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Monday, January 31, 2011

The Black Mamba Uncoils and Writhes through the Links

Rumors are swirling on the web that 5-star running back/cornerback prospect De'Anthony Thomas is considering switching his commitment from USC to Oregon.

Matt Hinton reports the Crenshaw High speedster made a surprise visit to Oregon this weekend, along with standout offensive lineman Jake Fisher, had a great visit and may have verbally committed to the Ducks.

A Sports Illustrated feature revealed that Thomas plays with a Cliff Harris-like flair.  He has 4.4 speed in the 40 and won the all-city track meet last spring with 20.61 time in the 200 meters.  Listed at 5-9 170, the inevitable comparison is LaMichael James, but Trojan fans have labeled him the next Reggie Bush.  As a Pop Warner star he was mentored by uber Trojan fan and rap legend Snopp Doggy Dog.  He ran for 1299 yards and 20 touchdowns in his senior year.

Here is a look at his junior highlight video and another more extensive clip.  First impression:  the Bush comparison is apt.  He's a speed back who's been well-coached to trust his speed.  Wastes little time getting to the second level and gets upfield.  Like LaMichael, he runs with surprising toughness for his size, and the toughness factor is backed up by his defensive highlights, where he displays a willingness to get in traffic and hit.  The speed/strength/explosiveness training provided by Jim Radcliffe and his staff could make him a dominating runner if he continued to apply himself.

Last-minute recruiting machinations can be a lot of sound of fury, signifying some major talent is feeling neglected or met a new girl.  Duck fans have been down this road before with Bryce Brown and Terrelle Pryor.  But for the number one athlete in the country to be considering dumping the Trojans to become a Duck, that's the surest indication of a brave new world that has potential superstars flying in unexpectedly from all points of the compass.

The next question is, should Thomas avoid being influenced back into the Trojan fold, with the campus just a mile and a half from where he attended high school, can he make the adjustment Cliff Harris made, and learn to conform, become a part of a corps?   Chip Kelly tolerates and encourages refreshing personalities, but Oregon is a program with a lot of stars but one common and non-negotiable goal:  they're not here to win awards and gain headlines; they want to win games.

A Seminal Decision

Oregon's coaching staff has a phenomenal track record in developing players, particularly in assigning them positions.  They took a lumbering tight end from St. Anthony, Idaho, sent him off on a two-year Mormon mission, started him on offense, moved him to defensive end,  where he redshirted and spent a year on the scout team  He worked hard in the weight room, added strength and ferocity.  The first two years he was a reserve, earning a letter, appearing in all 13 games.  In his last two, he emerged as a leader and a star:  Brandon Bair.

In the Harry Potter movies my oldest granddaughter Kourtney likes,  there is a talking hat that assigns the new entrants to the school into their houses.  The Duck coaches have no such magic, but they do have an uncanny knack for recognizing the potential in the player and finding a fit.  A tough, agile safety gets moved to receiver, catching his first touchdown pass as a freshman in the Civil War.  Jeff Maehl finishes his career this year as one of the most outstanding and reliable wideouts in Oregon history.   There's a shortage of healthy running backs one spring, and a dynamic young cornerback gets some snaps carrying the ball.  He looks good, quick to the hole and decisive with his cuts.  Kenjon Barner becomes an all-purpose wizard, providing big plays running, receiving and returning, a star in the making with two bright years ahead of him.

Most division one players play two ways in high school.  They are standouts at the previous level, and their coaches need them to impact games as many ways as possible.  Spencer Paysinger came to Oregon as a receiver.  Josh Huff was a high school  cornerback, quarterback, receiver and running back, who played on a national all-star team as a cornerback at the end of his outstanding prep career in Texas, where they take football pretty seriously.  Jordan Holmes, from Yuba City, California, was a three-time all-league at offensive tackle, had five sacks and 11 tfls on the defensive line, and was 26-4 his senior year of high school as a wrestler.  Steve Greatwood moved him inside to center, and he made the PAC-10 All-Academic team twice and First Team All PAC-10 as a senior for the Ducks.

The point is, the Oregon staff faces these decisions over and over.  It's a critical part of the evaluation process with recruits and young players.  Offense or defense?  Redshirt or play right away?  Inside or outside?  Starter or role player?  Sometimes the decisions are agonizing and hotly debated.  Ken Woody says Dante Rosario and Terrence Whitehead would have made fearsome linebackers, and may have had a biggger upside on the defensive side of the ball.  Some of the criticism directed at Nick Aliotti has to be tempered for two reasons:  One, he has been far more effective than a superficial analysis suggests, and two, at Oregon, in the offense/defense debate, the defense usually loses.

One of the most-watched position placements in school history will begin on March 28th when Colt Lyerla reports for spring practice.  The Ducks are a team with many contributors, but this young man has a special set of abilities.  As Fish Duck pointed out,  he could be awesome at tight end or slot receiver, catching passes with 4.55 speed, a 6-5, 230-pound frame, and a 40-inch vertical leap.   At Hillsboro high school he was dynamic with the ball in his hands, two-time All-State, rushing for 40 touchdowns and 2,400 yards as a junior in a 13-1 state championship season.

Lyerla has explosive hips and a fierce work ethic.  He trains year-round, a workout warrior. Imagine him at drop end or outside linebacker in the Oregon system.  He could become a dominating player, a game changer.  His package of physical skills has been compared to Julius Peppers and Brian Urlacher.  He starred at outside linebacker in the U.S. Army All-America Game.

It could go either way.  The five-star prospect would be unstoppable running the fade route at the goal line, or he could be indomitable stoning one on a critical drive.  Lyerla could win one-on-one matchups on either side of the ball.  Michael Dyer would be down and stay down.  He would make big plays in space, game after game.

Given their track record, and their steadiness in relating to and developing players, the Oregon coaching staff will make the right call on this one, and the Oregon native's progress will be closely watched and debated.  In one way Duck fans are lucky he chose Eugene, given the intense and inevitable scrutiny he'll face as the most celebrated in-state recruit since Ndamukong Suh.

The debate on the message boards will be intense, and each day of practice reports will be pored over, awaited like puffs of smoke from the conclave.  Where does Lyerla land, and how quickly does he make a difference?

We'll know by the end of August, and then for sure when they line up in September.  Anxiously-awaited decisions like these have come to nothing previously.  Malachi Lewis is one notorious example.  A highly-touted prospect who never found his place.  Linebacker?  Running back?  Tight End?  In the end he got lost in the shuffle, never quite fast enough or driven enough to stand out.  But Colt Lyerla inspires a whole 'nother level of speculation and certainty.  If he is blessed with good health and remains the self-directed, switched-on, young athlete that he is, he's going to be a star. A probable impact player from day one.

And the best place for him is outside linebacker, where he can change 40 plays a game, where his touches are limited only by his instincts and desire.

[Editor's note:  Adam Jude has an excellent piece in today's Register-Guard on this same topic.  I did not read it before writing this one.

In Jude's article Lyerla himself expresses a preference for receiver: “Offensively, being 6-5, 225 and still having good speed, it can create a lot of matchup problems as far as being a receiver. I can stretch the field vertically or horizontally,” he said. “And on defense, I’m a little tall for a linebacker, but I feel like my speed fits there.”

While he certainly has every right to pursue his own goals and self-assessment as an athlete, and he'll excel at any of the spots, linebacker is the decidedly better choice.  Remember Ed Dickson, lost on a milk carton?  Receivers, even good ones, can be lost or overlooked for games at a stretch.  While Oregon has a bevy of difference-makers on the offensive side of the ball, including four top-quality incoming receiver recruits and three solid tight ends,  the Ducks have rarely had a linebacker with Lyerla's athletic ability and potential to dictate the outcome of games.

Either way, Oregon fans will wish him well and support him at the top of their lungs.  On Wednesday, he becomes one of ours, officially and for all time.  We love every one of them, from Kiko Alonso to Carson York.  [Currently we don't have a "Z."  They'll have to work on that next recruiting cycle.]

Sunday, January 30, 2011

Fish Report: The Wrong Perspective

Special Guest commentary by Fish Duck
I have taken the last couple of weeks to absorb the NC game, contemplate my reactions to it, and note what others have written. I must give my wife Lois, credit for once again coaxing me out from under the kitchen table while in a fetal position. She was very gentle in talking me out amid the sobs and my cries of opportunities lost. (She had to do this in 2007 after the Dennis Dixon injury as well) The game didn’t go well for me in terms of the scoreboard and considering that it went completely different compared to what I felt we would see. Sometimes…we eat glass when predicting from a crystal ball, and I’ve wiped that and the egg off my face as I acknowledge that I was quite wrong in how the game would materialize.

I’ve got a few comments overall for two reports, and then actual game breakdown will occur after recruiting when I have the courage to watch the game again. One thing I do know-I disagree significantly with some analysis written up by the “experts” and will disprove the popular convention on a few keys plays in this game. I do think that Nick Aliotti and his defense DESERVES a NC ring, because holding a great offense to twenty points IS a championship effort, and I salute and congratulate Auburn for their victory.

Comparisons have begun as to whether we are another “Virginia Tech” who went to the NC game in ’99 and while being an ongoing champion, have not returned to the NC game. Would Oregon find themselves in the same dilemma since we got worked in the trenches at times in Glendale? Can Oregon build upon this achievement, or is this the pinnacle for the program? Are we destined to subsequent years of having winning, but not championship seasons?

I did some homework and came to a conclusion that was written up as well recently about Oregon’s last five recruiting classes. I used one major football website that does NOT have a NW bias in its final rankings and the results were surprising to me. Our recruiting ranking average over the last five years is only TWENTY FIFTH in the nation! That means that talent-wise we deserve to be in the top 25 of the nation going to a Sun Bowl or Emerald type of bowl, but did we deserve to be in the National Championship game with our talent? Absolutely not! It confirms what I’ve felt throughout the season in that Chip Kelly was coaching this team into overachievement far beyond its talent.

That element of the equation for Oregon football is changing as we had the #13 ranking in recruiting last year, and we have a top-ten recruiting class shaping up for this year as well. Put together two to three more classes of that and we will see what Chip can do with a top-dozen average recruiting ranking versus a top twenty five average talent base. One concern that fans have is upgrading talent on the Offensive Line and a recent Internet article addressed that. They listed the top twelve High School Offensive Linemen in the nation based upon different abilities and of the twelve-ten were going to different colleges, but TWO are coming to Oregon! The other O-Linemen joining our recruiting class are players the coaches love and have huge upside; hence the talent in the trenches is escalating upward.

A critical component to Oregon’s attack in the future is continuing to improve at the vertical passing game to open lanes for a balanced running/passing offense. It is my view that THIS recruiting class for Wide Receivers and Tight Ends will be the fastest ever for any one year at Oregon. We have other WRs in the past as fast or faster, but NO recruiting class has this many speed-burners coming to the Ducks as this year. Throwing to them will be QBs with impressive credentials such as Bennett, (already redshirting) and Jerrard Randall, but I don’t believe I have ever seen a more impressive final video of a HS season as what I’ve seen from Marcus Mariota. It’s hard to imagine anyone being better, and if they are-wow. It also appears that all three of these QBs have more athletic gifts than even the multi-talented Darron Thomas, the current starter. Truly, the Best is Yet to Be at Oregon!

I need to change my attitude about the ‘Natty as this was not our only shot at the ultimate college prize; it is simply another building block to what Coach Kelly is creating. It is exciting to think that our best days as Oregon fans are in front of us? Be still my beating heart!

The Super Bowl will feature the Future Oregon Defense?

Last year we blitzed nearly half of all plays and usually utilized the “Zone Blitzing” concepts created by the Master Defensive Coordinator of the Pittsburgh Steelers, Dick LeBeau. You will see some masterful defensive strategies by the Steelers and watch for the variety of Blitzes they employ. We are still young in implementing the Zone Blitzing scheme, and something you’ll see in the NFL is how well they disguise it. When they line up--you have NO idea who is coming, and Oregon is still refining that aspect of our 3-4 Hybrid Defense.

I recall the conversation with Clay Matthews Sr. who told me last spring how what we are doing is similar to the Green Bay defense. Watch how the Packers disguise their defensive formations and then send a torrent of blitzers up the middle. It is hard to pull off because it is easiest for O-Linemen to stack up the middle, but when successful it leaves little wiggle-room for the QB to escape. Note also how they design D-Linemen twists to create a gap on the defense’s right side for the corner to storm through on a short field to the right side. They do that often enough to make teams overcompensate to that side, hence the backside becomes vulnerable.

In the NFC Championship game we heard from the sportscasters how Green Bay only had two down Defensive Linemen for the majority of the game. One was 330 lbs. and the other was just over 300 lbs. then I nodded as our own Defensive Coordinator’s words came to mind from my May interview as Nick told me, “I’d like two big guys down and nine fast guys on defense.” That is what you see with Green Bay, and it could be a glimpse of Oregon Defenses to come.

They have a special player in Clay Matthews jr. who plays as hybrid LB at times, and yet he is a ferocious pass rusher who demands double teams that are frequently futile. The Trojans correctly used his talents, but Green Bay has really put him space to create havoc for offenses. I know that recruit Colt Lyerla would be impossible to stop as a TE in the Red Zone at 6’5” and leaping another five feet in the air for a TD pass. Yet I cannot shake the vision of seeing HIM as the monster intimidator as a hybrid LB/DE for us in a Clay Matthews type of role in our emerging defense. As students of the game we All will be watching and learning to see the directions our new defense will be moving toward. Is this a glorious time to be a Duck or what?

Geez we love our Ducks,

FishDuck

Charles Fischer fishduck83@gmail.com

[Editor's note:  Charles Fischer, affectionately known to a legion of passionate, die-hard Duck fans as Fishduck,  has graciously asked me to cross-post his legendary "Fish Reports,"  which are published simultaneously at Addicted to Quack and the Duck Sports Authority  forums.  His work prompts some lively discussion on those sites, and I encourage you to visit there.  Guest commentary and reader contributions are always welcome at The Duck Stops Here, particularly if they are as rich in highly beneficial omega-3 fatty acids as the Fishduck's.]

An Exciting New Partnership with "The Fish Report"

No one unpacks Oregon football like Fish.  His "Fish Reports" are legendary for their depth, accuracy, careful research and passionate examination of the x's and o's of Duck football.  He also has a considerable talent for cross-promotion, getting his work published at Duck Sports Authority  and Addicted to Quack.  At one time or another it's been referenced by nearly everyone who covers or follows Oregon football, and the attention is completely deserved.

This week The Duck Stops Here announces a new collaboration with the FishDuck.  We'll be posting the reports when they come out, as well as Fish's video links to illustrate the key principles of Chip Kelly's spread offense and an archive of previous Fish Reports.

The Fish, whom his wife and friends also know as Charles Fischer,  will still be available at all his usual haunts.  Our philosophy at The Duck Stops Here is that if it entertains and informs Duck fans, it's welcome here, and we'll feature it.  We welcome intelligent guest commentary and reader contributions, and always will.  The only caveat is that is has to be tastefully and thoughtfully written, and it should be fundamentally positive.  We cover a forward-thinking operation.  Although there are moments of panic, of loss, and occasionally heartbreak, these are student-athletes, and we're proud of them.   Remember the tagline above at all times.

Dispatches from SEC Country

Greg Poole of the Leather Helmet Blog has an update on the Cam Newton investigation in which he suggests Auburn's national championship may give way to the NCAA Death Penalty:

Colonial Bank based in Birmingham, AL failed in August of 2009. The chairman of Colonial was Bobby Lowder who is also on the Auburn board of trustees. It is widely held that Lowder is the puppet master of Auburn's BOT and is the man who had Bill Muse removed as AD. Lowder is also the man who interviewed Bobby Petrino while T-Tubs was still under contract.


In 2009 the FDIC seized Colonial and sold its assets to BB&T, and began an investigation into all of Colonial's operations. It is believed that in the course of this investigation the FBI has found overwhelming proof of Auburn supplying the parents of football players with loans of which they were not required to pay back. It was also learned that Colonial bank had set up special accounts that were linked to ATM cards that were then issued to Auburn players giving them access to funds provided by boosters.


It is expected that in the next few weeks the Justice Department will hand down indictments on Lowder and a number of Colonial executives over the TARP fraud. Now here is Auburn's problem. If the indictment specifies about the loans and the ATM linked accounts the NCAA will have no choice but to launch a full scale investigation. These actions, if true, dwarf the Alabama scandal of the 2000's that left Bama one vote shy of the Death Penalty.


Poole also passes along "A Cam Newton Investigation Timeline" from the website I Bleed Crimson Red.   It should be noted, neither of these sites are objective sources.  But both do a comprehensive job of exposing the laundry the Tiger fans would like to kick under the bed.  By now their entire house is infused with the ripe, moldy smell of a dirty wife beater smeared in barbeque sauce and spilled corn whiskey.

Some of the the details are verifiable and undeniable, and horribly inconvenient for the War Eagle crowd:
June 9, 2009


Colonial Bank is served with a cease and desist order.


Cecil Newton, father of then Blinn (Junior) College Quarterback, Cameron Newton, and Pastor/Bishop of the Holy Zion Church of Deliverance, is told by Newnan Georgia code enforcement officials that he must make a series of costly repairs to his church or it will be demolished.


August 14, 2009


Colonial Bank is seized by state regulators and placed in receivership with the FDIC, throwing the banks’ books open to forensic accountants and investigators.


September 2009


Newton returns to the Newnan City Council and says that the church can meet code in “six months.”

City Council reporter for the Times-Herald, Elizabeth Melville, said Cam Newton's father told the council that another son was signing to a football team and was giving the church some money from the deal. "He said he had a different son that played football that was being signed on that expected to get a lot of money from a deal. He was going to be able to give him some and I think he was going to get some from somewhere else. I think he was going to get some from somewhere else. He explained the origins of where the money would come from at a council meeting and no one was suspicious at the time."


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Duck Tracks:  At this point, none of this means anything for the 2011 Ducks.  If Auburn is forced to vacate the trophy, it won't be awarded to Oregon and it shouldn't.  The best response Oregon fans and the Oregon program can make to whole mess is focus on earning another trip to the championship, and proving that one loss does not define them.

Auburn won and Auburn cheated.  That fast, entertaining team from the Northwest can get the country's attention back on football by making a strong commitment to a new vision. 








Recruiting update: the Jake Fisher visit and offensive line

National Signing Day is Wednesday February 2nd.  January 30 is considered a "quiet period," and January 31-February 3rd a "dead period," in which no in-person contact with a recruit is allowed.  For a complete calendar of the various NCAA recruiting windows, click here.    Charlie Zegers of about.com also defines a dead period:

Definition: A "Dead Period," as the name implies, is a time when nearly all recruiting activity is temporarily shut down.

During a dead period, coaches cannot:
•Make in-person recruiting contacts
•Conduct in-person evaluations -- on or off-campus
•Schedule official campus visits
•Allow unofficial campus visits
•Offer complimentary tickets to games


The only permissible communications during a dead period are phone calls (limited by NCAA regulations to one call per week) and correspondence.

Rob Moseley reported on his blog that top offensive linemen Jake Fisher was in town Saturday for a recruiting visit, attending the Oregon women's basketball game with Scott Frost.  From Traverse City Michigan, Fisher originally committed to the University of Michigan but reconsidered after Rich Rodriguez was fired, anticipating coaching changes and upheaval in the program.

Scout.com  reports Fisher is a converted tight end, 6-7 273 with the frame to become an elite tackle.  He also punted and played defensive end on his high school team, an indication of his athletic ability.

Tom Markowski of The Detroit News wrote Fisher is the highest-ranked uncommitted player in the state, having taken recruiting trips to Michigan, Michigan State and Florida, with home visits from coaches at all three programs.  Chip Kelly visited the Fisher family on Friday prior to the offensive tackle's visit to Eugene.  Rivals rates Fisher the 49th-best offensive tackle in the country.  In an article by Rachel George of the Orlando Sentinel  his high school coach Tim Wooer provided this evaluation

"As a player, he's 6-7, 270 and his best football's in front of him," said Wooer. "Once he gets on a college meal plan and gets in a weight training facility where he can really dedicate himself to the weight room, he's just going to explode. He's going to take off and go."


Duck Tracks:  If Fisher goes with the Ducks, he'll be a terrific addition to the class of strong, athletic linemen they've recruited in this cycle.  They have verbal commitments from Andre Yruretagoyena, Jamal Prater, Tyler Johnstone, and James Euschler of Aloha.  All five have the athletic frame and potential to follow Wooer's formula.

One of the criticisms of Oregon after the national championship game is that the Ducks weren't big enough or physical enough on the front lines, that Auburn dominated the game on the line of scrimmage.  Every coach wants to sign players who are 6-8 320 with 4.6 speed and a 3.7 GPA, but they aren't found in abundance.  Elite offensive linemen have to be developed in the weight room, training table and practice field.  Most need a year or two to develop to acclimate to the system and grow.

Oregon's spread requires linemen who are agile enough to block downfield and on the perimeter.  It's a difficult balance, requiring that coaches have the ability to evaluate, project and teach young players to their potential.  They can't simply plug in the next stout human tree trunk you'd find in programs like Wisconsin or Nebraska.  In Chip Kelly's system linemen have to be mobile and intelligent.   Bulk alone isn't enough.

In the last several years Steve Greatwood has done a marvelous job of coaching up his o-line, having sent Adam Snyder, Max Unger and several others to the NFL.  In this class, he's getting superb raw material, and the future of this group is tremendous.  Should Fisher choose Eugene, it becomes even brighter.  In those offensive-line-versus-defensive-line matchups of the coming years, the Ducks won't be conceding an advantage to anyone.   Not that they ever did.

Friday, January 28, 2011

Playing Whack-A-Mole with the Duck Issues of the Week

Don't cover basketball here, and don't follow it with the same intensity we apply to football, but Duck fans have to be heartened by the progress that Dana Altman and the players are making in creating a new vision for the basketball team.  An undermanned and undersized  squad has already won three more conference games than many experts thought they might, and they've done it with a very Chip-like brand of heart, defense and hustle.

Winning is infectious, and an athletic climate where teams strive for excellence creates an atmosphere at a university.  It can carry over to track and baseball and golf.  It can envelop new enrollees and young people who consider the university.  It has always meant something special to wear the green and yellow, and there's an identity and a hopefulness that shapes the Ducks.  The progress of the roundballers, uniquely their own, will contribute something important to that climate. 

When football players attend games, or recruits come for their weekends, the passion and pride displayed in that new gym matters.  It becomes an essential part of the fabric of a great university.  You can have a successful football program with a poor basketball program or not much of one at all,  but a school where all the academic and athletic programs are striving for excellence becomes a very special place. 

Here in the Northwest, green and yellow stands for something.  The Ducks are unique.  They have a spirit and a heart you don't find other places.  They have a fierce loyalty to each other.  It's a quality of effort and independent determination that goes back to Steve Prefontaine and Dan Fouts and further still.  It's heartening to see the basketball Ducks go to Mapes and play with that kind of effort.  No one ever rises to low expectations.  At Oregon, the expectations are consistently high on every corner of campus.  It's exciting to see that pride become more tangible, for the bright new colors to inspire a brighter effort.

That said, I'd like to see the football team in school colors at least once a season.  The throwbacks are more than just an ensemble and a uniform option.  They are the heart of a history.

***************

The quack fiends at ATQ rack up a high score every day with their own brand of quick quips, jibes, jocular asides, and cogent points that reach to the heart of alacrity.  Yesterday they discussed the 9-game conference schedule.  Led by moderator Matt Daddy, they exposed its follies and dangers.  As Matt observed, it's absurd how sacred and inviolable the concept has become in certain quarters, like oversigning and paying quarterbacks in the deep South, when the nine-game slate has only been around a handful of years.

USC's great title teams didn't play nine conference games and a league championship game, and neither will Boise State or the Buckeyes.  Opening on the road in a hostile environment against a top-five team, traveling back-to-back to Stanford and Washington, the 2011 Ducks have a world of promise and the talent to make a repeat visit to the national championship game, but the schedule makers have laid out a much harder road than you'll ever see in Columbus or Boise.

The Elvis of the program has left the building on this one.  "Just tell us who we play,"  he has repeatedly said in his big-balls way. The Ducks are uniquely armored for such a quest, in mind and in ability, but the rest of the conference will certainly suffer.  The five extra losses, when the rest of the top fifty are resting their starters and collecting big paydays in the friendly confines of home, ratchets down perception.  In BCS math there is no such thing as a quality loss.  The opinion makers are all out East, and they are group thinkers with shallow minds, rarely going beyond the agate type of anything that happens west of Norman.

Until the BCS dies its inevitable and undignified death, it sets the standard in college football.  It's an essential part of its absurdity that the whole convoluted process is fundamentally anti-competition.  It rewards cowardice.  It is a triumph of avoiding risk.  Teams get lauded and praised and enriched for taking the easiest road possible.  It is the thunderous triumph of perception and reputation over reality and effort.

This season, Oregon should blast the BCS to hell.  They should march through LSU, Stanford and Arizona like Sherman cutting a flaming swath through an archaic wasteland of indefensible, hidebound, lazy anachronism.  They should win thirteen straight football games and put an end to the whole mess.  The Big Twelve, Big Ten and the SEC dutifully follow the formula and crow loud.  They open with Youngstown State or Chattanooga, schedule a bye before their rivalry game, have a November tuneup to pad their stats against some brand of nobodies, a couple of laughers against the perennially underfunded weak sisters of the conference, the Vanderbilts, Indianas and Iowa States.  They call this tradition and excellence.  It isn't anything like that.  It's a money grab, pure and simple.  It's old men puffing out their chest over an illusion and a fraud.  As always, Robert Smith's venom is misdirected and misspent.

*****************

Here is some unassailable wisdom from a proven source.  You can apply it to football or life or dismiss it as foolishness, but it has provided great comfort to many people in the darkest of hours:

My child, don't lose sight of good planning and insight.  Hang on to them, for they will fill you with life and bring you honor and respect.  They keep you safe on your way and keep your feet from stumbling.  You can lie down without fear and enjoy pleasant dreams.  You need not be afraid of disaster or the destruction that comes upon the wicked, for the Lord is your security.  He will keep your foot from being caught in a trap.  (Proverbs 3:21-26)

In other words, you won't feel pressure if you know what you're doing.  Having a core of belief in your life, a fundamental source of strength and vision, is a tremendous place to start.

Thursday, January 27, 2011

Thursday Walk-Through: Special Winter Workout Rap Edition

The crabby Fighting Duck
makes his own luck
Preppin' for some malice
 in Dallas
in Jerry Jones' palace
home of the cowpokes
LaMichael and Darron
stylin' in front of the home folk
The Mad Hat better get back
because they ain't no joke
they don't have to fix it
cause it ain't broke
Hat said DT was an ATH-LEET
got a lesson to learn
'cause he's throwin' sweet
LT gonna break loose
Josh Huff gonna puff
and turn on the juice.
they play to a vision
gonna make a small incision
just a quick cut
and they're by your butt
put on a clinic on tv
Brent and Herbie gonna see
on ESPN
they'll do it again
and Erin be crushin'
when the Chipster be shushin'
with a quick quip
from his fast lip
y'all get ready to play
this is a new season
and it's time to win the day.

[Hope no one is offended--the kids do this way better than I can.  Just having fun.  I've got no game but the Duck has plenty.  Looking forward to Moseley's first reports from winter workouts in the Mo.  Be interesting to see if this group is as dialed in as they were last year.]

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

It's a Whole 'Nother Kind of Day to Be a Duck

Rob Moseley reports that Dennis Dodd of si.com has an article on early Heisman candidates, and it includes three Ducks.  This is like a great dream where you never wake up.  Seriously, when Joey's billboard went up, did you ever think Oregon would have one Heisman trophy winner, let alone three players mentioned for the award at once?  LaMichael James and Darron Thomas came immediately to mind, but I did an "oh yeah, of course" when I read the third name:  Cliff Harris, who Dodd described as "the designated Charles Woodson candidate."

Truth is, if Andrew Luck stays healthy, he's a definite front runner by a wide margin.  But say Stanford slips back a little in their first year without Harbaugh and two new coordinators, loses two or three games.  If the Ducks achieve their potential and put together another strong season, the three-headed monster has to get a lot of attention.  Then there's Josh Huff, who averages 15 yards a touch, running or receiving.   Suppose he gets 50 touches this fall, and maintains his wondrous productivity.  How long before he starts making some top ten lists and projections?  Just sayin'.

Roderick Byers, a 6-5 270 defensive linemen from South Carolina, held a press conference today and in front of his parents and coaches and classmates and friends, committed to Oregon.  He's a 3-star prospect, a defensive end in high school who may play inside as a Duck, strong, runs a 4.8 40, which is exceptional for his size.  Here is some junior video.  He sifts through blocking very well, and pursues, very promising.  The coaching and strength training he'll get at Oregon could elevate him to a very good player.  Here's an interview in a camp setting; he comes across as a modest and likeable kid.  He wants to play right away, and expressed a preference for defensive end in the interview.  He seemed a little uncomfortable with all the attention, which is a good sign in a recruit.

A critical factor for him, now that he's declared a decision, is how well and how quickly he adjusts to being so far from home.  Oregon has to feel like family to him.  He has to be encouraged and embraced and made to feel a part of the team.  Leaders in the group will have to reach out to him.  He'll need a support system and good influences.

Talent and potential he has.  Oregon's coaches and players will have to make him one of their own.  It's especially important with a kid who is traveling such a long way, and making such a big adjustment culturally.

If the Ducks get signatures from the entire group that has committed, and add another couple of key names among Heyward, Simmons, Dawson and Branden Jackson, this will be the most remarkable recruiting year in Oregon history.  Marqis Lee still remains an outside possibility, an impact safety from California with the athletic talent to also star at wide receiver, but most projections have him going to USC.

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

The Critical Factor for 2011

Talent isn't the question, and neither is depth.  With some key impact newcomers on the way, the 2011 Ducks have an answer to every loss on the roster, and enough ability and athleticism to win another conference  title and contend for a return trip to the national championship.

They lost two linebackers, and they have four to replace them.  They lost a savvy veteran wide receiver, and they'll have four fast, talented ones to line up in his place, plus two returning ones with experience and skill.  Three offensive linemen graduate, but six are ready to play.  Their quarterback has a year of experience.  Their Consensus All-American running back has three capable  teammates who would start any other year, promising enough in their own right to keep him fresh and keep opponents off balance. 

It goes on like that.  Defensive line seems to be a question mark, but there are multiple plausible answers.  Oregon's defensive line could easily be deeper and more talented this season, with six solid returnees and four promising newcomers, including a couple with staggering potential.

Oregon has the most impressive roster of athletes it has ever had.  What Chip Kelly is building here, in terms of speed and ability and quality and depth, in terms of character and commitment and suitability for his style of play, is utterly unprecedented.

There is only missing element, one crucial question that can only be answered over the next six months.

Does this group have the will and desire to be great? 

They have more talent than any group in school history, more potential than last year's squad could have hoped for.  In fact, last year's team wasn't the most talented team in the conference.  They worked hard.  They had unity and leadership and character.  Chip Kelly was often asked when he knew that team would be something special.  His answer was, unfailingly, "In spring practice.  They never had a bad practice."

The challenge for 2011 is, the leaders who set the tone at those practices are all gone.  Bo Thran.  Jordan Holmes.  Spencer Paysinger.  Casey Matthews.  Kenny Rowe.  Talmadge Jackson III.  It isn't their talent that will be missed.  The players taking their place all have faster 40 times and more stars.  They're are bigger and stronger and more sought after. 

Oregon's young standouts, like Darron Thomas, Cliff Harris, LaMichael James, Carson York, John Boyett and Michael Clay;  Eddie Pleasant, Terrell Turner, Josh Kaddu, David Paulson--they have to be the leaders now.  They have to set the pace in summer drills, when no one is watching.  They have to set the mix of horseplay and seriousness (a team without either is lost).  They have to articulate the goals and provide the example, the standard of work and improvement necessary to beat LSU and 11 other teams hungry to knock off the Ducks.

Last summer or the summer before, these guys could cruise or kick box or cut up.   Now they are the ones who will dictate the personality of this team and determine its focus.

Hard work built a championship season.  If winning was all about recruiting ratings and reputation, UCLA and USC and Cal would win the conference every year.  Oregon was better, in game after game, because they prepared harder, and bought in to one goal and one purpose.

And the minute they forget that, or fail to honor it with a daily commitment to being better, they will become just another underachieving football team with bloated expectations.

Are Darron Thomas, LaMichael James, Cliff Harris and the rest ready to be leaders as well as stars?  Because without leadership, teams don't achieve at a championship level.

One important point is, true leadership isn't about calling attention to yourself.  It isn't phony towel waving or clapping and rah-rahing like a windup stuffed monkey with cymbals.  Dennis Dixon, Nick Reed and Will Tukuafu were all leaders, and all three were quiet guys who went about their business.  They just did so with a resolve and maturity that set an example.  There wasn't any doubt who was in charge, and what the pace should be.

Monday, January 24, 2011

Links, Linemen and Ludicrous Speed

Rob Moseley has the update on next year's offensive line.  Just a couple of observations:

This isn't a repeat of 2009, where the offensive line entered the season with few starts and little experience.    Weems, York and Asper are returning starters, and several of the reserve linemen got significant playing time last year.  Ryan Clanton and Nick Rowland are ready to step in.  Ramsen Golpashin, Karrington Armstrong,  Nick Cody and Everett Benyard III should contribute.  For the future the Ducks have recruited three offensive linemen with athletic ability that should grow into the job.

Much has been made of Oregon's smaller offensive line being pushed around by bigger defensive lines, particularly elite defensive tackles.  People say the Ducks can't compete against the SEC and other teams with physical fronts, that this is the flaw in the spread scheme.  The gap is closing.  Asper is athletic and big at 322, Benyard 315, Rowland 314.  Cody is 296, Weems 292, York 286 and still developing. Among the four offensive linemen who have verbally committed in this class, Jamal Prater is 290, and the other three are exceptionally athletic with the frame to achieve elite size.  Oregon has one of the most forward-looking and effective strength training programs in the country under Jim Radcliffe.  Their big players become strong and explosive, ideal for a team that scored 611 points and gained 6899 yards in 2010.

Oregon came within a field goal of the national championship last season.  The gap isn't that great.  With improved execution and continued development the offensive line will be effective in 2011.  They are blessed with quick athletes at the skill positions, who don't need truck-wide holes to make impact plays.  The Ducks are built for the long haul, and there is nothing wrong with the Oregon model.  Weems, Cody, Asper, York, Rowland, Clanton and company will move the pile.  They'll get Darron Thomas his four seconds, and they'll give LaMichael James and his running mates room to sprint.  It will still be a popcorn-worthy show this fall.  In fact, the sequel might out-perform the original.

In recruiting, the Ducks have hit every one of their targets, but they still need a good close at defensive tackle.  One big need has been thoroughly met, as Chip Kelly and his staff have secured verbal commitments from four outstanding wide receiver prospects in Rahsaan Vaughn, Tacoi Sumler, Devon Blackmon and B.J. Kelly.  All four are fast, fast, fast, deep threats who would make a pretty good 4x100 relay team.  All four are football players who have expressed enthusiasm about the Oregon offense and the Oregon way.  Imagine Darron Thomas as a senior with a group like this to throw to, plus reliable returnees David Paulson and Josh Huff.  (He has Lavasier Tuinei for one more year, and a solid group of redshirts including Keanon Lowe, Blake Cantu and Eric Dungy.)

The Ducks have long been an operation where opponents can't just defend one guy, and the talent and speed that will be available this fall is becoming truly mind-bending, The Greatest Show on Turf.  On one play Darron Thomas can hand off inside to LaMichael James, pitch to Seastrunk, shovel pass to Kenjon Barner or throw deep to Huff.  It's a dazzling, electric ensemble cast with Chip Kelly writing the script.

At the same time Oregon is accumulating a stable of athletes with freakish ability and potential.  Two of the newcomers, Christian French and Colt Lyerla, could develop into defensive players at end and linebacker, 240+ lbs. with 4.4/4.5 speed.  That's crazy.  Oregon has never had athletes like that on defense; few schools ever do, and now they're entering an era where they may have four or five by the time they're done with the inviting and the signing.

They'll be back.  If the work ethic, attitude and leadership match last year, their potential is unlimited.

Sunday, January 23, 2011

Reloading the Oregon Offense: Quarterbacks

Returning:  Darron Thomas 6-3, 212 junior;  Bryan Bennett 6-2, 183 redshirt freshman; Dustin Haines 6-2, 200 redshirt sophomore; Darryle Hawkins (qb/rb/wr) 6-4 192 redshirt sophomore (note: all class notations indicate the player's class in the upcoming season rather than the just-completed one).

Departing:  Nate Costa

Incoming:  Marcus Mariota 6-4, 195, St. Louis High, Honolulu, Hawaii; Jerrard Randall 6-2, 190 Chaminade Madonna Prep, Hollywood Florida.

In his first year starting Darron Thomas just completed one of the four best statistical seasons in Oregon history:  12-1 record, #3 in the country, 2881 yards passing, 61.5% completion percentage, 30 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 10 sacks, 150.97 quarterback rating.

If Thomas stays healthy and completes two more years as a Duck, he will own every career passing record in the media guide.  He's already had the best year ever by a sophomore, by a wide margin.

In Kellen Clemens' first year as the full-time starter he was sacked 40 times.  Dan Fouts sophomore year, he threw 24 picks.  Bob Berry?  995 yards, 6 touchdowns, 7 ints.  Joey Harrington?  10 tds, 3 interceptions, 1180 yards.  Dennis Dixon? 777 yards, 6 tds, 3 ints.  Bill Musgrave?  Very solid sophomore year, with limited talent around him, 1836 yards, 59.4% completions, 13 tds, 8 ints.   Chris Miller as a sophomore?  Promising but not overwhelming, 1712 yds., 50.2%, 10 tds, 10 ints.  Those guys all turned out to be pretty good quarterbacks.

Thomas' numbers for this season stack up pretty well to the numbers these greats produced in their senior years.  Remember how much Dennis Dixon improved, that first summer under Chip Kelly?

If Thomas applies himself and stays healthy, he'll surpass them all. 

Nothing is guaranteed, of course.  We saw last winter how quickly a promising athlete's future can unravel with bad choices.  In 2007 and 2008, the Ducks went through five quarterbacks.  At one point in the 2008 campaign they were down to a glorified wildcat formation with under-prepared Chris Harper heaving cover-your-eyes grenades as a true freshman against upstart Boise State.  That was painful.

Until the fourth quarter, and a skinny freshman from Texas came off the bench and tossed three touchdowns and over 200 yards, nearly pulling off a miracle comeback.

He wasn't quite ready for prime time then, and he had to survive a couple of scrapes since, and a rocky beginning in his first drive this fall, but Darron Thomas took over like he expected to be the man all along.  Outperforming veteran Nate Costa in fall camp, he won the job, and then Oregon fans' confidence with a solid outing on the road against SEC traditional power Tennessee in Neyland Stadium, overcoming a 13-3 deficit, tossing touchdown passes to David Paulson and Lavasier Tuinei. 

Now he's had a year running the offense, and faced big games, road games, conference title showdowns, national TV in primetime, rivalry games, and a national championship.  He's faced every kind of pressure, every big situation, every blitz and defensive look.  After a shaky start, he threw for 363 yards and two touchdowns against Auburn.

He has plenty of returning weapons, beginning with LaMichael James, Kenjon Barner, Josh Huff, and Paulson and Tuinei.  Tight end Brandon Williams may be for a bigger role, and the new recruiting class includes four fleet receivers, Devon Blackmon, Rahsaan Vaughn, Tacoi Sumler, and newly-committed B.J. Kelly.  Thomas' productive performance in Glendale might signal a new role for him in the offense, with the confidence and ability to air it out and stretch defenses.  Remember Dixon against Michigan in 2007?  Thomas can't be the runner Dixon was, although he runs capably enough, but he may be an even better passer.

Behind him, Bryan Bennett is developing nicely, and made it through 2010 with his redshirt preserved.  The four-star Crespi High product has a big time arm and athletic ability, but still needs to gain some weight and get stronger to improve his durability.

Hawkins is solid in the slash role, a gifted athlete who will probably contribute at receiver this year.  In his third year of the program he already understands the offense well enough to contribute at running back, quarterback and receiver, taking snaps in all three places in last year's blowout wins over New Mexico and Portland State, totalling 18 carries for 93 yards for the year.  The Omaha, Nebraska native was a three-sport athlete in high school, playing on three state champion basketball teams, winning a state title in track in the triple jump, second in long jump, third in the 110m high hurdles after an injury.

Bennett and the incoming freshman have great promise for the future, but if Oregon is to compete for a third straight PAC-12 title and a possible return to a BCS bowl, they have to keep Darron Thomas healthy for 13 games.  Should the unthinkable happen they'd adjust, just like prior years, but Thomas' health and continued development is a key to their dreams of remaining among the elite in college football.

Saturday, January 22, 2011

Duck News from all over

Rob Moseley of the Register-Guard reports Oregon has signed a quality defensive end prospect from Hawaii, 6-4 240-lb. Lake Koa Ka'ai. Now the Ducks have a Lache and Lake, which might create some confusion if one of them is getting chewed out during scrimmage. They’ve recruited one Christian and they’re working on another one. They already have a Bryan, 3 Brians, a Brandon and a Blake, a Justin, two Joshes, a Jeff and a Jackson, a Michael and a LaMichael, two Nicks but they’re losing one Nate. It’s a good thing Chip Kelly is a player’s coach; if he were a yeller and a face-mask grabber he would collapse in frustration by day two of spring practice.


Norm Chow is out at UCLA and has joined the staff at PAC-12 rival Utah as offensive coordinator. Coaching upheaval at UCLA and Stanford has hampered their efforts to close in the critical last weeks of recruiting. Chow’s ouster has been rumored for weeks, and on The Farm, new head coach David Shaw has to replace himself and two key assistants, Greg Roman and Vic Fangio.

Chow had a great reputation as a teacher of quarterbacks while at BYU and USC. He seemed to have lost his mojo under Rick Neuheisel, succumbing to the general malaise in Westwood and Kevin Prince’s inability to stay healthy. At 64, he’ll have to adjust his philosophy some to coach the Utah spread, but the Ute faithful seem genuinely excited to have him back in the Beehive State.

USC made their appeal to the NCAA today; a ruling should be made in about 4-8 weeks. The Trojans have used the loophole to sign about 27 recruits in this class, when the NCAA sanctions would have limited them to 15. Oversigning has been a rampant practice in the SEC for years, and the Kiffins have been pushing hard, stealing two top recruits from Stanford this week, and making a hard push for several kids the Ducks are also after, including Marqis Lee, DT Christian Heyward and BJ Kelly.

Wes Byrum missed two field goals today in the East-West Shrine Game. The hex Duck fans put on him worked two weeks too late.  Kenny Rowe, playing for the East, had a sack on Wisconsin's Scott Tolzien that led to a safety.  Brandon Bair reportedly had a good week of workouts, while Jeff Maehl got some less favorable grades--he's being typecast as a player who lacks a burst.  They said the same thing about Steve Largent and Fred Biletnikoff.  Casey Matthews plays in next week's Senior Bowl.  The continued success of Ducks at the next level helps ward off the negative recruiting labels about the Oregon system.  The real breakthrough will come when Dennis Dixon or Darron Thomas gets a true opportunity to succeed as an NFL quarterback.  If Thomas has two more years to fill out and mature, he could be the guy.

Gene Wojciechowski of espn.com: “The Cam Newton Affair still stinks.” Auburn and Mississippi State and the SEC want to pretend it will all go away, but it won’t. Auburn recently got a commitment from former Texas recruit Christian Westerman, a standout offensive tackle. Texas lost ground in recruiting wars after recent coaching changes, and Auburn’s losing four wide bodies on the offensive line who’ve used up their eligibility and have to leave the Auburn payroll.

Friday, January 21, 2011

Gossip, Rumors, Innuendo, Speculation and Tidbits: Hey, it's what we do

A media guy I know took exeption to my Seastrunk post. Everybody blames media, he notes, when it's largely message boards and BLOGS that fuel rumors. Ouch.
Sure it rains, but you've got facilities, coaching, great community and academic support, an electrifying offense, and the Duck.
espn.com named UO's Don Pellum the top recruiting coordinator in the nation. Oregon's class tops among northern schools.
Chip Kelly crisscrossed the country this week on recruiting trips, Iowa and California on Wednesday alone.
Javes Lewis' decision to declare for the draft is perplexing. A year starting at a lower division school might have improved his stock.
LSU names former Louisville head coach Steve Kragthorpe to replace Gary Crowton as OC. An upgrade, but there's bound to be a break-in period.

Reloading the Defense: the Secondary

On the depth chart, the losses in the secondary are Talmadge Jackson III, and reserves Marvin Johnson, Chad Peppars and Javes Lewis.  John Boyett, Cliff Harris and Eddie Pleasant all return.

This is a unit where the Ducks have been stockpiling talent for a couple of seasons, and talent wins out.  It is so deep Pleasant might return to linebacker.  The Ducks have a bunch of gifted young defensive backs that will keep coming at you like zombies who can run a 4.5 40.  Sophomore transfer Marcus Davis started as a freshman at Texas. Tigard grad Scott Grady has already won some playing time on special teams; he had 3 pass breakups and a fumble recovery last year, appearing in twelve games.

Redshirt freshman Brian Jackson, a sophomore-to-be, has been solid in spot duty.  Against Portland State he had eight tackles, an interception and a forced fumble.  He can play all four spots and has good size for a defensive back at 5-10 192.

Terrance Mitchell looks like a star in the making.  The departing seniors rave about his potential.  In last year's spring game he had the only pick six Darron Thomas has thrown in his college career.  He has top flight speed and instincts.  The redshirt freshman was a two-way player at Sacramento's Luther Burbank High School.  He ran for over 2.360 yards as a prep senior, all-league, all-city and all-state at defensive back.  Mitchell is a tall corner at 6-0 183.

Detroit native Dior Mathis oozes confidence and ability, a state sprint champion in high school who won a spring 60 meter feature race with five othe football teammates.  He has great ball skills and lockdown potential.  Mathis, also a redshirt freshmen in 2010, was rated the number 9 corner in the country by espn.com.

Troy Hill and James Scales could challenge for playing time.  Safety Erick Dargan was a three-time Scout Player of the Week last fall, a big, athletic defensive back at 5-11, 206. 

Senior-to-be Anthony Gildon has three years' experience and good coverage skills, a hard worker who has a 38-inch vertical leap, and pound-for-pound, finished third on the entire team in weight room testing with a combined mark of 946 pounds (squat, clean and bench).  6-1, 185, Gildon appeared in 12 games last season, and had 18 tackles.  If one of the youngsters wants to start, they'll have to outplay Gildon in practice.  Avery Patterson from Pittsburgh. California, the same defensive backfield that produced Dargan, had 19 tackles and a pick in his first season.  Patterson will also be a factor.  He wears #31.

In his seven years at Oregon secondary coach John Neal has sent about eight guys to the NFL, including four in the last two years, and several of those have become stars at the next level, notably TJ Ward and Jairus Byrd.  Incoming recruit Ifo Ekpre-Olomu (5'10, 180) could be the next of these, a four-star prospect from Chino Hills California with Cliff Harris-like cover skills.

Like everyone else on this impressive list, he'll have to earn his time.

Juicy Recruiting Talk

Matt Prehm of Duck Territory did a radio interview podcast for 541radio.com released this morning.  Among the highlights:

The two newest commits, Devon Blackmon and Colt Lylerla are truly elite in speed and athletic ability.

Over the last two years, Oregon has seriously upgraded its recruiting on the offensive line, with athletes who can run and move but also have the frame to achieve 300+ lbs., notably Nick Rowland, James Euschler of Aloha, and Andre Yruretagoyena.

The reports of Lache Seastrunk leaving are greatly exaggerated, mostly a product of the media keeping it alive by asking questions.  Seastrunk has had the normal first year growing pains and challenges, but at no time has he come out and said, "I'm homesick, I'm leaving, I need a new opportunity."

Ducks are still in the running for three or four more top recruits, including Brendan Jackson, Delvon Simmons, B.J. Kelly and Marqise Lee.  (Christian Heyward is another, at a position of need.)

At wide receiver, the Ducks are adding elite speed in Rahsaan Vaughn, Tacoi Sumler and Blackmon.  (The dramatic upgrade in the vertical passing attempt could put a whole new level of pressure on defense, and give Darron Thomas the weapons to exploit defenses that overcommit to the run.)

In recruiting, no one breaks it down better than Prehm, who is locked in to sources within the program and all other the country, including the prospects themselves in many cases.  If the Ducks have a fast, hard, finish on this class, it will loaded, and a half dozen of them are potential impact players who could challenge for playing time as freshman

Thursday, January 20, 2011

Reloading the Defense, part four: Linebackers

Nick Aliotti loses four-year starter Casey Matthews, reliable Spencer Paysinger, and reserve Bryson Littlejohn, but he and position coach Don Pellum have ample options left in the linebacker corps.

Michael Clay, Boseko Lokombo and Josh Kaddu all got plenty of playing time in this year's rotation.  In fact Clay was eighth on the team with 42 tackles, tops among nonstarters in just his sophomore year.  Lokombo, a special teams stalwart who returned a fumble for a touchdown against Arizona State, was just behind him with 36 and three total fumble recoveries, displaying a nose for the football and good athletic ability.  Kaddu added 32 tackles and 2.5 sacks. 

The big issue will be depth.  These three are promising, capable replacements for the departing seniors, but a linebacker rotation that went seven deep in 2010 is suddenly thinner and far less experienced, more vulnerable to injury.  Dewitt Stuckey returns for his senior year, and  he's seen a little time in all three seasons, chiefly on special teams, and at 5-11 221 he may thrive with a greater opportunity to play and contribute.  After sitting out a year for a disciplinary suspension Kiko Alonso, 6-4, 222, will have new resolve, and reports are he blew things up on the scout team and in practice.  He'll be determined to make a mark in his final two years of elibility, and has a big upside.

A couple of talented newcomers might contribute immediately.  Colt Lyerla might be inserted in this group, and he has the physical maturity and talent to make an impact in his first year.  Texas state 4-star recruit Anthony Wallace is a potential star at 6-2 220, and the Dallas native wants to play right away.  The son of a former NFL player, gifted and sought after, Wallace could be a potential star.   He has all-conference physical tools.  He's also a top student, easily the highest-rated linebacker prospect the Ducks have ever signed if he does send in his letter of intent.

Position shifts could also deepen the talent pool.  Eddie Pleasant might rejoin the linebackers after a year at safety.  He seems a more natural fit here despite his tweener size at 5-11, 213.  At times Pleasant looked lost in coverage playing deep, and at LB he can better use his exceptional speed and agility to make plays and attack the football.  Depending on their development, Tyson Coleman, Derrick Malone and Isaac Dixon could end up taking practice reps with this group.  Recruits Rahim Cassell and Carlyle Garrick are probably a year away from contributing, but the Ducks still might get a late commit from a potential difference maker.  Branden Jackson, a teammate of Oregon target DT Delvon Simmons, is still uncommitted and remains a possibility.  Lamar Dawson, a 6-2, 230-lb. middle linebacker from Danville, Kentucky, is another.

With another off season to train, Clay, Kaddu, Lokombo, Stuckey and Alonso are probably an upgrade in speed and agility from Matthews and Paysinger.  The challenge will be to replace the departing seniors' leadership, instincts, experience and understanding of the system.  If Oregon's defense is to be as effective and ball hawking as last year's, they will have to play big, stay healthy, and achieve their potential.

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

cfnscout.com has a 2011 Top Ten with Alabama #1, LSU #2, Oklahoma #3, and no Oregon.  Boise State is number nine, and Ohio State, with five starters suspended for five games, is #5.  Not credible.
Duck Sports Now and espn.com report the Ducks are finalists for two top 150 California recruits, S/WR Marqise Lee and DT Christian Heyward. Class-capping gets, if they commit.

Sports Math Can Give You an Ice Cream Headache

If Andrew Luck had entered the NFL draft, he was a sure #1 pick and destined to make about $50 million. But he wanted to finish his degree, in Architectural Design.  At least he'll have something to fall back on.  First-year architects make about $50,000 a year.  Someone get Lloyds of London on the phone.

Have to admire Luck for following his heart.   He's a tremendous college football player, a good student, and by all accounts a well-rounded person.  Hope he stays healthy.  Can't see how he would damage his draft stock, as he is as solid an NFL prospect as anyone who's come along since John Elway.   But the new collective bargaining agreement could slash millions off his potential deal.
USA Today says Les Miles stayed at LSU even though Michigan offered over 4 million a year. How will he fare matching wits with Chip Kelly on Sept 3?  Offhand, I think the Ducks are getting more bang for their buck.  We'll see.

Roster Moves and Minor Shocks

This time of year creates transitions and adjustments.  The Ducks got a minor shock today when it was announced Javes Lewis has declared for the NFL draft.  Rob Moseley reported it first, noting Lewis started 12 games in 2009, and isn't likely to be drafted.  He wasn't slated to start this season, but as an experienced senior his absence will be felt a little. 

Marvin Johnson, Brian Jackson, Marcus Davis and Eric Dargan will compete to replace him.  All four have a lot of promise, and the Ducks are utterly loaded with speed and athletic ability in the secondary.  Opposite Cliff Harris next season defensive backfield coach John Neal could send out Anthony Gildon, or talented redshirt freshmen Dior Mathis, Terrance Mitchell, James Scales or Troy Hill, or special team standout Scott Grady, or Avery Patterson.  It's a deep group, and I even left out a few names.  Lewis was a good tackler and steady, but on the plus side, this frees up another scholarship, and motivates this talented bunch to vie for his snaps.

On the offensive side of the ball, there have been rumblings and grumblings to suggest that speedster Lache Seastrunk is frustrated at sitting out for his redshirt season, misses the limelight, and is contemplating a transfer.  Many have referenced an interview with an Alabama reporter he did during the buildup to the national championship, the reporter asking him several leading questions about regretting his decision to choose Oregon over Auburn during his recruitment.

The rumors don't have legs, I'm thinking.  Seastrunk has used his redshirt season, and would sit out a year if he transferred.  At Auburn he'd be behind Michael Dyer and Onterio McCalebb, and the Tigers are losing 20 seniors and four offensive linemen.  The future's a lot brighter in Oregon if he stays, and if he keeps working and avoids the temptation to sulk, his innovative head coach will find ways to feature his talents.

One of the challenges of success and recruiting better and better athletes is that it becomes more and more difficult to find touches for everyone.  The Ducks have a core of high-character guys who care more about winning than individual glory, and they dictate the identity and attitude of the team.  LaMichael James, Kenjon Barner, Darron Thomas and Josh Huff aren't the kind of players who run to the stat sheet in the locker room.  They measure themselves in wins.  I'm confident Seastrunk will come around.  He's a sensitive young man, and proud, but he's not a prima donna.  Traveling 1600 miles away from home to college is a big adjustment, and Gary Campbell has famously guided some great Oregon runners through a similar trial.

Reloading the Defense, Part 3: the defensive ends

The Ducks lose six starters as we have discussed before, but because of their deep rotation this year on defense, they return 19 players who played significant snaps on a very good unit last season.  Here is a look at the defensive ends, where line coach Jerry Azzinaro loses Kenny Rowe and reserve Tyrell Irvin:

Defensive ends:  Terrell Turner, Dion Jordan, Brandon Hanna
Prospects and Newcomers:  Anthony Anderson, Tony Washington, Colt Lyerla, Sam Kamp

#45 Turner, a 6-3, 261-lb. senior in 2011, had 33 tackles last season, 2.5 sacks, an interception in the Civil War, and one memorable interview with Chip Kelly. Turner has good quickness and a good motor and he flies to the football.  The one thing he lacks, of course, like many of the Oregon defensive linemen, is premier size.  As a returning starter he'll be counted on to anchor the d-line and step up his production.  He is athletic and smart on the field, and should emerge as one of the leaders on the defense next year.

From Crenshaw High in Los Angeles, Turner is a converted linebacker and one of the strongest players on the team.  He's a member of the Oregon Iron Club who totaled 1204 lbs. in the squat, clean and bench press in testing last winter, tied for the team high with a 395-lb. bench.

Vocal and funny, the popular Turner is great for team chemistry, particularly since he has a great work ethic in the weight room and classroom.  He could also give a seminar on how to properly form the "O," as he demonstrates in his "Turner Time" segments.

#96 Dion Jordan is 6-7, 230, a converted tight end from Chandler, Arizona.  In his first season on defense he also had 33 tackles, including four in the national championship game, two sacks and 5.5 tackles for loss for the year. 

Jordan has the frame to get stronger, and as a former wide receiver he possesses exceptional speed for a defensive linemen, tops in the group with an electronically-timed 4.77 in the 40.  He's athletic enough to replace Kenny Rowe in the 3-4 "drop end" role, although Duck fans have to hope Coach Aliotti eliminates the coverage glitch that Auburn exploited in Glendale and Ohio State did in the Rose Bowl, getting a defensive end isolated one-on-one with a wide receiver without help behind him.  With his long wingspan Jordan can be fearsome in the pass rush or in the flat, but he has no business out on a island in the deep third.

Jordan played both ways in high school, and lost a significant part of his senior year to a serious accident.  He was burned while cleaning up spilled gasoline with a shop vac, hospitalized with third-degree burns.  Oregon stuck with him, and now three years later, he could be ready to emerge as an instinctive, resourceful and hard-to-block weapon on the edge.  Jordan also has a tremendous motor and athletic ability.  Nick Aliotti has said he was born to play defense, and the reasons should be even more evident in his junior year and first season as the undisputed starter.

#44 Brandon Hanna is a capable role player, a converted linebacker, 6-2, 234, from Coeur d'Alene, Idaho.  Hanna had 18 tackles last season and two sacks, including one against UCLA on Richard Brehaut, forcing a fumble deep in Bruin territory that Marvin Johnson recovered at the two.   Note the glazed look it creates in Rick Neuheisel's eyes as Hanna bullrushes through a helpless UCLA tackle and the Ducks punch it in on the next play to go ahead 60-6.

Hanna plays with good intensity.  He got another sack against Ryan Katz in the Civil War, chasing him down as he's flushed out of the pocket.  Hanna still moves like a linebacker, playing tough in space, but as we learned painfully in Glendale, the Ducks' lack of size up front can make them vulnerable to the power running game.  They are ideally suited, however, to defending against other spread teams and passing offenses, able to bring pressure from multiple angles and pursue with frenzy.  Like much in defensive football, it's a tradeoff.  The Ducks have to be fierce and tenacious to overcome their supposed liabilities, and their record and steady defensive improvement speaks volumes.

This off season, they'll continue to work to improve their quickness, technique and strength to overcome that apparent disadvantage.  The continued development and determination among these three will accomplish a lot for Oregon's defense.  They have to defend the edge and get to the passer, and find ways to defeat hook blocks and pulling guards, avoid being snowed under by jumbo formations and beefy fronts.

Help is on the way.  The Ducks have verbal commitments from Lylerla and 6-5, 237-lb. defensive end Sam Kamp from Mesa, Arizona.  Kamp probably needs a year to mature and adjust to the college game after losing his season season of high school ball to a broken clavicle he suffered in a summer passing league.  The injury required surgery and he was held out of contact for 6-9 months, and Kamp dedicated himself to the weight room in recovery.

The 6-5 225-lb. Lyerla will be closely watched by Duck fans in spring drills.  He's enrolling early to participate.  The most highly-rated of Oregon recruits, the Hillsboro High product has the athleticism to excel at a half dozen positions, from wide receiver to tight end, defensive end or linebacker.  He would be a great fit at the drop end position, but with a 4.55 40 time, it's hard not to save him for a role in the Oregon offense.  He played all over the field as a prep, running back, wide receiver and linebacker, rushing for 1519 yards and 25 touchdowns on the way to a 5A state championship and Offensive Player of the Year in 2009.

Anderson, a redshirt sophomore in 2011 and Washington, a redshirt freshmen, also have promise.  #91 Washington shined on the scout team this year, and at 6-3 245 the Los Osos High product is still maturing physically.  He has good speed for a defensive end, running about a 4.7 40, with 87 tackles and 11.5 sacks his senior year of high school.   #85 Anderson is 6-5, 233, also a high school basketball star at Helix High in Spring Valley California.

Both these players will be looking to make an impression and work their way into the rotation in spring ball.  Washington in particular could blossom into an NFL-quality talent if he continues to apply himself and get stronger.

Another Video Review of a Pivotal Play

Oregon Duck Soup has a replay of Cliff Harris' second interception in the national championship game--his foot was down, he tucks ball away, spins around, puts his hand on the turf, rolls out of bounds, holds the ball aloft and tosses it to the official.

The signal on the field was, out of bounds.  The official did not signal "incomplete."   It looked like Harris took a complete step on the field of play before his landing.

It was a close play in a close game, let's say that.   Critical to the outcome, as Auburn scored a touchdown on the next play.

This season, with a year to mature and having established himself as a leader and a playmaker, Harris could emerge as one of the best cornerbacks in the nation.  The instincts he shows in this video tape, the break on the ball he takes, shows what a rare talent he is.  Harris is covering another receiver on the play, and goes after the football like it was intended for him.

All told, he had three tackles, two memorable quotes, an interception and a fumble recovery in the national championship.  A junior next season, Harris may be the most refreshing and original interview in sports since Muhammad Ali,  well on his way to becoming a Duck legend.

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Whispers and musings and notes from all over

National signing day is February 2, the first Wednesday in February. Poster on Moseley's blog  says spring practice starts March 28. About 68 days.

The spring game is Sat April 30.  Ducks might draw 40,000 for that this year.
Tony D of oregon.rivals.com reports that pending their appeal USC can sign a full class of 25. Doesn't seem right.
Josh Barr, recruiting insider for the Washington Post, reports DT Kevin McReynolds has scratched UO from his list. Couldn't agree on a visit date.
Matt Hinton of rivals.com, "Dr. Saturday" notes 19 of the 26 5-star players in the 2010 class played significantly as true freshmen. Seven started.

All potential means is that you haven't done anything yet

While it's reasonable to be excited about this year's recruiting class, there's a major caveat: these Ducks of the future have to finish academically and adjust athletically and socially. Not every recruit does so. See Diante Jackson and Tyrece Gaines.

In the case of recruits like Andre Y, Delvon Simmons and Marcus Mariota, they have to mature physically to maximize their potential.  All three of them may need a year in the weight room to fill out to be fully ready for PAC-12 play.

An Overlooked Duck With a World of Promise

Recruiting services don't know everything.  Joey Harrington, Kellen Clemens and Dennis Dixon weren't five-star recruits, and Johnny Durocher was rated higher than any of them.  Darron Thomas was a four-star athlete, but Chip Kelly saw the quarterback in him, and the character.  Now he's a sophomore star who led the Ducks to a conference championship and a 12-1 record in his first year running the show.

Marcus Mariota could be that kind of undervalued success story.  The websites give him a "meh" 3-star kiss-off, but they're overlooking a lot.   The young man was state offensive player of the year at St. Louis High in Hawaii (the school where Jeremiah Masoli went for his senior year) while passing for 2597 yards, 32 touchdowns and just five interceptions.  He led his team to the state finals, completing 66% of his passes.  He ran for 455 yards and seven touchdowns.  His senior year passer rating was an eye-catching 189.97.

Oh yeah, he's 6-4, 195 and runs a 4.4 40. And he's smart, a serious student, carrying a 4.15 grade average.  Here's his senior year highlight video.

Mariota also has things you can't measure or put in a highlight tape.  He is bright, mature, grounded and poised.  He has a solid family structure and an exceptional work ethic.  He chose Oregon despite the presence of two strong quarterbacks in Thomas and Brian Bennett, and the concurrent commitment of touted Florida product Jerrard Randall.  He wants to win, and compete.  He's a Chip Kelly kind of guy.

There's a lot to like in his highlight reel.  Mariota goes through progressions and makes a variety of throws.  He has a strong arm, able to crank it up to 70 yards, and has both touch and precision, a nice, high release.  He throws extremely well on the run and creates plays out of the pocket, scanning the field even when things break down.  He improvises.  He's makes good decisions under pressure. 

Operating out of a spread offense that will look very familiar to Oregon fans, Mariota shows quickness and fluidity when he pulls the ball down, and he cuts upfield, a very efficient runner, courageous and decisive.  He's well-coached with solid fundamentals, throws accurately rolling out either to his right or his left.  Watch him tossing fade routes, seam routes, dump offs, crossing patterns, streaks.  Excellent trajectory, on time, in stride.

This young man is an achiever and a competitor, and he's been solid to Oregon throughout his recruiting.  In Thomas, Bennett, Mariota and Randall, the Ducks have four quarterbacks in various stages of development who are 1) perfect for the Oregon system and 2) Chip Kelly proteges.  The future of the quarterback position is very bright in Eugene, particularly when you consider they also have Darryle Hawkins in the slash role, a very solid athlete who'll probably contribute at receiver next season, while showing a willingness to do whatever is needed to help the team, including impersonating Cam Newton in preparation for the championship game.  The defense's success in containing Newton was in part a testament to Hawkins' dedication in giving them good looks during practice.

The Ducks continue to develop depth, speed and athletic ability throughout the roster, and the quarterback position has become an outstanding example.

Monday, January 17, 2011

Spencer Paysinger thinks Michael Clay and Terrance Mitchell are likely starters next year.
Dior Mathis and David Paulson both tweeted that they've already started winter workouts. Good sign from a group that shows a lot of them.
A qb and receiver who perfect their chemistry and timing have a huge edge at the goal line and in short yardage. Especially at 6-5.  Tuinei can use leverage and positioning.  Not many dbs can match up.
JC transfer Rahsaan Vaughn, though not tall like LT, has the speed and athletic ability to be effective in goal line routes. The safeties won't be able to crash the run or cheat up.
The beauty of the fade is that it's a pitch and catch route. They can perfect it in workouts. Perfect for LT, tall and athletic.

A Play Darron Thomas and Lavasier Tuinei Must Master, and other links

Lavasier Tuinei is 6-5 with extraordinarily long arms and good body control.  He catches the ball well in traffic.  He's a former high school basketball player.

He and Darron Thomas should make it a point this off season to work on fade, skinny post and other goal line routes.  Here's a breakdown of the fade play from smartfootball.com.

Oregon struggled in the red zone against Auburn, and mastery of this one-on-one play would give the Ducks another weapon in red zone situations.  Thomas and Tuinei could develop a lot of confidence in each other, perfecting the play in off season drills.  Working against Oregon's talented cornerbacks in 1-on-1 and 3-on-2 drills, Thomas could learn where to position the ball, and the right speeds and trajectories to make maximum advantage of Tuinei's frame and skills.
cbssports.com projects the top 50 of the NFL draft and there are no Ducks. Oregon's success a tribute to coaching and teamwork.  It's a long-term, forward-thinking operation.  No rent-a-players here.
Espn reports Auburn's Darvin Adams is also entering the NFL draft. And Brett Favre is retiring again.

Rebuilding the Oregon Defense, part two

Back on August 31st, we predicted the 2010 Oregon defense would be special.  It didn't take the Amazing Kreskin or Chriss Angel to figure that out.  Not even Lee Corso or Lou Holtz.  The Ducks' Tenacious D held opponents to just 244 points in 13 games. and kept the National Champion Auburn Tigers to 22.  They were fast, hard-hitting and resilient.  They forced 37 turnovers and dictated the outcome of games.  They were exciting to watch, and played with enormous heart.

And now, half of the starters will be gone.  Nick Aliotti has the uneviable task of replacing Brandon Bair, Kenny Rowe, Zac Clark, Spencer Paysinger, Casey Matthews, and Talmadge Jackson III.  These were six warriors that Duck fans will remember a long time.  Each brought leadership, experience, and a fierce will to win.

Players with that kind of integrity and effort are not found hanging around the student union, or on the web pages of some recruiting service.  Players like that are made in the weight room, the film room, the practice field, and the living rooms of the families that shaped their character.  They won't be easily replaced.

But this is college football, and part of the charm and challenge of the sport is that this happens every four years.  Memorable players come through our lives and win our hearts, and then they move on to their careers and lives outside of college football.  A few will go on to the NFL.  All of them will remain Ducks, and each will receive a warm greeting any time they return to Autzen Stadium.  A special thank you has to go to these six, for the standard they set, the fierce effort they made, and the pride they brought to Oregon football.  They were the backbone of what may be the best defense the UO has ever had.  They are two-time Conference Champions, 22-4 over the last two years, 41-11 in the last four.

Paysinger and Matthews formed one of the most effective linebacker tandems since Asher and Ruhl.  Their work ethic and maturity set the pace for the defensive unit, and on the field, each could be counted on to make plays and be in the right place.  Bair carried on a fine tradition of Oregon defensive tackles, from Steve Baack to Rollin Putzier to Haloti Ngata.  He improved steadily and got the most out of his ability.  Rowe and Clark added pursuit and tenacity, the effort to make big stops.

Talmadge Jackson III drew pointed criticism from Duck fans, but he became a complete player through hard work, turning up with a big interception in the Civil War, proving himself to be a sure tackler and a dependable corner.   Secondary John Neal praised him as a player who consistently did everything right, every meeting, every practice, every class.  He was on time. He was where he was supposed to be.  And as the season wore on, opponents completed fewer and fewer passes to his side, until it seemed they were avoiding him altogether.  Cliff Harris got the headlines, and we love Cliff, but TJIII became a guy everyone overlooked, but his teammates could count on every play.

This winter and this spring, Nick Aliotti begins the imposing task of replacing these six, a half dozen Ducks who help bring Oregon defensive football to a new level of speed and intensity.  A flashy offense got the headlines, but they were the substance behind the flash.

An Appeal from keeerrrrttt

If you've ever downloaded or viewed Oregon highlights on the web, you've probably enjoyed clips from Kurt Liedtke, keeerrrttt, who has had over 7 million hits on his youtube channel.  Recently he received notification from youtube that because of a formal copyright complaint from ESPN, youtube may shut down his channel at any time.

keeerrrttt has become an informal archivist and keeper of Duck history, and he makes a passionate appeal to the athletic department to consider carrying on his work.  "There's a huge market out there," he says, tremendous interest from Ducks all over the world, including fans, ex-players, the families of athletes, and members of the Duck faithful station in Iraq or Afghanistan.

There's something special about being able to retrieve video highlights from different eras of Duck football at the click of a mouse.  Curious move by ESPN, particularly when Kurt's channel has given new life to old ESPN highlights, and they've featured his videos on various shows.

In a digital age, permissions and copyrights are tricky business.  Here at The Duck Stops Here, I try to use other people's work in a way that celebrates its quality, and directs viewers back to the original source whenever possible.  I try to be painstakingly consistent about citing and attributing.  Kurt and Mike Wines do also.  If the University and big pockets news sources persist in being heavy-handed about controlling their brands and squashing the little guys, all they will do is choke off a rich source of knowledge, information and promotion.  We do what we do because we love the Ducks.  We're just baking a little tart  that entices people to cross the street.  They still own the big bakery on the corner.
At si.com Doug Flutie has a different view of the NCG: it was great coaching by Chip Kelly, and a solid effort by DT to keep it close.

Sunday, January 16, 2011

One game will not define them, ever.
Lot of pride and maturity in that locker room. No doubt these guys will be back.
A week has passed. Check out the post game video on oregonlive.com