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Monday, August 30, 2010

Know Your Enemy: A Closer Look at New Mexico

2009 was a rough year for the New Mexico Lobos. They finished 1-11, 1-7 in the Mountain West, and the most noteworthy thing that happened was that first-year Coach Mike Locksley got suspended for one game and docked ten days pay for punching out his wide receivers coach. Their lone victory of the year came after opening the season with ten straight losses, at home over last-place Colorado State 29-27. The team improved as the season went on but their end-loaded schedule didn't give them much of a break: in November they lost 45-14 to Utah, 24-19 to BYU, beat CSU, then ended the campaign with a 51-10 loss to conference champion TCU.


Year two for Locksley, a former assistant to Ron Zook at Florida and Illinois, and he's been able to bring in one class of his own kids, a group presumably more suited to the pistol offense he tried to install last year. A week ago as fall camp wound down he named redshirt sophomore B.R. Holbrook (photo at left) as the starting quarterback. Holbrook appeared in five games as the back-up last year, 19-34 for 170 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions, despite missing three games with mononucleosis. In a bit of an upset he beat out two of Locksley's recruits to win the job.

Locksley told the Alamogordo Daily News, "B.R. has earned the right to be our starting quarterback. I said when we started camp that the guy who gets the job would be the one who gives us the best chance to win, the one who did the best job taking care of the football and the one who was the most productive." He praised Holbrook for his accuracy, and noted he threw just one interception in fall camp 11-on-11 situations.

Holbrook is 6'3", 195 with a good arm and fair mobility. In the New Mexico version of the spread, the "Pistol" originated by Chris Ault of Nevada and newly installed at UCLA, the quarterback takes the snap about 4 yards behind center. It's a pass-first offense--the Lobos threw 470 times last year, compared to 338 for the Ducks. (The Ducks ran the ball 547 times last year, for 3012 yards and 38 TDs.)

His leading returning receiver is Ty Kirk, 6'2", 180, who caught 36 balls last year for 427 yards and two TDs. Kirk will provide a good test for Oregon's newly-named starting corners: he also competes in track for New Mexico, and qualified for the NCAA regionals with a personal-best mark of 50 feet, 11 inches in the triple jump. The other receivers are largely untested.

The Lobos return a largely veteran offensive line except for the freshman center, and Sophomore Demond Dennis looks to be the starting tailback. 5'9" 196, Dennis had 78 carries and 454 yards last year, 5.5 yards per carry with 3 tds. He started six games as a true freshman despite missing two games with a torn meniscus. New Mexico's website lists him as having a 4.48 40. He wears number one, a number usually assigned to pesky scatbacks and sleek rocket-armed quarterbacks. Last year the run was abandoned in many games because the Lobos trailed early, but they hope to achieve better balance this season.

As a player Mike Locksley was a former defensive player of the year at Towson University as a safety and cornerback, and he is strongly committed to beefing up the New Mexico defense. He brought over two big defensive linemen with him from Illinois, 6'4" 280 Ugo Uzodinma, and 6'2" 285 Reggie Ellis, and added his plum recruit, four-star defensive tackle Calvin Smith from Hialeah, Florida. Smith had a good camp and demonstrated the strength and leverage to play now, and he will be in the rotation against Oregon. These three join DE Johnathan Rainey, who led the team with 9.5 sacks, and junior linebacker Carmen Messina, who led the nation in tackles last year with 163. (John Boyette paced the Ducks with 91, but Oregon has far more defensive playmakers to share the load.) Messina will be busy Saturday.

The secondary is a weak spot. They return both corners from a unit that allowed over 250 yards per game in the pass-happy Mountain West, and both safeties were lost to graduation. The unproven secondary should give Darron Thomas some opportunities to mesh with his receivers in game conditions. Despite good strength and size in the defensive line and an active, forceful presence in Messina at linebacker the Lobos desperately need improvement in their defense.

Wolf tracks:

This is a paycheck game for New Mexico, a game that looked like a much more reasonable matchup when it was scheduled. The Lobos were a bowl team five different times under Rocky Long, the last in 2007, before his unexpected resignation in 2008. Despite being a dynamic recruiter Locksley has had a rocky start off the field in Albuquerque, sued for racial discrimination and assault by a former assistant, and the subject of a sexual harrassment complaint by a former department secretary. With this back story New Mexico has to be another team that is eager to start playing games and put last year as far as possible in the rear view mirror.

Unfortunately they are returning to action against the defending PAC-10 champions, and last season they weren't competitive in their own conference. They are inexperienced, thin and overmatched in this game, on the road in one of the loudest, most high-energy stadiums in college football. Nothing in their resume has prepared them for this. It's a grim test, and quite a sales job for an embattled coach.

Oregon has to ignore all this. No one ever won a game based on predictions, Las Vegas odds, or last year's statistics. The fastest way to lose a game you shouldn't is to walk into the stadium thinking all you have to is show up and trot out behind the Harley. The Oregon players seem very eager to be playing football again, however. Their confidence is grounded in a love of the game, a desire to succeed, and the knowledge that their Coach expects their best effort every day.

The Ducks' real opponent, their real challenge on Saturday, is to prepare and execute, to use this game to get better and jell as a team. Offense, defense and special teams, they have to be sharp and disciplined to get themselves ready for the PAC-10 nine-round slugfest. The goal isn't just beating New Mexico. It's using this game to become better football players, to become the team they are capable of being.

2 comments:

  1. Nice write-up on the Lobos.

    While I expect a fairly easy win, there are some areas they can exploit and make the game close. I expect them to have at least 7 defenders to stop the run and force us to beat them passing with a new QB and untested receivers. That may force us to have our TE blocking more than we like. And, as you pointed out, they are really going to test our young DB's. We'll make a few mistakes, but learn some lessons as well.

    Also, as this is our first game, and at home, I doubt we'll be looking ahead to TN.

    Ducks by 21.

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  2. BP--

    I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the game unfold as you suggest. New Mexico put the ball in the air nearly 40 times a game last season, so John Neal's secondary will get plenty of opportunities to show what they can do.

    I'm sure these Ducks realize even fairly easy wins have to be earned. Every indication is they're eager to get going, and preparing the way they should. A 21-point win might disappoint the pundits and wise guys but I think almost every Duck fan would take it.

    I really appreciate your thoughtful comments. Given your handle, any thoughts on Greg Oden's prospects for coming back and becoming a force in the middle for the red and black?

    Thanks again,

    Dale

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