webfoots have a few advantages of their own. Coach Kelly has carefully taught them to prepare the same way for every opponent, so this week with the attendant hype and presumed pressure is nothing new. They're used to playing with urgency and accustomed to getting the opponent's best effort. USC will attack and pressure and come out fired up, but so has everyone else. The Ducks are a mature and unified group.

This year's team is significantly better than last. They are deeper and have stronger senior leadership. Key players like Casey Matthews and Brandon Bair have stepped up their games. And with Darron Thomas at quarterback, Oregon has a downfield passing game to match its imposing running attack. Teams can't sell out to stop LaMichael James. Thomas uses all five receivers effectively, and sees the whole field. He's rapidly learned to check off to alternate receivers and scan his options. He's tough in the pocket and unrattled by pressure.

The Quack attack has deception and balance and a multiplicity of weapons. This year's receivers aren't as talented a group as Oregon had in 2007 and 2001, but they understand and execute their assignments with a high degree of discipline and consistency. They are very well coached and work extremely well as a unit. Their downfield blocking is the best in college football, adding immensely to the team's explosiveness. Any play in the Helfrich/Kelly playbook can go the distance, and the Ducks get very efficient production on first down, because they execute so well.

James' phenomenal quickness aids the offensive line tremendously; he scoots through small creases, creates runs by eluding unblocked or partly blocked defenders, and finishes with toughness after contact. People remember him for the plus-25-yard runs, but all game long he is turning two into five and five into twelve with relentlessness, desire and creativity.

James is not as fast as Jonathan Stewart, but he is better suited to the spread offense, being quick and slippery and hard to find, more elusive in the open field. Stewart was big, fast and powerful, but really built to be more of a traditional I-formation tailback, running downhill with a fullback in front of him. Oddly, LMJ has been more durable in his Oregon career. Stewart had to play through some nagging injuries, particularly turf toe, which bothered him for most of his final year in Eugene.

Without stars like Stewart and Harrington there would be no Thomas and James. The success and increased attention the Ducks achieved with less in '90s and '00s created this legacy, this rising tide of notoriety and accomplishment. Now the current Ducks have to finish the job. They have to throw off the old blanket of the contender and earn the right to put on the belt and silk robe of the winner of the main event. And Saturday is the eighth round of the main event. Lose, and the Ducks are back on the undercard.

The Kiffin Identity: Deconstructing and Befuddling the Cover 2

Monte Kiffin has a long and imposing resume. He coached in the NFL for 26 years, and his teams finished in the top ten in yards and points an NFL record ten times. He was defensive coordinator at Nebraska in 1970 and '71, when the Huskers won back-to-back national championships. They didn't lose a game for two years. He won a Super Bowl coaching the Tampa Bay defense in 2002-2003. When his son Lane got the head coaching job at Tennessee two years ago, he hired his dad and made him the highest paid defensive coach in the country at 1.2 million dollars a year. Nepotism is all right as long as you keep in the family.

Along with Tony Dungy, who now has a vested interest in the Oregon program, Kiffin is the architecht of the much-copied Tampa 2 defense, a scheme that emphasizes speed over strength, a bend-but-don't break style of coverage, multiple looks from the same personnel, and an attacking style that forces turnovers. The Oregon game is homecoming for the Trojans, in multiple ways.

The Tampa 2 requires everyone in the defense to tackle and defend the run, placing a premium on hard-hitting, aggressive cornerbacks and safeties. The Super Bowl champion Buccaneers featured Simeon Rice, Warren Sapp and John Lynch, fast players who flew to the ball. Kiffin's teams play predominantly zone defense, with each safety responsible for half the field in the deep zones. It becomes very important for the quarterback to look off the safeties and influence them away from his intended target. The middle linebacker drops deep and defends over the middle, just underneath the safeties. The quarterback must read their speed.

Every zone coverage has soft spots, and Tampa 2 relies on the speed of the defenders to cover them and exploit mistakes by the quarterback. A team with a great running game is a tough matchup for cover 2 teams, and the play-action creates a great deal of pressure for safeties with deep responsibilities. Oregon's attack, which stretches the field in so many ways, is a good match for the Tampa 2. The USC athletes will have to make a lot of difficult split-second decisions. The elder Kiffin will want a lot of pressure from his front four to disrupt Oregon's game and ease the multiple responsibilities of the back seven. Defensive tackle Jurrell Casey performs the Warren Sapp role on the USC squad. Casey leads the d-line with 35 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, and two sacks.

The middle linebacker is critical in this defense. He's responsible for getting everybody lined up, for checks and defensive audibles, for directing the defense when the offense motions or shifts. He has to be not only mobile and athletic but intelligent. #42 Devon Kennard fills this role for the Trojans, and he's second on the team in tackles with 44. The defense thrives on swarm, hustle, and a gang-tackling mentality. They'll be hampered somewhat by the loss of two of the most productive defenders, DE Wes Horton (knee) and LB Malcolm Smith (back), both questionable for the Oregon game.

The statistical star for USC thus far has been free safety T.J. McDonald, #7, 6-3, 205. The sophomore from Fresno's Edison High, a high school teammate of the Ducks' Cliff Harris, has 49 tackles and three interceptions this season. His father was a 2-time All-American at USC in the eighties, and McDonald continues the USC tradition of fast, hard-hitting safeties. To be successful Saturday, Darron Thomas has to read the safety, and know where McDonald is on pass coverage, allowing for his considerable range.

There's nothing new in football, and the chess game between offenses and defenses goes on endlessly. Kiffin has had two weeks to prepare for Oregon, and will no doubt add adjustments and wrinkles to the Tampa 2 to counter what Oregon likes to do. Expect more pressure and stunting. The Trojans have depth and quality at linebacker, and will try to use that to frustrate Oregon's typical fast pace.

But ultimately, this game is not Kiffin versus Kelly, Kiffin versus Alliotti, or Helfrich with a brilliant queen's bishop pawn opening. Schemes put players in place to make plays, but inevitably someone has to make them. Ultimately it comes down to LaMichael James running with one defender to beat, and Darron Thomas delivering the ball to the open guy. USC could prepare for two weeks or a month or a year, and nothing could ready for them the millisecond in which James gives them a leg and then spins free for the end zone. You can scheme from now to Saturday, but not even Cain Velasquez can tackle air.

The Pessimist's Guide to the Football Universe

By any objective measure, the Oregon strength of schedule is suspect, as nutritious as a cupcake burrito. They have a marquee win at home against Stanford, wrapped around a collection of dominating wins over a collection of bottom feeders and cellar dwellers that Bill Snyder could only dream of. They shellacked 0-7 New Mexico, manhandled 2-5 Tennessee after a bolt of lightning gave them time to get themselves in order, walked over FCS Portland State( 2-5,1-3 in the Big Sky), stumbled early but rallied versus 3-4 Arizona State, beat Stanford, struggled early with 1-6 Washington State and pummeled an inept 3-4 UCLA squad 60-13.

The Ducks have played one serious opponent in seven games. They've rolled to lopsided victories in six others, but their opponents in those six are combined 9-20, collectively playing some of the worst football in the country. New Mexico is 0-18 over the last two seasons under beleaguered head coach Mike Locksley, outscored this season 309-95. The Lobos are 117^th in points for, 120^th, dead last, in points against. Despite their storied tradition Tennessee has struggled miserably this year, with four one-sided losses against top competition. Their two wins have come against Tennessee-Martin and Alabama-Birmingham, and there are no hyphenated schools left on their schedule. They snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by miscounting their substitutions on a critical last play against LSU, a season-changing win morphed into another agonizing loss, and the image of Coach Derek Dooley tossing off his headset in disgust will replay in the minds of Volunteer fans until spring practice.

Portland State lost to Arizona State 54-9, and has lost three in a row in Big Sky competition to Montana State, Montana and Weber State. Their defense has given up 44 points or more four times, twice in the Big Sky, to both Bobcats and Wildcats. LaMichael James scorched the Vikings for 227 yards on the ground, an impressive number, but less impressive when you consider Weber State running backs Bo Bolen and Vaingamalie Tafuna combined for 309.

The Ducks made Arizona State look like a bowl team for the first two quarters. They trailed 24-14 late into the second, and for the game the Sun Devil offense exploded for 597 yards. This is how bad that is: ASU had 553 yards of offense against Portland State, and only 450 against Northern Arizona. That puts Oregon’s defense in some very porous company. Cal dumped this same ASU team 50-17, and held them to 234 total yards, a sobering difference.

Stanford was a convincing win, but even in this one the Ducks gave an uneven performance. They had another poor early start and allowed the Cardinal to jump out to a 21-3 lead. Unheralded Stepfan Taylor rambled for 113 yards and a 44-yard touchdown, the longest run of his career. Andrew Luck passed for 341 yards despite relying on walk-on Griff Whalen as his leading receiver.

Oregon beat Washington State by 20, but USC beat them by 34. The Cougars are certainly playing harder this year but the results are the same: 1-7, 116^th in rushing, 98^th in points for, 117^th in points against. This was another game where nothing was learned, and several Ducks went to the sidelines with injuries, including stellar return man Kenjon Barner and quarterback Darron Thomas.

UCLA was the next victim, 60-13. The Bruins are 1-3 in conference, with their signature win a beatdown of Texas, which looked impressive until Iowa State did the same thing. Oregon rolled UCLA, but so did California and UCLA before them, Stanford 35-0, Cal 35-7. Bruin starting QB Kevin Prince was sidelined for this game, the Ducks got to backup Richard Brehaut for 3 sacks, an interception, and two fumbles near the goal line.

Oregon has done everything the schedule has required them to do, but added together, it isn’t much. They’ve had one difficult game and that one was at home. In fact, the opponent in that game is relatively untested as well. Outside of Oregon Stanford hasn’t played a ranked team, and they needed a last-second field goal to beat USC at home.

The Trojans are confident they can put a mixed martial arts beating on the Ducks, as announced to the world via twitter by their sophomore quarterback Matt Barkley in a boast he later deleted. But in cyberspace our errors live forever. “Wow, Brock just got rocked,” he wrote, “Lesnar is to Oregon as Velasquez is to SC.” Bold words for a bye week, the stuff that makes corkboards in most locker rooms, but Chip Kelly isn’t one for cheap motivational ploys, and the Duck locker room isn’t a place for a cheap corkboard. Kelly’s is a consistent message. “We prepare against a vision,” he says, every week, no matter how the media tries to couch the question. In the Oregon meeting rooms SC is neither Lesnar or Velasquez. They’re just another opponent, with red jerseys and a defense that likes to play Tampa 2.

Oregon may lose to USC, but it won’t be because they overlooked them or found them intimidating. The Ducks have prepared in a consistent way for every opponent on their schedule. They’ve had some slow starts and disturbing early turnovers, but they seem to have ironed out problems in the kick return game and found sufficient teachable moments to address the other miscues; they didn’t have a single giveaway against UCLA.

Here are the Trojans chief advantages in the game. None of these are insurmountable, but all of them have to be accounted for:

· They’re playing at home. Oregon’s last three losses have come on the road. Oregon’s defense is a touchdown better at home. They feed off the energy of the home crowd, and Autzen helps disrupt the visitors timing and communication. The Los Angeles Coliseum is not an intimidating atmosphere, particularly, but for USC, getting Oregon away from Eugene is a big plus.

· They have a balanced attack, and the ability to play ball control, power football. Ohio State and Stanford used this formula to take the air out of the ball last year. Run downhill on the Ducks, the thinking is, and keep that high-powered offense on the sidelines.

· They have fast wide receivers and a physical defense. SC’s defense hasn’t been lights out intimidating, but they have talented players who seem to be figuring out Monte Kiffin’s system. They held Cal to 245 total yards, picked off Kevin Riley twice, and limited superstar tailback Shane Vereen to 53 yards. The Bears got down early and had to abandon the running game, however. Vereen only got 10 carries. On the offensive side of the ball, Johnson and Woods may be the most explosive, dangerous wide receiver tandem in the West. The Ducks haven’t faced two of this caliber, and they've given generous chunks of yards to offenses with lesser weapons.

Oregon can win this game. Oregon should. The wise guys say they will by a touchdown. But the effort and execution that dispatched New Mexico and Washington State won’t work against the Trojans. The Ducks have to avoid turnovers, limit big plays and avoid letting the Trojans put them in a Velasquez-like clinch.