Oregon head coach Dan Lanning is using his Recruiting Jedi Mind Tricks on the rest of the PAC-12, mesmerizing them with his fingers as he says in a soothing voice, "These aren't the Ducks you're looking for."
It's pretty fascinating to watch it at work. Right now for 2024 Lanning and the Ducks have the #5 class in the nation with 16 recruits, 11 of them 4-stars. Washington currently has one commit, a four-star.
With 27 weeks until Signing Day June represents a huge month for on-campus visits. Players come with their families, tour the practice facility and weight rooms and study labs; it's a very big deal in this world.
Websites like this one talk a lot about stars, because it's a handy way to measure talent and potential. Skeptics point to this walk-on or 2-star or unknown gem and say, "Marcus Mariota was a 3-star" but that's a problem with sample size: there are about 200,000+ senior high school football players in the country. In a given class, about 20 become consensus 5-star prospects. That's rare talent.
Over time the rating system has proven to be remarkably accurate, partly because the testing and evaluation at camps and clinics has become increasingly sophisticated.
Odds of Becoming an All-American:
5–Star: 1 in 4.
Top 100: 1 in 6.
4–Star: 1 in 16.
3–Star: 1 in 56.
2–Star: 1 in 127.
All FBS Signees: 1 in 45
It takes talent to win. In most cases it emerges early.
Dan Lanning and his staff have elevated Oregon to a new stratosphere in the recruiting wars. The Ducks are dueling Alabama, Georgia, and Ohio State for the most-coveted high school players in the nation, four and five-star kids with tremendous potential. Five-star prospects become All-Americans (and first-round draft choices) at a much higher rate than their peers.
In the playoff era only one team has ever won a national championship with less than 50% blue-chip players. (Blue-chips are players rated four and five-stars.) The Blue-Chip Ratio is a formula developed by Bud Elliott of 247Sports.
🔷🔷 It's Blue-Chip Ratio Day!@BudElliott3's yearly analysis of the college football teams who can *actually* win a national championship.
— 247Sports (@247Sports) June 6, 2023
Here's 2023's exclusive list: https://t.co/eWJ884JaE7 pic.twitter.com/hIrP3MQ65h
Of course, some of those blue-chip recruits bust out. The adjustment to college is a challenge to anyone, football player or not. A few five-star kids lose interest in the game or find they don't really like it all that much. Away from the watchful eyes of their parents and trainers they get distracted. The physical advantages they had in high school become narrower: they can't coast on the size and speed that allowed them to dominate in their hometown league.
But the biggest danger for the highly touted, gifted players at the top is that some fall in love with the perks of fame rather than the process. Watching these guys, you get the feeling their plan is to flash enough of their talent to get noticed, as if they're saving themselves for the pros.
Part of a coach's job is to not only evaluate the film and the physical skills, but to ask the right questions and assess a player's character. It's important to identify the ones who truly love football and want to succeed at the level they're at. The goal at Oregon is to win the school's first national championship while helping players reach their full potential.
To do anything less than your best is to sacrifice the gift.
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