How many wins for Oregon in 2023?

Oregon’s record in 2023 will be ___.

Fill in the blank. pic.twitter.com/RIZdH1cMOE

— Big Game Boomer (@BigGameBoomer) June 25, 2023

As always, everything hinges on the health of Bo Nix. If Nix goes down for a stretch of games, particularly that critical stretch starting in mid-October, chances are it will be another disappointing year like Dennis Dixon in 2007, Vernon Adams in 2015, or Justin Herbert in 2017. The dropoff to the number two guy is just too great.

That's true for everybody in the conference except Oregon State. The Beavers rely more on their running game and coming out of spring they have about three quarterbacks who are about equal. Ben Gulbranson started 8 games last year while the team went 7-1-- he didn't exactly win them, but a strong running game, a good defense and favorable close-game luck resulted in the best OSU season since 2000. Gulbranson's getting competition from D.J. Uiagalalei (Matayo's brother) and dual-threat freshman Aidan Chiles.

Vegas sets the over/under for the Ducks at 9.5 wins, same as Washington, just below USC, the preseason favorite to win the league. Part of the difficulty in the PAC-12 is that the league typically cannibalizes itself: everybody plays 9 conference games with one or two tough road games in November, including a road trip in Week 12 when SEC teams are hosting Alcorn State or Furman. 

This season, the Ducks are at Utah and at Arizona State in November. In so many seasons, that's where the heartbreak has come. It's a grind. You get a few people hurt and the pressure mounts, the team comes in flat or has a shaky first half and it all equals that "slip-up" game that undoes a run to the playoffs. 

Check Social Media and the fans at UW, Utah, USC and OSU are all pretty confident expecting this year to turn out just like last year and their team to rocket to the top of the heap, which is exactly how fans should feel in the summer leading up to a new season. Of these, you'd expect Washington and Oregon State to fall back a little bit. Neither program did enough in the portal and recruiting to keep up. The Dawgs were 5-1 in close games last year and in 2023 the schedule is harder: in November they're at USC, host Utah and travel to Oregon State. The Beavers lost most of their secondary plus inside linebacker Omar Speights, who transferred to LSU.

Success creates its own kind of pressure. If you come into November 8-0 or 7-1, every week the attention and expectation ratchet up. Fans of a top six team start scoreboard-watching and arguing scenarios, who's playing who, strength of schedule, the committee, all that stuff. The talk becomes distracting. The only game you can win is the one directly in front of you. It can be lost, too, looking ahead or behind.

Remember Tyler Shough? He's now the starting quarterback at Texas Tech, Oregon's opponent in Week Two. It's a sneaky-tough road game early in the year. The Red Raiders are a Top 25 team, 8-5 last year with a 42-25 win over Ole Miss in the Texas Bowl. They were 12th in the nation in passing offense at 302 yards per game.

It's a game Oregon should win but they'll travel to Lubbock for a night game in front of a raucous capacity crowd with a rebuilt secondary and a revamped offensive line, two areas where communication and every-down consistency make all the difference.

They get past that one, there's a reasonable chance they'll start the season 5-0 going into the bye and the October 14th road trip to Seattle, the revenge game against Michael Penix and the Huskies. By then the o-line and secondary will have had time to gel.

It's interesting to note that the Ducks have just six players left from Mario Cristobal's 2021 recruiting class:

QB Ty Thompson

OL Jackson Powers-Johnson

WR Troy Franklin

TE Terrance Ferguson

S Daymon David

LB Jeffrey Bassa

Six pretty good ones, but that's it. Everyone else has given up football or moved on in the transfer portal. This is Dan Lanning's team now and he's remade it with SEC strength and speed. In particular the defense should be markedly better, but there are lingering questions about whether Tosh Lupoi has the coaching chops to craft a top-15 defense, which is what you'd need to win the conference or become a playoff team, where Oregon fans set the bar.

The boys are back in town 😤#GoDucks pic.twitter.com/WlFPT135w9

— Oregon Football (@oregonfootball) June 21, 2023

It's also interesting that in Chip Kelly's second year and Mark Helfrich's second year, the Ducks made it to the national championship. Even though that was partly coincidence, I like the depth, preparation and culture on this team and I think they break through. Taking a pencil to the 2023 schedule, I'm taking the over. 11 wins and a December trip to Las Vegas with a shot at the playoff or an NY6 bowl.

But as always, everything hinges on the health of Bo Nix.