In the Quirky World of the BCS, Even Early Perceptions Matter--a lot

For now the BCS rules the world of college football, and perceptions and expectations matter fiercely. True, this season Auburn vaulted from number 22 to a championship, but think how long Alabama remained within striking distance of the title even after one, two, and then three losses. Like it or not, starting high helps you finish higher, particularly here in the West, where it's harder to get attention in the first place.

The way-too-early polls are out, and it's good news for the Ducks. They are a solid, unmistakable blip on the national radar:

Mark Schlabach, ESPN

1. Oklahoma
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. LSU
5. Boise State

Andy Staples, Sports Illustrated.com

1. Oklahoma
2. Oregon
3. LSU
4. Alabama
5. Stanford

Among the other contenders, Oklahoma looks formidable as a number one pick. They return quarterback Landry Jones, four starters on the offensive line, and all-world receiver Ryan Broyles. Jones threw for 4718 yards and 38 touchdowns last season, and Broyles caught an eye-popping 131 passes for 1622 yards and 14 touchdowns. The Sooners do have to replace leading rusher DeMarco Murray and both starting safeties, but they are deep in speed and talent.

The Sooners' schedule is favorable for a title run. They open at Florida State, followed by Ball State and Tulsa at home. They play the Longhorns in Dallas and travel to Oklahoma State at the end of the year. With only a few bullets to dodge and a loaded roster, Oklahoma is a certain favorite nationally.

LSU, Oregon's opening game opponent next fall, loses offensive coordinator Gary Crowton and two early entrants to the NFL draft in star running back Stevan Ridley and Jim Thorpe award winner Patrick Peterson. They return 16 starters but face a looming quarterback controversy in spring drills, between inconsistent returnee Jordan Jefferson and junior college transfer Zach Mettenberger. ESPN's Mike Bellotti picked the Tigers as his early frontrunners for the national title on yesterday's edition of "College Football Live," noting that the Tigers have averaged 10 wins for the last 10 years.

Their schedule includes road games against Alabama and Missippi State, as well as the pivotal cross sectional confrontation with the Ducks.

Out West, Stanford is hard to figure. They just hired offensive coordinator David Shaw to replace Jim Harbaugh, and they got a huge boost when Andrew Luck elected to pass up NFL millions. The offensive line has to replace four starters, and Luck really doesn't have an elite corps of receivers. But the Cardinal have enjoyed three straight solid recruiting years during the Harbaugh tenure. They've built a identity as a physical, tough football team, and they're coming off a convincing win in the Orange Bowl over Virginia Tech.

In 2011 Stanford has Oregon, Cal and Notre Dame to end the season, all at home. They have a road game at USC on October 29, but the rest of the schedule is very manageable. It sets up well for a PAC-10 title run and a bid for another BCS bowl. Luck has to be the Heisman trophy favorite on everyone's list.