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Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Tales From the Stat Sheet--Can Oregon Get the Passing Game On Track Against Auburn?

Auburn ranks 106th in the country in pass defense. If Oregon is going to win Monday night, Darron Thomas and the passing offense has to exploit the biggest weakness on a very good team. They have to get loose, stretch the field and score. It would be a huge edge for Thomas to find his rhythm early and be effective throwing the football.

The Ducks' sophomore quarterback had his best game of the year against UCLA in game seven. He had good games against the best competition versus Stanford and USC. He played a very effective game against Washington in week eight, throwing for 243 yards and a touchdown, running for 89 yards and two touchdowns.

In the last three games of the year, the Oregon passing game slumped. The entire offense lost its rhythm against Cal, and in the final two games, facing Arizona and Oregon State, Thomas was 28-48 for a total of just 283 yards, managing a quarterback rating around 140. He did throw five tds against one interception, but clearly, there were more misfires and less consistency.

Several factors contributed to the apparent slump. The cold, wet weather set in. Thomas was banged up, maybe a little more than we knew. The Oregon running game was less explosive, as LaMichael James had taken a pounding and was playing without his fourth and fifth gears. Cal in particular got some fierce penetration and pressure inside and disrupted timing in the pass attack. The receivers suffered a bout of drops. Time off to heal and work on rhythm will help in these areas. The weather in Glendale will be more favorable also.

Whatever the reasons, here are the stark facts: Cam Newton's passer ratings in his last three games: 193, 205, 206. Darron Thomas': 108, 143, 137.

The comparison is a little unfair, because Newton is so much bigger a part of the Auburn attack than Thomas is for the Webfoots. Auburn uses more play-action and throws deep more. But if Oregon is to have their best chance to outscore and upset the Tigers, Thomas needs to have an effective game.

Marquee matchups are nothing new for the Ducks' unflappable point man. So far this season he's gone head-to-head against Andrew Luck, Matt Barkley and Nick Foles, and each time he led his team to a decisive win. Thomas seems to thrive on a challenge. Oregon fans have to hope he's ready for the biggest one of the year.

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