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Wednesday, August 30, 2023

What Oregon fans should look for in Saturday's game against Portland State, and what they should ignore completely

 


What do Tabari Hines, Kano Dillon, Daryle Hawkins, Malachi Lewis, Nate Costa, Brady Leaf, Andiel Brown and A.J. Tuitele all have in common?

They all scored a touchdown in one of the last three games Oregon has played Portland State, games Oregon won 62-14 (2018), 69-0 (2010), and 55-12 (2006).

Hines, Dillon and the rest were all fine athletes. About 230,000 football players graduate high school every year but roughly 1 in 100 make it to a Division I roster, just 2300 a year. Just getting to run through the tunnel in Autzen Stadium is an accomplishment, let alone getting into a game, let alone scoring a touchdown and hearing the cheers and the foghorn blow.

But for a few of those above, it would be the only touchdown of their Oregon careers. It makes you hope they still have the ball.

The point here is not to disparage those players, but merely to illustrate that opening game heroics do not always translate to a big role during the season. Against FCS Portland State this Saturday, Dan Lanning and his staff will likely play nearly everyone in uniform by the end of the fourth quarter. And that's great--it's a reward for those guys who have worked all year to make the team better.

Just know that it's important to take the big plays and touchdowns this Saturday with some perspective. A few guys will do something wonderful that may not reflect their role and prospects for the rest of the long campaign to try and win a conference title.

When he talked to the media last week Bo Nix said, "I came back to win a championship." The writers asked him about his billboards and whether they'd be a distraction. Nix said, "We're going to keep the main thing the main thing, and that's doing our best to win football games.”

In a big blowout win (the most likely result this Saturday) everybody gets a chance. Some of the freshman and reserves might get 30 snaps. But it'd be a mistake to extrapolate those results to the coming weeks in great detail.

What we reliably can do is make some general impressions and look for discipline and development, asking questions like these:

Has the pass rush improved? Are the Ducks able to generate pressure rushing three or four? The Vikings have a mobile quarterback in Dante Chachere who rushed for over 700 yards last season. 

In 2022 the Oregon defense often lost containment and let even plodding pocket passers escape for crushing first downs on third and long. Drake Maye and Michael Penix had some of their best runs of the season leaking out of the backfield, running for chunks of yardage. 

The hope is that this year big, agile defenders like Jordan Burch and Matayo Uiagalelei will be able to peel off blocks and clean up plays like that, wrapping up the scrambler before he can break into the open field. Last year the Ducks lacked a cleanup hitter. With more quickness in the front 7, this should be less of a problem.

The Vikings aren't likely to be much of test in general, but this is an area where they provide one.

Chances are Oregon will rack up big offensive numbers, but a discerning fan will look past those numbers to look for signs of cohesion and discipline on the offensive line. Do they get everybody blocked? Is their presnap communication on point? Do they avoid those drive-killing penalties like false starts, holding, lineman downfield? As quickly as possible they have to gel, learning to avoid the self-inflicted wounds. Next week they're on the road at Texas Tech in front of 60,000+ rabid fans.

A third area of emphasis has to be special teams. Last season Oregon ranked 12th--dead last--in covering punt returns, 11th in defending kick returns, 12th in punting, 10th in punt returns. On 25 returnable kickoffs they allowed opponents 25.2 yards a return, and many of the biggest returns seemed to come at the worst possible time.

Despite all the speed and talent on the roster the Ducks didn't execute well on special teams last season. They surrendered miles of field position and gave opponents too many possessions in favorable starting position. A fumbled punt snap inside their own five triggered Oregon State's historic comeback in the rivalry game last fall, costly the Webfoots a slot in the conference championship game.

If the Ducks want to be a conference champion, that's an area of opportunity. They need more pride and urgency, better consistency and improved execution from these units.

The great thing is, the kickoff team should get a lot of work this weekend. One thing to chart is how many kickoffs they're able to boom into the end zone without a return. That becomes even more important as the season goes on. In Week Zero USC unveiled their new return man, freshman Zachariah Branch, who had a receiving touchdown, a kickoff return for a touchdown and a big punt return, 232 all-purpose yards, a phenomenal debut.

Neutralizing a dynamic player like that takes discipline and good habits: everyone in their lane, good hang time, no missed tackles. It's an area where the old coaching cliche is especially true, "You play the way you practice."

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