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Thursday, December 9, 2010

Running the Numbers, Running from the Numbers, or Throwing the Numbers Out the Window

Duck fans will get pummeled with analysis and statistics over the next five weeks, most of it with a pro-SEC, pro-Auburn bias.

The website bestcoastbias.com has a good statistical breakdown of the four PAC-10 bowl matchups. The author succeeds in filtering out the most critical stats in a meaningful side-by-side comparision. Oregon leads in points per game and Auburn has a slight edge in most other offensive categories. Defensively, Oregon has significant statistical advantages in turnover margin, points per game, yards per rush and yards per pass. Oregon held opponents to a red zone conversion rate of 67.6%. Auburn's foes scored in the red zone 87.5% of the time. Of course, Auburn fans will argue the Tigers played better competition, but he points out:

Both teams had comparable non-conference games to bolster their defensive numbers. Auburn played Louisiana-Monroe, Clemson, Arkansas State, and Chattanooga. Oregon played New Mexico, Tennessee, and Portland State, and then you could toss Washington State in there as a fourth team to balance it out.

In addition, the Ducks played six road games, and faced Andrew Luck, Matt Barkley and Nick Foles. Ryan Mallett got knocked out in the first half against Auburn, and it was a good thing, because he was shredding the Tiger secondary. SEC football has the imposing reputation, but the PAC-10 is the conference of quarterbacks, isn't it?






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