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Friday, July 30, 2010

A Wayward Duck Goes to the Spin Doctor and Flies Southeast

Holy Masoli! Will it ever end?

The mess halls of every minimum and maximum security prison in the country are filled with innocent men, guys with a story or an alibi, guys who were framed or got caught up in a situation.

All of them had a right to a trial and an attorney, and all of them were convicted or copped a plea.

Jeremiah Masoli launched a website yesterday and scheduled a trip to Oxford Mississippi in pursuit of another second chance. The story is he was in the wrong place at the wrong time with the wrong guys. All three times. The drugs weren't his. He never stole no laptop. The DA pressured him into taking the deal.

Jeremiah Masoli is the latest in a long line of talented athletes with no sense. Todd Marinovich. Art Schlichter. Mike Tyson. Maurice Clarett. Tonya Harding. Ben Roethlisberger. Onterrio Smith. Joe Don Looney. Denny McClain. Lawrence Taylor. Some of their stories are tragic and some are comical. I remember Billy Joe Hobart, an infamous wayward quarterback from the Washington Huskies, who once said, "Half the money I spent on guns and beer and the other half I just wasted." These are men and women (mostly men) with million dollar bodies and ten-cent heads, fueled by arrogance and testosterone, men blessed with prodigious ability but a terrible knack for getting into scrapes and getting in their own way.

The spin piece at SI.com notwithstanding, Jeremiah Masoli has a track record he can't explain away. He lied to the police, his coach and his teammates. He let down the most devoted fan base West of Alabama. He was supposed to be the leader, the example, the one who said, "Dude, what are you doing? Put that back. We could blow our scholarships and a chance at the National Championship, all for a lousy laptop and a guitar. Are you nuts?" Drunk and stupid and in the wrong place with the wrong people. Again. Jeremiah Masoli is done at Oregon, and should be.

The thing every minority athlete has to know is, the cops and the prosecutors are not your friends. You don't want to get in the system. You don't want to attract their attention. You're in college, you're expected to have a good time, raise a little hell and chase girls, but you have to stay out of trouble. Trouble finds some guys. And when it does, they turn the wrong way and choose the wrong way out. Jeremiah Masoli would have been just fine if he'd stayed at the frat and answered questions. Jeremiah Masoli would have been fine if he told his coach the truth.

All that said, I wish him well at Old Miss. It could be an incredible story. Maybe he could be the guy from the list above who proves his critics wrong and achieves redemption. Maybe, with his family behind him and a fresh start, Jeremiah Masoli can find his way. It would be incredibly interesting to watch him take on the SEC with an undermanned team, scramble around in the backfield and pull off a couple of upsets. It will be fun to see what he does to Les Miles and Bobby Petrino and Lou Saban and the vaunted defenses of the SEC.

On the field he was amazing to watch. If he had stayed out of trouble and stayed at Oregon, he could have completed a Hall of Fame career and possibly a Cinderella season, maybe even the stiff-arm trophy. Experienced senior quarterbacks blossom in the PAC-10, and down the stretch of his junior year Masoli was amazing. He ran for 165 yards against USC. He accounted for six touchdowns in the overtime win on the road at Arizona on a Thursday on national tv. He was the catalyst, the triggerman, unstoppable and unflappable. Fourth and season in the Civil War and he runs over a Beaver defensive back for the championship-clinching first down. He was tough, resourceful and determined.

Off the field, he threw it all away. Now he wants one more second chance, and I hope he gets it. Just not at Oregon. The Ducks have moved on.

Thursday, July 29, 2010

Costa Versus Thomas

The Ducks are not a democracy. Chip Kelly's not taking any opinion polls, and no one, except maybe Mark Helfrich, Steve Greatwood and Scott Frost, will have much input on the decision. And good luck getting the Coach to elaborate on the decision-making process. He's not much for elaboration. God love him, I don't think he's ever met a follow up question he couldn't stifle with a quick-witted quip. Maybe your parents didn't believe in you, John. I think Canzano is still stuttering over that one.

Every time he gets interviewed he gets asked, and his answer is always the same: "We don't have to name a starter until September 4th." But I'll bet my favorite Duck hat I can name the starter right now, today.

It's Nate Costa, and it isn't even close.

Way back in March, before the start of Spring practice, Coach Kelly told John Hunt of the Oregonian, "We have enough playmakers at the other spots that the quarterback in this offense does not have to be the focal point. He’s got to be more like a point guard in basketball and distribute the ball to the right guy at the right time."

Nate Costa is that guy. Steady. Mature. Poised. Cerebral. Calm. A distributor, a guy who makes solid decisions and leads with conviction. To paraphrase an old saying, if it walks like a Duck quarterback and talks like a Duck starter and acts like a Duck starter, he's the right guy to be the starter.

Replay Costa's interview with Ted Miller or the sideline reporter at the Spring Game. Observe the calm, measured, intelligent answers. Contrast this with Darron Thomas' behavior over the last three years, riding shotgun in a high speed car race, in the car when Jeremiah Masoli made his fateful midnight munchies run, spouting off on his Facebook page in support of Jamere Holland. Thomas isn't ready. The same impulsiveness that leads him to throw 4-5 balls into coverage is displayed in his off-field behavior. Visitors to summer workouts say Costa is visibly in charge running the seven-on-seven, while Darron horses around practicing roundhouse karate kicks with a group of goofoffs.

The Darron Thomas mystique is largely based on a superficial resemblance (with his helmet on) to Dennis Dixon. While the fourth quarter against Boise in his freshman season gave us all a tantalizing view of his potential, it wasn't a true measure of his ability to be starting quarterback on a national championship contender, to take the first snaps on the road before a 100,000 hostile fans in Knoxville. Down 22 in the fourth quarter, he didn't have to worry about reads, coverages or distributing the football. His only job was to take the snap and sling it. It was playground football, all aerial, count to three Mississippis and throw deep. Granted, it was impressive to see the kid flourish coming cold off the bench. Then he did it again with the wide receiver reverse to Maehl in the Civil War. The kid has a rubber band arm and nimble feet, and he has the swagger the good ones have.

The Thomas supporters all say he's faster and more athletic than the other guy, but the numbers don't bear that out. In Spring testing Darron ran a 5.03 forty, electronically timed. Costa ran 5.01. As a freshman Costa was five-for-five for 73 yards. A lot of young quarterbacks look like world beaters in their garbage time debut, although Cody Kempt didn't.

I've watched the Spring Game five times and the UCLA game three, and I see plenty to like about Costa. His detractors say he was too stiff at UCLA, but a road win over a tough defense, with one week to prepare and no one but a couple of redshirts on the bench, that was doing EXACTLY what the situation called for. He managed the game. His only interception came on a unbelievable, athletic play by a unblocked linebacker. It's a mistake he wouldn't make again. Watch the video from Spring practices and you can see how much his mobility and confidence have grown on the rebuilt knee.

The knee. That's another issue. The Thomas camp points to the knee and says, it won't possibly hold up. Injuries are a part of football, and play a critical and unpredictable role every year. It's a collision sport. You can't make decisions based on what might happen or who might get hurt. Chip Kelly has to start the guy, at every position, that gives the team the best chance to win NOW, not next year or next week or the season after. Particularly this season, when they are the defending conference champions, with 19 returning starters and a legitimate chance to be a top Ten team.

Things will have to break right for the Ducks to repeat as conference champions. They'll have win at least three of five in the critical stretch drive of the season, when they play USC, Washington, Cal, Arizona and Oregon State, with three of those, the Trojans, Bears, and Beavers, being road games for Oregon. They'll have to avoid a rash of injuries like 2007, particularly at quarterback and the defensive line.

What the country doesn't know yet is, this Oregon team is going to be scary good. The defense is going to play fast, hit and force turnovers. The offensive line and running game will be devastating, and the secondary is loaded with speed and talent. A couple of the transfer and freshmen newcomers will step up and make major contributions. Maehl, Davis and Tuinei will be far more effective than anyone anticipates. With his crisp compact delivery and field vision Costa will excel at the crossing routes and underneath stuff. Barner will develop into a weapon that comes at a defense from all angles.

In four games last year Masoli was amazing and a game-changer, but in another four he was absolutely horrid. Costa will be steady. He'll manage the zone read and the passing game, and the Ducks are a year better everywhere else. They'll be 7-0 when they unload the bus at the Coliseum. And by then everyone will know Chip Kelly made the right choice all along.

Nate Costa.

Darron Thomas had better buckle down, because Brian Bennett and Jerrard Randall are working on their passing game, not their roundhouse kicks.

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Conference Realignment

Next to the Costa/Thomas debate, PAC-10 conference realignment has been one of our most popular controversies.

A lot of folks are up in arms over the possibility of losing an annual game in SoCal, fearing it would be a detriment to recruiting.

One important point is, any alignment would be temporary. It won't be long before another tectonic shift reshapes the landscape of college football. Big money tv offers will lead to a sixteen-team conference or a 64-team superconference. When Nebraska and Colorado officially vacate the Big 12 (10), or Notre Dame joins the Big Ten, or Texas A&M bolts to the SEC, or Boise State or TCU crash the BCS, everything will be remade again. I wouldn't expect the PAC-12 to remain at twelve teams for more than five years, or maybe the life of their new tv megadeal at the outside.

Another thing is, success cures all ills, in terms of recruiting and recognition. The Ducks are recruiting nationally now. High profile kids are telling the websites, "I always wanted to play at Oregon. I like their offense and their uniforms." Jerrard Randall, all the way from Florida, said he wanted to be the next Dennis Dixon. How cool is that?

I think the best conference and division alignments are those that geographically make sense. The Eastern Media and national college football fans ought to be able to follow who's who. Nobody knows where anyone plays in the ACC, for example. The divisions ought to have some logic and foster rivalries.

In two six-team divisions, Oregon plays all the Northwest schools, Utah and Colorado, plus three teams from PAC-12 South. I like the 8-game conference schedule better than the nine. The reality is, if the PAC-12 schedules 9 conference games, the conference will go 6-6 in that extra week of games. With the big prizes in college based on perception, it's foolish to beat each other up while Alabama and Florida are scheduling another profitable home patsy like Florida International or The Citadel. The nine-game conference schedule only made sense when it was a true round robin. It's BCS suicide and ruinous for the bottom line.

The trouble with the zipper plan is that it lacks continuity and creates all kinds of inequalities and imbalances and quirks just to maintain an illusion of fairness. Geographic alignment keeps travel costs down and makes budgets more manageable, particularly in the minor sports. Just line up and play, dominate the North and go to conference title game and the Rose Bowl as often as possible. That seems like the best solution to me.