Pregame Clipboard

In case you haven't heard, Oregon hosts the New Mexico Lobos today. Kickoff is 12:30 p.m., with the game being broadcast to much of the state on Comcast Sports Net, channel 37. Direct TV has made a special arrangement to pick up the telecast in Southern Oregon. The Ducks have a streak of 77 sellouts in Autzen stadium, and 59,000-plus are expected today.

New Mexico finished next-to-last in the Mountain West last year. They needed a last-second field goal to beat Colorado State in November, lost by multiple, multiple touchdowns to Utah and TCU.

New Mexico has a new quarterback of their own, B.R. Holbrook. Holbrook, a redshirt sophomore, threw 34 passes as a backup last year. The Lobos run a no-huddle offense from a Pistol formation and pass more than they run. Their best player is middle linebacker Carmen Messina, who led the nation with 163 tackles. He's trying to follow in the footsteps of New Mexico's most noted football alumnus, Bears linebacker Brian Urlacher.

Oregon has only one player out with injury, third team center Karrington Armstrong.

Kenjon Barner gets the start at running back, with LaMichael James suspended as a result of an off-season incident involving a former girlfriend. Redshirt sophomore Darron Thomas won the starting job at quarterback over senior Nate Costa. Duck fans will be watching closely to assess his effectiveness running the offense and passing the football.

Gametime weather is forecast for the mid-seventies, with sunshine and high clouds, Oregon captains for the season opener are DT Brandon Bair, C Jordan Holmes, WR Jeff Maehl, and LB Spencer Paysinger.

Las Vegas oddsmakers posted the Ducks as a 34-point favorite.

Two PAC-10 teams have already won their season debut. USC was a 49-36 victor over Hawaii on the islands Thursday night, and Friday evening Arizona pasted Toledo 41-2 at the Glass Bowl in Ohio. The rest of the conference kicks off today:

UCLA at Kansas State
Washington at BYU
Oregon State vs. TCU, in Cowboy Stadium
Washington State at Oklahoma State
UC Davis at Cal
Sacramento State at Stanford
Portland State at ASU

Around College Football, Most of the News Requires a Law Degree

Game Day.

The Ducks are in meetings, taping up, having a pregame meal and a prayer. All the preparation is done. In just a few hours all our questions about their readiness and focus and ability will be answered.

Around college football, sadly, more news is being made by legal troubles and maneuvering than it is by actual football. North Carolina is holding out thirteen players from their game with LSU due to allegations of illegal contact with agents and other violations. The Tarheels were supposed to be darkhorse contenders for a national title, among the favorites to win the ACC, but this news rocks their program and threatens their season. The Boise State running backs coach is suspended, arrested Friday morning for a DUI. Masoli won his appeal, and will suit up today, though he's not starting. In video clips he looks even thicker than he was as a Duck. He'll need to be. The Rebels don't have much in the offensive line.

At Georgia, wide receiver A.J. Green was suspended, also as part of the NCAA's widespread investigation into agent tampering. Safety Alec Ogeltree was suspended at least one game for misdemeanor theft. He reportedly stole a scooter helmet.

Sigh. It makes me long for the days when athlete's indiscretions were swept under the rug. Is it time to pay players? Is it even realistic to consider it? I mean, could you pay them enough to ward off all the illegal inducements and corruption?

The more realistic discussion is, should boosters and agents keep paying players on the sly, or should it all be brought out into the open?

Heavier sigh. I don't want to talk about that right now. The Ducks kick off in four hours. It's time to play a football game. It's been eight long months, and this is their most promising team ever.

Nothing to See Here. Move Along, People: Arizona Rolls Toledo

Arizona 41, Toledo 2

Nick Foles passed for a pair of touchdowns and ran for another as the Arizona Wildcats rolled Toledo 41-2 in a thorough and predictable dismantling at the Glass Bowl in Toledo, Ohio.

Nic Grigsby had a nifty, weaving 32-yard run on a draw play for one score, and Juron Criner shook off a midweek concussion to pace the receivers with 11 catches for 187 yards and a touchdown. Criner's big night included two long pass plays, one a 45-yard bomb where he used his body to shield the defender, the other an over-the-shoulder catch in the end zone with a defender draped all over him for a 32-yard score. Criner, a 6-4 210-lb. junior, caught 45 balls last year and may be emerging as a big-play, go-to weapon in the Arizona spread passing attack.

The game went as expected and taught us little about Arizona's PAC-10 prospects. The young defense wasn't tested by an overmatched Toledo squad, which finished 3-5 in the MAC last season. Foles and Grigsby looked sharp, with Stoops taking no chances, keeping Foles in the game until early in the fourth quarter. The junior quarterback was 32-37 passing for 360 yards.

Holy Masoli! JM Wins Another Second Chance

He was an escape artist in the pocket, an athletic magician who excelled at creating something out of nothing and trucking whoever got in his way.

The NCAA announced today that Jeremiah Masoli has won his appeal and is cleared to play for Ole Miss as early as this weekend. Masoli has scrambled free again.

Now that the legal machinations are over, Masoli is free to move about the country and so are the Ducks. On the Scott Van Pelt show today Chip Kelly said he loved Jeremiah Masoli and wished him well, and most Duck fans would agree. He messed up. He's getting another chance elsewhere, just like he did at St. Louis High, just like he did at Oregon. He's free to pursue his Masters Degree in Recess Technology and see if he can crack the Rebels starting lineup and cook some ravioli out of their mostly empty cupboard.

Where he goes from here is all on him. It will be fun to check the scoreboard at espn.go.com and see how it goes for him.

But I'm way more interested in the quarterbacks who are still wearing green and yellow. Or whatever color combination the Ducks wear on Saturday.

Getting Real at O-Live

In general, Oregon fans are blessed in terms of the media and newspaper coverage of their team. Pick up a paper or visit a website coming out of Los Angeles, Seattle or the Bay Area, and you can't find a paragraph without an embedded sneer.

The typical college football writer is weary, jaundiced and cynical, and delights in puncturing the expectations of the fan base and pointing out the flaws and failings of the team he covers. They're an adversarial lot, impervious to criticism, indifferent to passion, just wanting to pound out the column and get back to the hotel bar.

It's not like that here in Oregon. Rob Moseley, John Hunt, and Ken Goe cover the team with enthusiasm and professionalism. They are objective and impartial, but all three seem to appreciate the hard work and talent of the athletes, and convey a genuine interest in college football in their work.

Oregon fans are blessed to have three writers who are so hard-working and informative, writers that understand you can be objective without being obsessively negative. Believe me, if you had to read John Wilner or Bud Withers every day you'd recognize the difference. For the nearest local example, read Dwight Jaynes' blog. The Godfather is the king of seen-it-all, having never encountered a story he wasn't already tired of hearing about.

A sports writer can't have it both ways. If sports aren't important, why don't you get another job? True, it's the toy department of life, but the passion and sacrifice and courage displayed are genuine, and worth celebrating. Of course it's just a game. We have all week to be serious and attend to serious things. Fall Saturdays are for tailgating and screaming like fools. It's a pageant, a human drama, compelling, seeped in history and tradition. Sneer if you want, but that's the easy way out. It's the easiest thing in the world to be a detached critic and lampoon anyone who gives a damn. For some people that role is a way of life.

I wouldn't begin to put Goe and Hunt in that category. They do their job in a balanced way and both deliver a volume of top-notch information every day. They're observant, diligent and fair. Like many Duck fans I pore over their dispatches every day, and benefit from a increased knowledge and appreciation of what's going on at practice.

But their objectivity and impartiality goes out the window when they try to make predictions. In a post titled "Oregon football: The beat reporters' season predictions" Hunt and Goe take a stab at forecasting the Ducks' season:

Opponent
New Mexico Goe: W, 38-0 Hunt: W, 49-9
@Tennessee Goe: W, 20-3 Hunt: L, 24-21
PSU Goe: W, 61-7 Hunt: W, 55-7
@ASU Goe: W, 24-14 Hunt: W, 17-13
Stanford Goe: L, 21-20 Hunt: W, 44-31
@WSU Goe: W, 41-13 Hunt: W, 52-13
UCLA Goe: W, 30-10 Hunt: W, 41-17
@USC Goe: L, 16-14 Hunt: L, 33-28
Washington Goe: W, 27-17 Hunt: W, 38-27
@Cal Goe: L, 28-23 Hunt: L, 35-28
Arizona Goe: W, 31-21 Hunt: W, 42-24
@OSU Goe: L, 19-17 Hunt: L, 40-37

Several things jump out here. Both writers have the Ducks at 8-4 and going to one of the conference's minor bowls. They both predict losses to USC, Cal, and OSU on the road, and Hunt thinks Oregon will drop one early to Tennessee. Ken Goe has the prolific UO offense grounded for much of the year, managing just 14 points against the USC defense that just gave up 36 to Hawaii, a middling team in the WAC.

Oregon has averaged nearly 38 points a game for the last three seasons. They return all five starters on the offensive line, two fleet and elusive running backs and a defense that looks to be outstanding.

Objectively, 8-4 is a worst case scenario, not a season prediction. The Oregonian beat writers are bending over backwards to be pessimistic. Makes sense though, because it gets people reading and talking about it.

The Duck Stops Here is a Duck fan blog, and we don't pretend to be objective. But if the Ducks go no better than 8-4 I will walk to the Sun Bowl on foot.

Days of Future Passed: What Duck Fans Learned in Two Past Openers

Those who fail to learn from history are condemned to be moody and blue.

Oregon fans have enjoyed openers that were harbingers of youthful promise, and openers that left them shell-shocked and grasping for answers. You don't have to look very far back to find evidence that every football game is winnable, or losable, depending on effort and readiness.

Predictions don't matter. Blocking and tackling and fielding kicks do. We entertain ourselves with outlooks and analysis, but when the whistle blows, one team is ready and the other isn't, and success depends on who moves the pile in the right direction. Mike Bellotti used to say he could tell who was going to win a game just by watching the line play in the early going. Victory is a matter of will, execution, and desire. It's decisively evidenced in the nuetral zone. Whoever claims it claims the scoreboard, and the chance to keep competing for meaningful prizes at the end of the year.

2004: Indiana 30, Oregon 24

In season openers the Ducks have had their days where everything went right. At Autzen, they've won 16 out of 17 in home openers, but the one loss was cautionary: they laid a giant, rotten egg versus Indiana in 2004, fumbling and missing tackles until a four-touchdown underdog looked like a juggernaut. The Ducks lost four fumbles and Kellen Clemens threw three picks.

It was a weird game, a time warp classic. Oregon's four fumbles all came in the first half. On their first possession Clemens fumbled on a sack and the Hoosiers capitalized with an early field goal. Then the next two times Indiana had the ball the Duck defense held, but Aaron Gipson and Terrance Whitehead fumbled punts to give the underdog visitors great field position and an extra possession, which they converted into touchdowns. Whitehead, a tough runner and an Oregon stalwart throughout his career, had another fumble in the second quarter. That led to a third Indiana field goal and a nightmare, surreal halftime score of 23-0, Indiana.

On this day the Hoosiers had all the answers. They returned a kickoff 98 yards for a touchdown after Oregon got on the board early in the third quarter with a 35-yard pass from Clemens to Dante Rosario. The Ducks had about a dozen future NFL players on the roster that day and Indiana had, count 'em, none. Indiana's BenJarvus Green-Ellis, not a household name before or since, led all rushers with 29 carries for 91 yards.

Indiana had 71 yards passing (quarterback Matt LoVecchio was 6-18) and 127 rushing but still won 30-24. The Ducks outgained them 495-198, but the seven turnovers were too much to overcome. Two of Clemens' picks came inside the Hoosier twenty-yard line in the final five minutes.

Lesson learned: if you're not ready and don't take care of the football, your preseason hype will sink into the quicksand.

Debacle on the Blue Turf, 2009: Punchless Ducks Fall to Boise State, 19-8

Justin Wilcox, now the defensive coordinator at Tennessee, trotted out a fired-up Bronco defense that held Oregon without a first down until midway through the third quarter.

Boise State dominated the line of scrimmage, and frustrated Duck offensive stars Jeremiah Masoli and LeGarrette Blount. Blount was held to -5 yards on eight carries, and Masoli made the wrong reads repeatedly, running and passing, carrying seven times for just fourteen yards and throwing for a mere 121 yards on 27 attempts, with one interception.

The Ducks looked slow and overrated. Boise State looked focused and inspired. Oregon's offensive line, replacing three starters who graduated and advanced to the NFL, was disorganized and ineffective, overwhelmed by the Broncos' pressure and quickness inside. For the game, Oregon managed just six first downs, compared to 22 for BSU. Bronco quarterback Kellen Moore was an efficient 19-29 for 197 yards and a touchdown, with no interceptions. He had the best of Sports Illustrated cover boy Masoli, and the Oregon defense.

Only three Bronco turnovers, two missed field goals and a botched field goal snap kept the score as close as it was. It was a domination and an embarrassment, made infinitely worse when Blount threw his notorious post-game punch. Rightly or wrongly it became the national identity of the Oregon program until Jeremiah Masoli was implicated in the fraternity theft.

Lesson learned: Oregon has reached the level where they get everyone's best shot, and teams define their season by the result of the Oregon game.

Now the hunted, they have to bring their best effort every week to win. The fastest route to being embarrassed is to come in unfocused. Football demands and rewards preparation and disciplined effort. The Ducks lost their cool during and after this game, and they paid for it.

Oregon fans have to wonder also what challenges Wilcox will present in his new role at Tennessee. The Vols open Saturday with Tennessee-Martin, so chances are Wilcox has been scheming for Oregon's spread since spring practice ended. He'll blitz the house against the Ducks rookie quarterback.

Here's hoping Darron Thomas brushes up on his Oregon football history, or the Ducks will be moody and blue in a sea of orange.

Quick Hits From Thursday Night's Games

Used to be a Duck fan wouldn't pay much attention to the national scene, but Oregon has a national profile now, and every game involving a PAC-10 team or a nationally-ranked team has Duck implications. Here are some notes from opening night.

USC 49 Hawaii 36

Defensive geniuses Monte Kiffin and Ed Orgeron were supposed to shape all those highly-touted Trojan studs into a dominating defensive machine but that wasn't in evidence last night. USC gave up 36 points and 588 yards to WAC also-ran Hawaii, exposing some glaring weaknesses in the back seven. Think Nick Foles, Andrew Luck, and Kevin Riley aren't licking their chops thinking about their chance to shred the SC secondary?

The Trojans won, sure, but it wasn't supposed to be a shootout. Matt Barkley is the kind of quarterback who looks like a world-beater when he can sit back without pressure. He'll roll up big numbers in their first four games, all cream puffs: Hawaii, Virginia in the Coliseum, at Minnesota, at Washington State. Then the schedule ramps up with PAC-10 play: hosting Washington, at Stanford, Cal at the Coliseum, a bye week (everybody has a bye the week before Oregon) then home versus the Ducks.

Barkley will make a lot of early season Heisman lists with gaudy numbers, but he's the typical pampered Trojan quarterback, used to a built-in advantage and ready-made glory, operating behind the comfort of a huge offensive line with a stable of five-star tailbacks to hand off to. Things won't be so cushy this season. He'll be pressured. The line is not as deep, and the defense won't afford him the luxury of coasting on a big lead every week. Oregon will bring pressure, and he's not used to that.

Ronald Johnson looks like an emerging star. He had a huge night, with three touchdown catches and an 89-yard punt return. The Rainbows didn't tackle well and looked smallish lining up against SC.

The Trojans will start fast with that schedule. The ESPN guys will be raving about Lane Kiffin and the rediscovered swagger in Los Angeles, but October and November look to be a different story. After a couple of back-to-reality losses in PAC-10 play USC will have nothing to play for and Kiffin will lose this team. Implosion is likely. A thirteen-point win versus Hawaii is not an accomplishment, not for a team that used to win forever. Those days are gone. They've lost their cheating advantage, and their mystique. Matt Barkley, meet Josh Kaddu. Crunch!

Ohio State 45, Marshall 7

This is a typical Ohio State early season game. Like most top-twenty teams they fatten up on Youngstown State-variety competition in the early going. The Big Ten plays an eight-game conference schedule, so the Buckeyes have four home games in September, never leaving the comfort of the Horseshoe until an October 2 date with Illinois. They have this game with Marshall, Ohio and Eastern Michigan, wrapped around a September 11th home game with number-13 Miami.

Every time I see Terrelle Pryor in the highlight package he's soft tossing another zipless flutterball to a wide open receiver with 4.4 speed, or handing off to Brandon Saine going untouched to the end zone for 45. The Buckeyes will be favored in all twelve of their games this season, and have the easiest route of any of the contenders for a date in Glendale. Pryor will get lots of credit he doesn't really deserve. His passing mechanics are woeful.

He had a great game against the Ducks in the Rose Bowl, largely because the Duck defense gave him too many second chances, failing to tackle or properly contest those flutterballs. Casey Matthews dropped a sure interception early in the game. Pryor is a mediocre quarterback. He thrives in a system that keeps him under wraps and protects him with a favorable schedule and a stout defense and a coaching philosophy that takes the air out of the ball. Ohio State stands a good chance of making it to the title game then losing it to a team with equal speed and more aggressiveness, a team that has been tested and challenged during the season. Like Oregon, maybe? We'll see.

Utah 27, no. 15 Pittsburgh 24 (OT)

I don't much like the chicanery of freezing the kicker with a time out just before the snap. The Panther kicker had to endure three chances at a game-tying field goal at the end of the game, a make (negated by a timeout called milliseconds before the snap), a miss (negated by another timeout) and a make (psyche!--no timeout called). I don't think a sixty minute football game should come down to a game of flinchies. Call the timeout, yes, but the rule should be adapted so that the coach has to call it within a certain time frame or prior to the cadence. Feel free to disagree.

Pitt took a big risk scheduling a competent intersectional opponent in the opening week like this, and they'll be rewarded with a free fall from the national rankings. It's a shame, really. The BCS beauty pageant rewards teams for fattening up on directionals, the WAC and Conference USA, and punishes real competition.

Miami opened with Florida A&M and won 45-0. That ain't working. That's the way you do it. Play the guitar on the BCS. Apologies to Mark Knopfler. But no apologies to the current landscape of big-time college football, which rewards teams for avoiding risks. You might say, what about the Ducks, but both the New Mexico and Tennessee games looked far more formidable when they were scheduled. New Mexico was a bowl team five times in seven years under Rocky Long. Tennessee is one of the traditional powers of college football, since fallen on hard times. Oregon's third game, now a potential laugher against FBS cupcake Portland State, was supposed to be Central Michigan, the MAC champions last year, but the Chippewas asked out.

For the Utes, last night's victory was a springboard to a promising season. They start league play in the Mountain West September 11th with a home date versus UNLV, a road game versus the New Mexico Lobos (whom the Ducks will test tomorrow afternoon) and then home versus San Jose State. They're likely to be 4-0 and ranked by the end of September. New quarterback Jordan Wynn looks comfortable in the pocket, and he has sturdy running back Matt Asiata (5'11", 220 pounds) to hand off to. The challenges come later in the year for Utah. In November they have TCU, Notre Dame and Brigham Young on the schedule, the ND game in the shadow of Touchdown Jesus and the golden dome. To get serious consideration for a top-15 ranking Utah has to win at least two of these three pivotal games and sweep the rest of the Mountain West schedule. By beating Pitt they cleared a huge hurdle.

There are too many machinations in college football, too many unnecessary intricacies. It's not just a matter of who beat who, unfortunately. Too much of success in the BCS race comes down to who avoided playing anybody, thus minimizing their risk. There are multiple long term shakeouts afoot, with BYU making a move to go independent and whispers USC or Texas might do so. Utah and Colorado are moving west, though Colorado's defection from the Big Twelve is being delayed.

When it all sorts out and the TV deals are struck, here's hoping what emerges is an alignment that fosters true competition on the field. I envision a 64-team superconference that encompasses all of college football's top teams, split into eight eight-team divisions where true round robins are played, with schedules that feature interesting intersectional matchups in September and genuine competition throughout the country and throughout the year. But that will probably never happen. The current system generates too much money and too much interest, and sweeping reforms make too much sense.

The built-in inequities of East Coast bias and creampuff scheduling make the national race no more than a passing curiosity for Duck fans. It's hard to be excited by the convoluted road map to Glendale. Too much of earning a ticket there has nothing to do with play on the field. Oregon fans have learned to love the purity of the PAC-10 race, where everybody plays everybody and a true champion is crowned. The national stuff is just for conversation.

Besides, this week the Ducks are in the Super Bowl. They play the New Mexico Lobos in the championship of winning the day.