This is What Happens When You Try to Outthink Oregon Coach Chip Kelly

Your brain explodes like a Martian hearing Slim Whitman for the very first time.

In Oregon's quarterback competition, I’ve been an outspoken Costa supporter, but as I follow the reports from various sources I’m convinced of four things: the competition is much closer than I ever thought, Thomas is more ready than I gave him credit for, the Ducks will be formidable no matter who wins the job, and Chip Kelly will make the right decision.

Quack PAC Attack: Three Ducks Who Must Make an Impact in 2010

Some coaching staffs get a lot of credit for developing and coaching up their players, but did any team in college football make a bigger improvement from game 1 to game 4 last season than the Oregon Ducks? People buried them after Boise. After the narrow escape against Purdue in game 2 Canzano wrote he couldn't count six wins on the schedule. I'll be honest: I couldn't either. But in the seven weeks that followed they beat teams ranked 18th, 6th and 4th and won six in a row before getting derailed at Palo Alto. Then they responded with three more critical wins to win the conference by two games.

Central to that improvement was the rapid emergence and sudden impact of five critical players. Talmadge Jackson III stepped in after injuries to WTIII and Willie Glasper. LaMichael James made Duck fans (if not the national media) forget Blount's punch. Kenjon Barner emerged as a weapon in the return game replacing Thurmond, Kenny Rowe established himself as a disruptive pass rusher, and redshirt freshman John Boyett became an immediate force as the impact safety replacing a banged-up TJ Ward.

In addition, the offensive line, a question mark before the season because of heavy losses to graduation, (the Ducks sent three starters to the NFL after 2008) quickly developed the cohesion and communication their job requires and started roadgrading opposing defenses. The Fat Kids Living the Dream produced 232 rushing yards a game while allowing just 13 sacks. Bo Thran, Carson York, Jordan Holmes, Mark Asper and C. E. Kaiser are all back this year, as well as Max Forer, Nick Cody and Darrion Weems off the bench.

In 2010, with an experienced team coming back, Oregon will rely less on dramatic and unexpected contributions from newcomers (although there will certainly be some), and more on veteran players who take their game to the next level. LaMichael James will get his yards, and Kenny Rowe will get his sacks, but the following three players need to perform at a championship level for Oregon to repeat as conference champion.

David Paulsen, Tight End

The 6-4, 241 lb. junior from Auburn, Washington was effective as a second tight end last year, with 11 of his 12 receptions resulting in first downs. But now he's the guy, and that requires him to carry on a long tradition of standout Duck tight ends. He's a smart player who played some quarterback in high school, a good blocker, tough over the middle. Paulsen's sealing blocks at the second level make a critical difference in the Oregon running game, and a reliable receiver who runs disciplined routes gives Costa/Thomas a safe, dependable option to move the chains.

Impact: If Paulsen records 30 catches for 400 yards and completes his blocks, the Duck offense has the balance and productivity it needs to win.

Casey Matthews, Middle Linebacker

His inclusion on this list may be surprising, but Casey Matthews needs to make an even bigger impact in 2010. He's a four-year starter who's made a number of preseason watch lists, but that has as much to do with his pedigree as it does his performance. At times last year Matthews was dominating and a force on the field, particularly versus Utah, but other times it looked like Michael Clay was pushing him off the field. Tied for second last season in tackles at 81, Matthews worked hard this offseason and leaned down to 230 lbs., increasing his vertical jump by 5.5 inches. He told Ken Goe of the Oregon, “I’m leaner than I’ve been and I’m stronger than I’ve been. I feel real good.”

Impact:If Oregon's defense is going to make the jump to the nasty, stifling, punishing, intimidating Gang Green glory of the past, it starts with Matthews. He has to claim the family legacy, and play like an NFL-bound middle linebacker every week. He has to record 90 or more tackles, and he should contribute three picks underneath. His improved anticipation and conditioning should make him a even greater force in the middle, and put him in better position to make plays, tackles, sacks and interceptions.

Bo Thran, Left Tackle

The Ducks will start an inexperienced quarterback, but they return their top nine linemen and all five starters from last year's two-deep. They lost only Charlie Charmichael, who had to give up football because of chronic knee injuries. At left tackle, Bo Thran is the anchor of that line. On pass plays, he'll have Costa/Thomas' back. Honorable Mention All-Pac-10 last season, the 6-5, 281 lb. Thran made both the Lombardi and Outland Trophy watch lists this summer.

Impact: Standout left tackles are among the highest-paid players in the NFL, and the smooth, athletic Thran could become one of those. If Thran achieves 24 key run blocks and 20 pancakes in his senior season, the burden of Oregon's inexperienced starting qb gets infinitely lighter.

Force Feeding the Mayonnaise: Three Reasons Why the Ducks Will Be Better in 2010

The evidence is all around the web. This year the Ducks could have a season as perfect as a pancake-and-bacon breakfast, when a little bit of syrup gets on the bacon. Here are some of the reasons:

Unity and Maturity. Great article in the R-G from Rob Moseley, with reactions from the players on the quarterback battle. We sometimes forget that these are college kids, and their relationships off the field can be a strong factor in team chemistry. On a lesser team, without the character and maturity and focus on winning this group has, a quarterback competition could divide the team in two. There's no hint of that here. Chances are both guys will play this year, and this group is ready to go to war with either one of them.

Multiplicity of Weapons Without Masoli, the thinking was, Oregon's offense won't be as dynamic or difficult to stop. That's why many casual observers downgraded Oregon from national championship contenders to a question mark.

People forget Masoli was a fifth-string quarterback in 2008, a short, stubby guy with an erratic arm. The system made Masoli. It wasn't the other way around. This year, the Ducks have two capable quarterbacks. They may not be ready to be the triggerman Masoli became by the end of his junior year, but consider the buttons they have to push in this offense. Here's a quote from Ken Goe, after observing Friday's practice:

The Ducks split Barner and James wide and then motioned them back to the backfield. They started them in the backfield and motioned them wide. They ran options and fly sweeps. They threw screen passes and sent them deep. They used them in single-back sets and sometimes had them on the field together.

Factor in the talented, speedy newcomers, Seastrunk, Huff and Williams, and the Ducks have a frightening number of ways to stretch and attack a defense. A lot of these are simple, hard to defend, and use the whole field without putting a lot on an inexperienced quarterback's shoulders: drag routes, screens, flares, hitches. Both Costa and Thomas should be more precise and reliable in the passing game than Masoli. Speed kills, and Oregon's inventive offense exploits their advantage in speed.

Good Players Who Get Better Because they Want to Be Great. Mel Kiper says Brandon Bair is the most NFL-ready Duck, and he stands to make a lot of money if he eliminates the facemask and hands-to-the-face penalties that plagued him last year. Those are drive extenders and momentum killers, and with another year of tutelage under Coach Azzinaro, Bair will harness his rangy athleticism to be a disruptive playmaker in the middle. He showed glimpses of that last year, particularly in the Washington game.

Jordan Holmes has dramatically improved the consistency and accuracy of his snaps, and that's a five-play-per-game boost in the efficiency of the Oregon offense. High snaps (and a puny quarterback) threw off the timing of a half dozen plays per game last season, and his improvement will make the whole offense sharper.

Eddie Pleasant is everything you want in an open space defensive player, fast, agile, and a little mean, but when he blitzes, he'll absolutely destroy a few quarterbacks if he just learned a little more control as he comes off the edge. Last season there were several times he whiffed or let the qb slip out of his grasp. With a running start from the safety position and a year to study film Pleasant will emerge as a devastating and dynamic player. He combines the skillsets of Wesley Mallard, Blair Phillips and TJ Ward. One hit from Pleasant can convince you that today will be a very bad day, and tomorrow won't feel good either.

Jeff Maehl brings his former defensive player toughness to the receiver position, and both the qbs have a lot of confidence in him. He's durable and smart with flypaper hands. He reminds me of Fred Biletnikoff. Comparisions are always imperfect, but Maehl has an old school grit that makes him perfect as the third option in the Oregon offense. You can't forget about him. His feet always come down in bounds, and he beats defenders to the ball.

Two Weeks to Go on a Buggy Summer Night

Stuff like this bugs me: Lindy's is on the web with its preseason PAC-10 predictions, and they have OSU winning the conference at 8-1, the Ducks at 7-2, SC 7-2, and Cal 6-3. Arizona, UCLA, and Washington come in at 5-4. They have Stanford at 3-6, far too low for Harbaugh and Luck, one of the best returning quarterbacks in the country and a possible number one draft pick. ASU and Washington State bring up the bottom, as they do in everyone else's forecasts, at 2-7 and 0-9 respectively. A couple of hot seats will get hellishly hot by November. Will Mike Bellotti make a return to coaching next January?

But that isn't the part that bugs me. You can argue several of these picks, and many have. Bob Rickert from the Oregonian Duck Blog points out that Mike Riley has never had a team with less than four losses, and it's hard to see why this Beaver team will be any different. They too have an inexperienced starting quarterback, but their guy has far less on the bench behind him, and far less time to learn on the job. The Beavers start vs. number 7 TCU in Cowboy Stadium, home versus Louisville, then on the road again to number 5 Boise State. They're likely to be 1-2 in September, beat up, discouraged, with the Beaver fans humma humma humming about slow starts and how good the backup quarterback looks; in short, a typical Beaver season start.

Conference play opens with a reprieve: OSU starts with Arizona State at home. But then their first-year starter, a true sophomore with by then four games on his resume, goes to Tucson to play the Wildcats, then on the road to Seattle to lock up with Heisman Trophy candidate Jake Locker and the resurgent(?) Washington Huskies. Then the following week they have Cal for the Beaver homecoming game on October 30.

In November it's at UCLA, home against WSU and USC, then November 27 they travel to Stanford, a very tough road game for them in years past. Andrew Luck will test the secondary that BYU torched for 44 points. The Beavers end their season hosting Oregon on December 4th.

The point is, this schedule doesn't lay out well for OSU. No way they go 8-1 and win the conference. Ryan Katz has to carry a much bigger load in their offense than Oregon's starter will, and he will be tested much earlier in the season. He faces two critical road games early in PAC-10 play. Mike Riley is a good tutor of quarterbacks, but every one of his starters, Anderson, Moore, Moevao, Canfield, have struggled early, and Katz is certain to do so.

8-4 is the upside for the Beavers, and they don't do better than 6-3 in conference play. But that isn't what bugs me. It's way simpler than that.

Lindy picks the conference to go 48-42 against itself. Add it up. The books have to balance, man. Maybe the rosy predictions sell more magazines, but in football there is one fundamental, indisputable fact.

Someone has to win and someone has to lose.

All Dressed Down and Ready to Punch Somebody

Fifteen days till kickoff. LMJ and Barner are full go at practice. They broke out the white game helmets yesterday. Though the Ducks have suffered some nicks and bumps, everyone still seems reasonably healthy, and the quarterbacks have shown progress. John Canzano is trying to cause a stir over a practice scuffle from two years ago. This is big-boy football, John. Maybe your parents never believed in you.

When the heat rises and the bodies get sore and the monotony of fall camp kicks in, tempers flare. People snipe and shove and trash talk. A helmet flies off or an elbow is thrown. Somebody gets chippy and throws a jab. Coaches fly in from the sideline, whistles tweeting urgently. Another fist flies in the melee before the combatants are separated. It's no big deal. It's football. The testosterone flows and proud, agile, angry men play it. They are going to scuffle when the juices flow. In fifteen days they get to play someone wearing a different color jersey, and they can let loose with all that stored aggression and irritation. In another 10 days the coaches will taper off their work and their legs will get fresh. They'll be ready for the arena, the cheers and the blare of the foghorn. This is their year. Leave it to Canzano to try and stir up a non-story from a practice a long while ago. It's practice. Stuff happens. You blow the whistle and move on to the next play. Sometimes a guy or two has to be sent to an early shower. Blount's a hothead, probably has an anti-social streak. There are fifty or eighty guys like him in the Hall of Fame. Think Dick Butkus or Ronnie Lott ever started a fight in training camp? I always thought Hout had it coming. But by now that's an old story too.

This year's Ducks are the story I'm interested in. They seem like a group with good character and a strong focus. There's a good mix of senior leadership and promising newcomers. I have to laugh when I read a preseason forecast from one of the national websites, full of inaccuracies and half-truths. The Sports Network has Diante Jackson as the Ducks' breakout receiver. Jackson is long gone, like Masoli and Blount and a half dozen other problem children.

But Cantu is showing signs of promise, and so are Huff and Hoffman. Hoffman is a tough blocker and Huff has blazing speed. Wide receiver doesn't worry me this year. Maehl seems ready to blossom into a genuine superstar, the tough, gritty receiver like Cristin McLemore or Joe Reitzug, the guy who can always be counted on for a clutch catch. Davis and Tuinei are a year better. Davis is a hard worker. He has guns like a linebacker. Tuinei has the Go-Go-Gadget arms and is tough in traffic. Is Cantu a momma's boy? Maybe it's just a Texas thing, the devotion to their mommas. He definitely shows signs of emerging in practice. And he hasn't punched anybody. But in the words of the immortal Curly the Cowboy, day ain't over yet.

I'm not worried about the wide receivers, particularly because Kelly is so inventive. As the season develops he'll slip Brandon Williams into the slot, creating some severe matchup problems down the seam. There'll be times when Barner or Seastrunk line up on the wing and watch out. Slip them a bubble screen or a shovel pass, something simple, and let the juke and jive and the helpless dives begin. Both are electric in the open field. They can be long gone and sipping Gatorade on the sideline before the band has time to find their trombones.

Yeah, the Ducks are getting ready. They are bristly and irritable and sore. The linebackers dismantled a tackling sled, and Coach Pellum owes them lunch. Another two weeks they'll be devouring the New Mexico backfield. No doubt there'll be a punch or two thrown in practice between then and now, but that's just a tuneup for the main event. This is a smart, well-coached group. They know to play one inch out of control they have to practice at an inch and a half.

Will This Year's Defense Be Nickname Worthy?

The number one rule is, you can't give yourself a nickname, and only a few defenses have ever earned one. The Steel Curtain. The Seven Blocks of Granite. The No Name Defense. The '85 Chicago Bears (well, they didn't get a nickname, but they got a year, a Super Bowl ring and a rap record). Gang Green.

Gang Green was the best defense in Oregon history. In 1994 they led the Ducks to a PAC-10 championship and their first Rose Bowl in 37 years. They were dominating and intimidating. They recorded 30 quarterback sacks and ranked 12th in the country against the rush, allowing just 19 points per game.

It was an attacking, ballhawking, opportunistic defense. Chad Cota, Rich Ruhl and Jeremy Asher were fierce hitters, and O'Berry, Molden and Wheaton, the nickle back, turned and found the ball regularly. They won games with defense, beating USC 22-7 in the Coliseum, Cal 23-7, Arizona 10-9, and Oregon State 17-13 to win the Civil War and the right to go to the Rose Bowl.

There were many big moments and lots of contributors. Derrick Barnes and Reggie Jordan at the outside linebackers. Nose tackle Sallila Malepeai anchored the middle. Free Safety Jeff Sherman recorded 109 tackles, Rich Ruhl 103, and Jeremy Asher 91. Alex Molden, who went on to play nine years in the NFL, broke up 16 passes. In all the team recorded 20 interceptions and allowed just eight touchdown passes. They were stifling and punishing, closed the regular season with six straight conference wins to earn the conference championship. The fans wore tee shirts and carried hand-painted signs: "Gang Green--A Painful Experience."

Nobody expected them to be this good, except maybe Nick Alliotti. The PAC-10 writers picked them to finish seventh in the league. But Alliotti thought of the nickname over the summer playing golf at Lake Tahoe, and had the first tee shirts printed to motivate the defense. The season started slow, a victory over Portland State, with Jordan grappling in the pile for a big fumble recovery; then embarrassing losses to Hawaii and Utah. The defense seemed to jell trouncing Iowa at Autzen 40-18, evening the record at 2-2. Then came the upset over the Trojans, holding them to just one touchdown, and Gang Green was born.

The fans' excitement grew to a whole new level when Kenny Wheaton raced 97 yards with his famous interception to seal an improbable win over Washington. Danny O'Neill and the Oregon offense had driven 98 yards late in the fourth quarter to go ahead 24-20, but Washington quickly answered with a drive of their own. It was agonizing to watch. Another year of disappointment. 1:09 to play and the Huskies had the ball inside the five, with the big tight end and Napoleon Kauffman in the backfield, a time out to burn. First down. They line out wide and Wheaton, a redshirt freshman, remembers that every time he saw this formation in film study the outside receiver ran an out. "I'm going to jump the route," he told himself. "If they run the in this time, I guess I'll just get beat." You know the rest.

The question is, can these Ducks be those Ducks? It's a different era now. Cota was from Ashland, Ruhl from Roseburg, Sherman from North Eugene. Most of the rest were from California, though they got Molden from Colorado Springs and Wheaton from Phoenix, Malepeai from St. Louis High in Hawaii. Now Oregon recruits all over the country and loads the roster with speed to burn.

Match them up group by group. Are Asher, Ruhl, Barnes and Jordan any better than Paysinger, Matthews, Littlejohn, Lokombo, Kaddu, Stuckey and Clay? Kenny Rowe, Brandon Bair, Terrelle Turner, Ricky Heimuli, Dion Jordan, plus blitzers off the edge, can they combine for 30 sacks? Is John Boyette the next Jeff Sherman? Did Chad Cota hit any harder than Eddie Pleasant? This year's cornerbacks are still unsettled, a few of them gifted yet still green, but athletically, could they compete with Molden, O'Berry and Wheaton? The speed and quickness in front of them will make them look better, and Boyette and Pleasant will dislodge a lot of their mistakes, separating timid souls from the ball. Big hits lead to alligator arms, and the collisions in the Oregon secondary will shorten many. One very significant advantage is that this year's team has a huge edge in depth. It is the deepest Oregon defense ever.

Nicknames have to be earned. But by game five, Duck fans may have to search for one. The 2010 defense could be the best ever, good enough to win some games 22-7 or 17-13 if necessary. But they'll have to prove it on the field.

A Season Hanging by a Thumbnail

There's growing sentiment from Fishduck and other veteran observers, Ken Goe among them, that quarterback might not matter as much to this year's Oregon Ducks. John Boyette and Eddie Pleasant might score enough or produce enough turnovers to keep the Ducks in many of their games. The defense could be stifling. Oregon's offense is showing progress and promise, and that's encouraging, because every day they go against that fast, talented group that knows all their plays by heart. Thomas has improved his accuracy, and Costa is moving the team and the chains. He's resourceful back there, looks cool in the pocket, and runs way better than anyone thought. The Fish called him deceptively fast. That's good enough for me. The receivers are improved enough to replace some of Masoli's lost yards, Fish says.

The major worry is Barner's hand. LMJ is a little gimpy and that can get better in a week or two, but a hard cast on the thumb with eighteen days till opening day, that's a concern you can't wish away. In practice Seastrunk seems to fumble every other punt. He's talented, but not ready for 100,000 in Knoxville, not ready for primetime, the bright lights and ESPN, back at his own fifteen with a conference championship on his slender shoulders. They need Barner. He's the counterpunch, the X factor, the element the other guys don't account for. Defenses will be designed to stop LaMichael, not that they can. But Barner is the instant offense and the momentum-changing return, the lightning in a bottle, the quick little guy with game-changing feet to make a big play when it was really needed. He's the season-saver, the guy who stepped up big and shows the big improvement from year 1 to year 2, the extra dimension, the fly in the ointment. Healthy, he could get you Masoli's yards and a few hundred of his own. He's way more talented than James Rodgers, tough and smart.

Not so fast, my friend. Thumb injuries linger. Thumb injuries nag. Thumb injuries heal slow and aggravate every time you hit them again. There's the flinch of pain every time the ball smacks against it, the concern that it will never heal.

A whole season can turn on a little thing like a thumb. They can replace Barner, they can do without him, but it'd be a whole lot better if he were available and healthy. They don't need him to beat New Mexico, necessarily, but it would be a big lift to have both gamebreakers healthy for Tennessee and the long march to Pasadena that follows.

In a season where so much is right and the Ducks are primed for greatness, it would be a shame to have things unravel, beginning with a nagging thumb.