Not every news source is as coldly analytical and fiercely objective as The Duck Stops Here. Some rely on half-truths, lazy assertions, and unexamined assumptions. In another week there'll be a flood of it, conventional wisdom and cliches, especially in the standing-up-in-the-booth segment just before kickoff, or any time Jesse Palmer or Brock Huard start talking. To make it through the 100-day information marathon that is a college football regular season, a well-informed football fan has to adapt the advice Ernest Hemingway once gave a young writer. You have to develop a clean, well-insulated, built-in, shockproof crap detector.
Here are three of the lazy-eye arguments from the PAC-10 that don't pass careful examination:
Myth 1: You can't compete in the PAC-10 without an experienced quarterback.
This myth was cracked last season, when first-year starters Nick Foles, Andrew Luck, and Matt Barkley went a combined 17-10 in conference play, finishing second, second, and third respectively. People forget Foles and Arizona came within one errant snap of winning the conference.
Truth is, young, talented quarterbacks are more ready than ever before to be starters in major college football. They are identified and groomed from the time they're thirteen with summer passing leagues, specialty quarterback camps and private coaches, and many of them are playing in sophisticated offenses in high school. They come to campus knowing that the starter ahead of them may leave early for the NFL, and many look for assurances during recruiting that they'll get a chance to compete to play early, because they have NFL aspirations as well.
This year, the Oregon Ducks will likely explode this myth like a barbeque propane tank launched through the roof of a garage. They'll have a first-year starter, and they're going to compete for a national title. Why? Because I said so, and because they are blessed with the perfect recipe for success in their situation.
For a deep, talented team with a few critical question marks, the schedule sets up perfectly, with a soft landing early, the first conference tests at home, and their stretch of crucial games slated for later in the season. They'll have to time to jell, sort out the questions at defensive tackle and cornerback, and the new qb will have time to get comfortable in the offense. By the time the Ducks have to travel to the Coliseum to meet USC in a season-defining road contest in game eight, barring injury, Oregon's new starter will no longer be an inexperienced quarterback.
But even more important than the schedule are the other ingredients. The guy who replaces Jeremiah Masoli inherits the three irreplaceable elements of quarterback success: a 1500-yard rusher, a veteran offensive line, and a stout defense. A host of quarterbacks have won national titles and Heisman trophies with this kind of firepower. Troy Smith and Ken Dorsey were not great quarterbacks, but they probably still dated the prettiest girl on campus. It's easy to look good when you are driving a gleaming green Ferrari.
Myth 2: Quizz Rodgers is the best back in the PAC-10.
There's a lot to like about Quizz Rodgers. He's tough, hard-working, runs hard, never fumbles, and catches the ball well out of the backfield. He lets his play do the talking and speaks modestly, unfailingly shares credit with his teammates. But he's not the best back in the PAC-10, for a very overlooked reason.
Throughout his career, with just a couple of exceptions, Jacquizz Rodgers has had his best games against the worst competition, and his worst games against the best competition.
In 2009 Oregon held Quizz to 64 yards, Brigham Young 63, California 67, Cincinnati 73, Arizona, 85. He ran wild on Washington State, UNLV, and Portland State, racking up 434 yards and over a six-yard per carry average, the only teams he ran against for more than six yards per carry.
In their head-to-head battle LaMichael James ran for 166 yards. Despite not becoming the full-time starter until game 3, he amassed 1546 yards. As a redshirt freshman he established himself as one of the most electrifying breakaway running threats in the country, with nine carries of 30 yards or more and four over 50 yards, while leading the nation with 21 carries in excess of 20 yards. His best game? Halloween night on national tv versus number four USC, 183 yards and a 7.6-yard average. His worst? Against Washington State, when he sat out most of the second half in a blowout, with 81 yards and two touchdowns, and the Rose Bowl versus the other OSU, when he missed a big chunk of the second half with a shoulder injury.
What's most impressive about James is, he is going to be better in 2010. He's stronger and faster, and has a better understanding of how and when to trust his speed. An improved and more consistent passing game will open more running lanes for him, and the emergence of running mates Barner and Seastrunk will give defenses more to account for. What's equally impressive is knack for created runs, making something out of nothing based on sheer ability, which you can witness here and here.
Jaquizz Rodgers can't do that, not that way. He is a stat accumulator, a workhorse, a very good back in a system that features him relentlessly. LaMichael James has the flair and artistry and brilliance of a great, memorable player, a Barry Sanders, a Gale Sayers. It's a difference they can't appreciate at The Little School That Could. Remember, you can't spell Sun Bowl without O-S-U. You can't spell Las Vegas Bowl without O-S.
Myth 3: The PAC-10 is a soft conference, plays a brand of football that is inferior to the SEC or Big-10
Let's learn from pictures.
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