Last year, the Ducks started with despair, embarrassment and adversity. Within sixty minutes of football they lost their star running back and hard-hitting safety TJ Ward, and suddenly everything they thought they could depend on as strengths seemed like weaknesses. They struggled to win their next two games, and found themselves facing number six Cal with a sputtering offense and multiple questions. You know the rest.
What about this year? Again the Ducks face unanswered questions and apparent adversity, beginning the year with an untested quarterback. They have a lot of returning depth, but can they overcome the loss of the triggerman and catalyst of an offense that has produced 38 points a game and 5500 yards a season for the last two years? Oregon has finished 9-4, 10-3 and 10-3 in the last three seasons, highlighted by a conference championship, a Rose Bowl bid, and victories in the Holiday and Sun Bowls, but none of that will matter on Saturday.
The accomplishments of the past won't make a single tackle or run for a single first down. This is a new year, and a new group. Though many of them were a part of the recent success, they now to take center stage and earn a championship of their own, without Masoli, Will Tukuafu, Ward, or Ed Dickson. For one week they'll have to do it without LaMichael James.
Here are several key things to look for when the 2010 Ducks take the field versus New Mexico this Saturday:
Is Darron Thomas ready for his close-up?
It will be very interesting to see how Chip Kelly starts with Thomas, whether he starts out slow and conservative with the running game to get Darron into the flow of the game, or whether he rolls the dice and goes up top, something bold and confident like a deep ball down the sideline to Jeff Maehl.
Kelly's not one to play it safe. There's a strong likelihood Thomas gets the go-ahead to come out throwing. Don't be late getting in from the tailgate; you could miss a memorable moment, something pivotal in Darron's development. It may be a statement from Chip, "Here's our new quarterback, and here's what he can do."
Either way, the critical thing this Saturday is that Darron shows poise and potential and begins to solidify his position as the starter, win the confidence of his teammates. Look for him to grow more comfortable in the offense and relax in the pocket.
It might be a refreshing change for Duck fans in one way. Jeremiah Masoli was very accomplished in this offense, but a notoriously slow starter. Many times he threw his first pass like a young Randy Johnson, high and hard and too wild to handle. In last year's Civil War a touchless rocket led to an early Beaver possession in the red zone. Watch how Darron starts. Does he have his feet under him, is he playing with calm and awareness?
As a young quarterback in his first start you'd want him to grow more comfortable with every possession. A good debut would be a huge benefit in his development.
The Kenjon Barner Show
In his last two games Kenjon Barner had 193 all-purpose yards versus Oregon State, and he followed that up with 227 yards in the Rose Bowl. For the New Mexico game, with LaMichael James suspended and Barner called upon to take the majority of the snaps at tailback, besides returning kickoffs and punts, he could have a stadium record day. Barner is fast and shifty and seldom wastes a cut--he finds a seam or creates one and gets upfield. Running backs Coach Gary Campbell does a tremendous job of teaching his talented stars. Many young runners in other programs suffer from "juke-itis" but Campbell's pupils learn early to make one good cut and go, to trust their speed and take the best advantage of the blocks in front of them.
Barner is exciting to watch, and he should shred the Lobos. The only question is whether he plays more than a couple of quarters in a one-sided game.
Look for Kenjon to make a statement early, maybe even with the opening kickoff, first Lobo punt or his first carry from scrimmage. On a day his teammate James is sidelined, and another teammate Thomas is making his first start at quarterback, Barner is the type of athlete to assert himself with a big play that ignites the offense, and he could have several of them before his day is over. This could be a coming out party for a dynamic player who's expected to have a much bigger role in the offense this year.
Veterans should play like veterans.
As the season progresses the Ducks may reach a point where their new quarterback has learned enough to take a game in his hands, but at the beginning of this young season this game is in the hands, shoulders, backs, and strong legs of his veteran offensive line.
Bo Thran, Carson York, Jordan Holmes, C.E. Kaiser and Mark Asper accounted for 63 of 65 possible starts on the offensive line last year, and they paved the way for 3012 yards rushing and 38 touchdowns while doing so.
Against an undermanned opponent, these five have to assert themselves on Saturday and push the pile forward, create a new line of scrimmage five and seven yards downfield for Barner, Alston and freshman Dontae Williams. They have the talent and experience to dictate this game and establish dominance, and that's exactly what they must do. Look for these guys to be precise, cohesive and focused. If they're not, Steve Greatwood will make them wish they had been when practice reconvenes on Monday.
How deep is the ocean?
In a game like this, against a sacrificial lamb of an opponent, the point is not running up a particular score or scoring a lot of style points, The measure of success will be in the preparation and tempo and focus the Ducks achieve. If they take care of business, Kelly and his coaching staff will get the invaluable opportunity to look at a lot of kids in a game situation, and the players will benefit from the experience and the opportunity to show what they can do. Players like Daryle Hawkins, Cliff Harris and Rickie Heimuli, talented athletes who are further down the depth chart, will get a chance to make an impression. There is no substitute for live snaps in game conditions, and no greater reward than hearing your name called in Autzen stadium by the booming voice of Don Essig. In the words of Bill Parcells, "this is why you lift all them weights." Now go play football.
Pay close attention to the rotations at cornerback and defensive line. Terrell Turner, Dion Jordan, Zac Clark, Wade Keliikipi and Taylor Hart have shown progress and promise during spring football and fall camp, but will they make plays in live situations? The improvement in practice has to show itself on the turf at Autzen, or Oregon's defense won't reach its potential. A fierce, attacking defensive line makes the entire defense better. It's a huge difference maker in the passing game, on those third-and-long conversions Duck fans find so infuriating. This could be a stifling, dominating defense, but only if the defensive linemen, and in particular the interior defensive linemen, play strong and tough and sustain it.
While I fully expect a Duck victory, I have three concerns:
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2) Barner injury. I think this would be a huge blow to the team with James out.
3) Inexperience at safety and cornerback. The Lobos like to throw and younger cornerbacks have a tendency to play too far off and this could lead to a few TD's.