We're not fooling anybody here. This game has been analyzed to death over 44 days, and 2000 newspaper writers and 100 tv analysts have weighed in on it. Most say Auburn will win. Duck fans are cautious but hopeful. The national consensus is that Auburn is bigger, has played a tougher schedule, and no one has stopped Cam Newton.
The last point doesn't get more true merely because it's often repeated. In the eight games Auburn didn't play Chattanooga or Louisiana Monroe, they were held to 37 points or fewer in six of them: Alabama 28, LSU 24, Kentucky 37, South Carolina (regular season) 35, Clemson 27, Mississippi State 17. Clearly somebody stopped somebody in all of those games fairly often. Oregon, on the other hand, scored 37 points or more in 11 of their 12 games.
The Tigers are good. They're not unbeatable, just unbeaten. The same Duck team that hung 52 on Stanford and 53 on USC can score on Ted Roof's defense. The Ducks aren't intimidated and they aren't overmatched. Even Auburn honks say this year's Auburn squad would lose to the 2004 team. They are not a dynasty in the making, just a solid football team from an accomplished conference. So is Oregon.
The Ducks have the advantage of flying under the radar. Fairley and Newton are getting the bulk of the attention and hype. Kelly's team has been relatively quiet and serious, imposing a ten o'clock curfew on themselves, practicing and studying film, staying out of trouble and the Scottsdale nightlife.
Think of this as a review, a checklist. There's no mystery here:
1. The Ducks need a good, solid start. No implosions or early giveaways. They don't want to dig a hole for themselves or create a sense of inevitability for Auburn. Tigers are predators and predators prey on the weak and the vulnerable. They've got to stand up to the SEC Champions from the opening whistle and get that out of the way right now.
2. The Ducks need a good, solid, effective, efficient game from Darron Thomas. He has to distribute the ball and establish a downfield passing threat. He has to exploit the weakness in the Auburn secondary. Despicable U. ranks 106th in the country against the pass. Thomas has to be on, in rhythm, and under control. He has to be calm under pressure, take a few hits, and take care of the football if the pocket breaks down. He must read the safeties and make good decisions.
A lot has been made of his diminished productivity in the latter part of the season. He's had a month to clean things up. DT is a hard worker and a very thorough student in the film room. He has his mother's work ethic and determination. All through his career he's been matched up against athletes with bigger reputations, notably Andrew Luck as a Houston prep. He thrives on the overlooked role. Look for Thomas to have a breakout game in the National Championship. He doesn't care about the spotlight. He's there to win a game.
3. Oregon's defense must be its tough, athletic, pursuing, underrated self. They must gang tackle and contest every yard, sticking to the Oregon formula: multiple looks and multiple pressure, force turnovers, trade touchdowns for field goals. They'll strive to contain the run and limit explosion plays. Auburn will move the ball and they will score, but the Ducks have to keep fighting. They have to wear them down and win the battle of wills. They need four or five stops, and they have to keep fighting for them even if Newton and his mates have some early success.
4. Oregon must win the battle of turnovers. They can't spot favored Auburn points or possessions. They are a resilient group, but in this game with the attendant pressure and hype, they need to build confidence. Big games have a high quicksand factor. Turnovers are a step into the quicksand.
5. The offensive line has to protect Thomas and James. Fairley and the rest of the Auburn front have a deserved reputation as headhunters. They're physical, and football is supposed to be a hard-hitting physical game. But the leg-twisting, pile-driving, cheap shot two-steps-after-the whistle, small of the back stuff is another level of uncool. Fairley plays with an edge that will make him a lot of money. He'd be a perfect fit with the Baltimore Ravens. The Ducks front has to be on a mission. They have two slight, athletic stars, both tough and courageous, but not indestructible. They have to protect them. They have to keep Fairley from getting the cheap shot.
This matchup has gotten a lot of attention, and Greatwood, Helfrich and Kelly are masters of preparation. Fairley is a great player. So were Steven Paea and Brian Price. The Ducks have answered questions like this in the past and they will on Monday. The Oregon offense will make plays, particularly on the edges and in the passing game. Running inside? If there's a way, Chip Kelly and LaMichael James will find it.
6. Oregon has to exploit its advantage in special teams. The Tigers are only so-so in this area. The Ducks have better return teams and a better punter. Rob Beard struggled the last few games with field goals, but this offense doesn't settle for field goals very often anyway.
That's it. As Kelly has said, there's no magic formula or special secret scheme that is going to win this game. The Ducks have to block and tackle and want the football. They have to play with heart and determination and quiet confidence.
Just like they have for the last two years.
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