The two stars you know about. We've been fed a steady diet of their unstoppableness for a month. To beat the Tigers, however, Oregon will have to break as near even as possible in those two imposing matchups, while winning several others. They'll have to hold Fairley and Newton to so-so games, not dominating games, and contain their supporting cast.
It's basic football math. Newton is two-thirds of the Auburn offense. Hold him to 80% of his normal production, and stuff a couple of his supporting weapons, and the Tigers score 27 points. Defensively, keep Fairley's damage to a reasonable level (and keep him from inflicting a serious injury) and that gives the Ducks time and opportunity to find the weaknesses in the rest of the defense, which are tangible. Auburn gave up 34 points to 6-6 Kentucky, which lost their bowl game yesterday. The Wildcats are a spread offense with multiple weapons, and Oregon is much better. This is a challenging but winnable game.
Rest assured, the Ducks and their coaches aren't making these kinds of calculations. Their goal is much simpler: execute and play hard. Try to win every play. Their effort won't be dictated by the score or the stats, just as always. The goal here is to give us a better understanding of the opponent and what they might do. Here are three key players on the 13-0 champions of the SEC:
Michael Dyer, running back
#5, 5-9, 215 lbs., freshman
Dyer broke Bo Jackson's Auburn freshman record by running for 950 yards this season. He played in the 2010 Under Armour High School All Star Game and was rated the nation's top-rated prep running back by espn.com. Powerfully built, he averaged 5.9 yards a carry with a long run of 38 yards, running for 180 yards versus Mississippi, and an even 100 yards against LSU and in the regular season game against South Carolina. He's principally a power back, a bruiser, thick with a tremendously strong lower body, tough after contact. He lowers his shoulder, driving through defenders with powerful legs and a good spin move.
Dyer wears number five as a tribute to his older brother Jonathan. Their father died in a car accident in 1994 when the boys were very young, Jonathan just five years old.
Duck tracks: As with Newton, the Ducks must gang tackle Dyer and limit his yardage after contact. He does most of his damage between the tackles, and Brandon Bair, Zac Clark and Casey Matthews have to wrap him up in the hole. Auburn's downhill running game, with Newton and Dyer as a one-two punch is extremely effective behind their big offensive line, a little like the challenge Stanford posed in 2009 with Toby Gerhart. Oregon's a year better than last year, more physical, and deeper on defense. They can't let the Tigers wear them down with the inside running game, although Auburn fans insist they will.
Onterio McCalebb, running back
#23 5-10, 171-lbs., sophomore
McCalebb is the scat back, the change of pace, an outside speed merchant the Tigers use in a similar role to Kenjon Barner and Josh Huff. Typically he gets from 5 to 12 carries a game, and for the season he had 89 for 763 yards, a scintillating 8.6-yard average per carry. According to collegefootballstats.com, Dyer had 26 runs of more than 10 yards, and five of more than 30. He had a 70-yard touchdown run that sealed the win against LSU, and a 68-yard burst against Mississippi the following week. He's dangerous, probably the fastest player on the field not named LaMichael James.
Duck tracks: To beat Auburn, the Ducks must win the battle of turnovers, limit explosion plays and get some key stops. McCalebb is a threat to explode for big yards every time he touches the ball. He had a 99-yard kickoff return versus Arkansas. At his best, he has a one-cut-and-go style very similar to LaMichael James with a fluid sprinter's stride. The Ducks have to stay home on the back side and maintain their containment. They must keep McCalebb from making a big, game-changing play.
Darvin Adams, wide receiver
#89 6-3 185 lbs., junior
Adams broke loose for 48 catches for 909 yards, tops on the team. He average 18.9 yards per catch, with a long of 62 yards. The 62-yarder was a touchdown on a Hail Mary in the SEC Championship Game. Coming just two seconds before the half, it took the fight out of a South Carolina team that had rallied to close the game to 21-14. The explosion play started a landslide, and the Tigers romped in the second half.
The Tigers use Adams to stretch the field, often after a play-action fake. For the season, 36 of his 49 catches went for 20 or more yards, and 15 for more than 30.
Duck tracks: Auburn offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn will use Adams to test Cliff Harris, and probably early in the game. Look for a double move route, trying to get Cliff to bite on an out like he did against Juron Criner, a clip the Tigers have probably seen a dozen times.
The matchup between Harris and Adams, as well as Talmadge Jackson III versus Terrell Zachary or Emory Blake, the Tiger's other fast wideouts, is crucial in this game. The Ducks are going to commit heavily to stopping the Auburn running game, so the Oregon cornerbacks have to win a one-on-one battle out wide against this talented group. They'll have to be tough, resilient and smart, and it would be a huge boost to Oregon's chances if they picked Newton's pocket a couple of times Monday night. It hasn't happened often this season, admittedly.
Oregon has faced a wide receiver group of this caliber several times in the PAC-10. The Tigers' deep threats have been effective this year, but they're no more talented than Robert Woods and Ronald Johnson at USC, for instance. All season long the Oregon secondary has battled it out against receivers like Washington State's Marquess Wilson, and Criner from Arizona. Every PAC-10 team has a quality deep threat, and many have two. In addition, the Duck cornerbacks battled every day in practice against Jeff Maehl. Iron sharpens iron, Chip Kelly says. For the season, Oregon held opponents to just 13 passing tds while nabbing 20 interceptions. Tomorrow night, winning the confrontations downfield could make the difference.
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