Is LSU a Must-Win Game?

Honks, he-men, quipsters, drunken revelers, sardonic wags and Duck football freaks that they are, the guys and Duck girls of Addicted to Quack are already in a lively debate about the importance next season's opener against LSU in Dallas. Poster David Piper contends that the matchup with Les Miles' Tigers is a must-win game:

I'm already talking the LSU game. I want this nasty taste out of my mouth so much right now. And yet, there is a very realistic possibility we lose that game. And if we lose to an SEC team again I'm just going to go out of my mind. Shortly thereafter, I was talking with a coworker about still being angry and bitter, and he told me "you care more than the players do."

He argues that Oregon needs to win to dispel the notion they can't win against the best competition, that losing BCS games two years in a row has given too much rise to the quick dismissals and superficial appraisals of the Ducks as a nice little team from the Northwest with the gimmicky offense and flashy uniforms, a team that can't win the big one.

The thought of losing to another big-time school, particularly from the SEC, is more than my battered imagination can take after Monday night.

Fans are in different camps after the loss. Some take the long view and say we'll be back; others take the long look back and say, think how far we've come since the suffering, Toilet Bowls and 3-8, nearly getting booted out of the league. Still others feel a creeping fatalism after a squandered opportunity, knowing the window is narrow and success is elusive, that getting back isn't nearly as certain as the inevitablity of eventually falling away. Oregon will have down years again. Any team is a couple of key injuries and a coaching defection away from misery.

Yet the immediate future is bright. LaMichael James, Darron Thomas and Cliff Harris, all with two years eligibility, form the nucleus of a team that has a puncher's chance of getting another title shot. The Ducks have to replace some outstanding senior leadership, and they have to respond to the sting of losing with fresh resolve, but they have the talent to keep succeeding in a big way. Can they repeat? No one knows. The cautious money has them at about 10-2 next year. Getting 10 wins or better depends chiefly on their willingness to commit to the hard work and character that made this year's team special. The Ducks weren't the most talented team in the country this year. The roster is not littered with five-star players and first round draft picks. They won with heart and preparation. They'll need the same heart and preparation looking forward, or they'll fall back a ways.

LSU isn't a must-win game, but it is pivotal. It's an opportunity for the players to motivate themselves in the weight room, winter workouts, spring practice and voluntary summer drills. Oregon has a strong cadre of players with Texas roots, most notably Darron Thomas, LaMichael James, Josh Huff, Lache Seastrunk, Marcus Davis, and Blake Cantu. Verbal commits Tra Carson and linebacker Anthony Wallace might also work their way onto the traveling squad. These players will want a good showing in front of their families and friends. They are the core of the team, and their desire to win in Dallas will provide fresh urgency for seven long months of getting better or losing ground.

A marquee matchup at the start of the season provides motivation all off season long. It's a target. It's like Rocky chasing the chicken. This one is particularly meaningful, because it comes against one of the traditional powers of the SEC, a team that won BCS Championships in 2003 and 2007, finished 11-2 this season with a lopsided win over Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl; a team that has won 102 games in the last ten years.

It isn't strictly a must-win. No game ever is. But a win serves notice. LSU will be a top-five team to start the season, and a win is instant creditability in the BCS horse race. Beat LSU, and the Ducks have an inside track on returning to the title game. Lose, and the dismissive thumbnail/kneejerk analysis starts all over again. Oregon can't compete against elite teams. Their smaller lines can't handle big physical athletes. They have a gimmick offense that can't stand up to the toughest opponents. They're a fraud. They dominate a weak conference, but aren't elite.

After the Auburn loss Chip Kelly reminded his team that one loss does not define them as players or as people. That's certainly true, but a win in Dallas creates a sharp focus for the rest of the season. They beat the Tigers, and the whole season begins to feel like a march to vindication and breaking through.

2011 Oregon Schedule

Sept. 3 vs. LSU*
Sept. 10 vs. Nevada
Sept. 17 vs. Missouri State
Sept. 24 at Arizona
Oct. 6 (Thu.) vs. California
Oct. 15 vs. Arizona State
Oct. 22 at Colorado
Oct. 29 vs. Washington State
Nov. 5 at Washington
Nov. 12 at Stanford
Nov. 19 vs. Southern California
Nov. 26 vs. Oregon State
*-at Arlington, Texas