Week 11 Preducktion: Oregon at Cal

Lots of ways to figure this one, or misfigure it. Oregon hasn't won in Berkeley since 2001, and Cal is undefeated at home. The Vegas line varies between 19 and 20. The Bears are starting a second string quarterback with one career start, but that might not be a net gain for the Ducks. Kevin Riley never played well against the schools from his home state, and Brock Mansion might have a bigger arm and a bigger upside, throwing play action passes to Cal's young, fast receivers, Marvin Jones, Jeremy Ross and Keenan Allen.

The play action pass is the bugaboo. If Oregon's defense has had an Achilles heel during the Nick Alliotti era, it's the play action pass. Remember Boise State in 2008? Before Darron Thomas almost pulled that one out of the fire, Kellen Moore passed Oregon silly with play action fakes, one time simulating a fumble, straightening up and calmly tossing a touchdown to a wide open tight end. Most years, other than the Olshansky-Ngata glory days, Oregon has had an undersized defensive line, so the Duck linebackers and secondary are taught to crash hard to defend the run, and safeties from Eddie Pleasant to TJ Ward to Keith Lewis have been susceptible to the big ball fake for a occasional big gain over the top. One year Arizona tight end Rob Gronkowski got loose for twelve catches and a zillion yards, most of them on play action fakes.

When you have a dangerous jitterbug running back like Shane Vereen, it's easy to sell the play action. John Boyett, Eddie Pleasant, Cliff Harris and Talmadge Jackson III have to make the right reads and keep those fleet receivers where they can find them. It would be nice too if they could shake inexperienced starter Mansion's confidence with a couple of early picks. The Ducks forced no turnovers against Washington, and you hope it isn't a second half trend.

Cal seems uniquely qualified to slow the Oregon offense. They have fast, agile linebackers and can field an athletic defense, tweaked to match Oregon's speed. Against WSU last week they put three defensive ends on the field for much of the game and five and six defensive backs. Cal doesn't have quite as much talent as USC, but they have more depth. This week they've done the usual thing of increasing their practice tempo to prepare for the Ducks' no huddle spread, but it's hard to match in a week what Oregon has built in three years of conditioning and practice.

Chip Kelly's team has met every challenge this year. They've faced hostile crowds and headhunting linebackers and big-armed quarterbacks. They've trailed by three touchdowns and overcome sluggish starts, brought revenge-minded rivals to their knees with fatigue, confusion and defeated eyes.

The main thing the Ducks have to watch out for at Cal is themselves. They can't give Cal hope with a sluggish start and self-inflicted wounds. They can't let fumbles and penalties become a pattern. They are three games from a perfect season and the national championship game. In Darron Thomas' words, they have to clean it up.

At this point it's a simple formula: play hard, stay healthy, take care of the football, and get another conference victory on the road. Chip Kelly insists he isn't a genius, but he is a master at attending to essential details. The Ducks are focused. They win handily over a Cal team that can't keep pace in the second half.

Oregon 45, Cal 23.