Scouting the Bears, Cautioning the Ducks

9-0, and you hope the Ducks aren't lulled to complacency with how easy it's been. So far they've been dominant and shaken off adversity. They've overcome their struggles and stumbles, righted the day with a burst of brilliance and a frenzy of energy, overwhelming opponents with their pace. They've had the athleticism to outshine teams, the will to discourage them, coming up with flurries of big plays at just the right time, leaving teams beaten, their eyes glazed over by the relentless pressure.

Oregon has always had the answer. They were faster and smarter. They didn't feel pressure because they knew what they were doing. They won the day.

But college football isn't always easy or logical. Games aren't always one by the best team, the most talented team, or the one with the biggest rep and the most to gain. There was no logical reason for Texas to beat Nebraska. Oregon State shouldn't have tumbled Arizona in Tucson. South Carolina had no business rolling the Crimson Tide. But they did. Teams of destiny faced days of ruin, because they had a day they were a little sloppy or a step slow. A day when their heart wasn't in it and their execution wasn't quite as sharp. Michigan State rose to unprecedented heights, their greatest season since Duffy Daugherty in the mid-60's. They went to Iowa and got clubbed, mired in quicksand, pummeled 37-6. The Spartans are still having a wonderful season, but they're finished for the big prize. It could happen to the Ducks in Berkeley.

All it takes for a so-so team to beat a great one is for the great one to have an inattentive day, and the so-so team to play a little over their heads, to find a rhythm they don't normally have. The Bears have plenty of talent. Year after year they recruit a higher touted class than the Ducks. They have stars. They have fast athletes who beat Oregon players in high school. They are playing in the comfort of home. Memorial Stadium holds 71,000, and most will be in blue and yellow, loud and energetic and hopeful, creating a wave for the home team to ride. The Ducks have to break it or be swept under.

Cal is an enigma as they often are, dominant at home, inept on the road. The Ducks could be lulled to sleep by their 5-4 record, by the trouble they had with lowly Washington State, or by the way they were shredded and exposed by Nevada and Oregon State and USC. But they played Arizona to a standstill, holding them scoreless in the first half before losing 10-9. In their own house they've been brilliant, winning 52-3 over lower-division Davis, 52-7 over inept and disorganized Colorado, 35-7 against UCLA, then 50-17 over Arizona State, a team that Oregon struggled with. Those are Oregon numbers. Those are better than Oregon numbers.

The Bears defense is a real threat, fast and hard-hitting. They've shut out four opponents in the first half. They're 12th in the country and first in the PAC-10. They've held three opponents to under 200 total yards, Davis, which is to be expected, UCLA, and Washington State. Jeff Tuel passed Oregon silly, 25-40 for 245 yards. The Bears destroyed him, 9-25 for 92, with six sacks.

Jeff Tedford's team has playmakers and speed merchants. It has innovative coaches and clever schemes. Against the Cougars they fielded three defensive ends and five and six defensive backs, frustrating and overwhelming the Cougs beleaguered offensive line. WSU couldn't get untracked. Wide receiver Marvin Jones got loose for 101 yards on play action passes, one for 50 yards. Their new quarterback is big and tall and can throw deep. They suck you in with elusive Shane Vereen running inside and out, then throw over the top. Keenan Allen couldn't play last week but he's ready now. Jeremy Ross sprung free for 27 yards and a touchdown on an end around play, then dug and fought for a first down late in the fourth quarter, 21 yards on a middle screen for a first down on third and 20, dragging six Cougars over the first down line, pushed forward in a scrum. The Bears found inspiration on the road in Martin Stadium. They found heart and the will to win.

They could surprise the Ducks in Strawberry Canyon. It's their house, and Oregon will be relegated to a cramped, antiquated locker room with a twisting staircase. The climb takes the breath out of you for a while. The noise of the crowd hits you like a blast of energy in the face. An early turnover, a couple of lapses of attention, a breakdown in coverage, some missed tackles, and suddenly the dream season is punched in the mouth by cold reality: everyone wants to win. And everyone wants a shot at number one.

There's enough talent on the Cal sideline and in the Cal coaching box to undo the Ducks' dream season. All it takes is a little complacency, a dullness, a lazy presumption that we can turn it on in the third quarter like we always do and they'll fold. They might not. They might be fired up by all the reports that say they're not as good, that Oregon is this unbeatable juggernaut with the most talent and the fastest players, that they can't possibly keep up or withstand the tempo. They might be inspired to prove they are better than their worst days. They could get a few breaks, take advantage of a couple of Oregon's notorious self-inflicted wounds, and start believing they are just as good.

Because on any given day, they could be. All it takes is an 80% effort on a day everything is going their way.

The Bear Facts:

Cal has won the last three times Oregon has come to Berkeley. They were 4-5 in the series before last year's 42-3 drubbing at Autzen.

Jeff Tedford is 4-4 lifetime against Oregon, where he was offensive coordinator from 1998-2001, four of Oregon's best seasons prior to the Chip Kelly era. The Bears are one game from earning their eighth straight bowl game, a school record, having gone to a bowl in every year of Tedford's coaching tenure except the first. Overall, Tedford is 72-39 at Cal.

Weather is forecast to be sunny with a 0% chance of rain, high 67, low of 52. The Ducks should avoid the monsoon that undid them in 2008, Matt Evensen kicking out of a lake, Jairus Byrd muffing a punt inside the ten.

The Bears average 30 points per game, but 47.3 at home.

The Cal defensive ends had a huge game against WSU. Senior Cameron Jones led all tacklers with 12, including 1.5 sacks and a forced fumble. Trevor Guyton moved inside to nose tackle and had 2.5 sacks and 7 tackles. Look for Cal to counter Oregon's spread attack by putting speed on the field, much as they did against the Cougs, three defensive ends, five and six defensive backs. They'll want to stunt and swarm laterally, fly to the ball the way they did against Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart in 2006.

New quarterback Brock Mansion is more mobile than he looks at 6-5, 232. He had five carries for 25 net yards last week despite two sacks, breaking free for a big gain after a fake to Vereen inside. He threw well downfield but the Bears were plagued by drops. Both WR Marvin Jones and tight end Anthony Miller were wide open on long passes off play action and dropped the ball, supressing Mansion's stats.

Cal leads the PAC 10 in total defense, 12th in the FBS at 299.6 yards per game. They are also first in the conference and 17th in the nation in pass defense, 179.7 per game, and 1st in the league, 5th in the country in sacks, 3.1 per game.

In the 2008 quagmire game Cal held Oregon to 84 yards net passing and 4-18 on 3rd downs. Masoli was dismal, and so were the Ducks.

Tailback Shane Vereen is one of the nation's leading scorers, accounting for 15 touchdowns and 90 points, rushing this season for 167 carries for 886 yards, a 5.3-yard average. A junior, he had 952 yards last year and 715 as a freshman, carrying on what has become an impressive tradition of standout tailbacks at Cal. He's a cinch to be a 1,000 rusher this season, and would be motivated to go over that mark against the Ducks. He's gone over a 100 yards four times this season, including 198 against Nevada on 19 carries. In that game he had touchdown runs of 59 and 50 yards, a LaMichael James-like performance, but in the second half Tedford stopped getting him the ball as the score mounted in a shocking 52-31 loss that was the early low point in a roller coaster year. Vereen has 27 rushing touchdowns in his career.

Cal held Cougar wide receiver Jeff Karstetter to one catch for 7 yards, and they'll probably try to apply a similar bracket coverage to Oregon's Jeff Maehl, who is hampered this week in practice by an arm injury.

Last week, talented wideout Keenan Allen tweaked a knee in pregame warmups and couldn't go, but he's practicing and will be ready for UO.

Senior linebacker Mike Mohamed has 31 career tackles in three games against Oregon. He broke a thumb in the loss to Oregon State two weeks ago and that is still in a cast, but he'll play. He's second on the team in tackles with 53. Junior linebacker D.J. Holt (#3) leads all tacklers with 57. He's 6-1, 250, big and very mobile. Senior safety Chris Conte (#17) plays the John Boyett role in the Bears' defense. He has 51 tackles, 2 pass break ups and a forced fumble.