Stuff like this bugs me: Lindy's is on the web with its preseason PAC-10 predictions, and they have OSU winning the conference at 8-1, the Ducks at 7-2, SC 7-2, and Cal 6-3. Arizona, UCLA, and Washington come in at 5-4. They have Stanford at 3-6, far too low for Harbaugh and Luck, one of the best returning quarterbacks in the country and a possible number one draft pick. ASU and Washington State bring up the bottom, as they do in everyone else's forecasts, at 2-7 and 0-9 respectively. A couple of hot seats will get hellishly hot by November. Will Mike Bellotti make a return to coaching next January?
But that isn't the part that bugs me. You can argue several of these picks, and many have. Bob Rickert from the Oregonian Duck Blog points out that Mike Riley has never had a team with less than four losses, and it's hard to see why this Beaver team will be any different. They too have an inexperienced starting quarterback, but their guy has far less on the bench behind him, and far less time to learn on the job. The Beavers start vs. number 7 TCU in Cowboy Stadium, home versus Louisville, then on the road again to number 5 Boise State. They're likely to be 1-2 in September, beat up, discouraged, with the Beaver fans humma humma humming about slow starts and how good the backup quarterback looks; in short, a typical Beaver season start.
Conference play opens with a reprieve: OSU starts with Arizona State at home. But then their first-year starter, a true sophomore with by then four games on his resume, goes to Tucson to play the Wildcats, then on the road to Seattle to lock up with Heisman Trophy candidate Jake Locker and the resurgent(?) Washington Huskies. Then the following week they have Cal for the Beaver homecoming game on October 30.
In November it's at UCLA, home against WSU and USC, then November 27 they travel to Stanford, a very tough road game for them in years past. Andrew Luck will test the secondary that BYU torched for 44 points. The Beavers end their season hosting Oregon on December 4th.
The point is, this schedule doesn't lay out well for OSU. No way they go 8-1 and win the conference. Ryan Katz has to carry a much bigger load in their offense than Oregon's starter will, and he will be tested much earlier in the season. He faces two critical road games early in PAC-10 play. Mike Riley is a good tutor of quarterbacks, but every one of his starters, Anderson, Moore, Moevao, Canfield, have struggled early, and Katz is certain to do so.
8-4 is the upside for the Beavers, and they don't do better than 6-3 in conference play. But that isn't what bugs me. It's way simpler than that.
Lindy picks the conference to go 48-42 against itself. Add it up. The books have to balance, man. Maybe the rosy predictions sell more magazines, but in football there is one fundamental, indisputable fact.
Someone has to win and someone has to lose.
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