All year long Oregon has relied on a second half or second quarter surge. They wear teams down, and bury them with a flurry of points, big plays, takeaways and stops. As Anthony Newman describes it, the defense's hands go to their hips, and then their knees, and then they lose their will to compete. Oregon has owned the fourth quarter, and broken opponents down at the line of scrimmage as games wear on.
This is much less likely against Auburn. The Tigers have depth and talent of their own, and they too have a fast-paced offense. Not Oregon fast, but faster than most. And they have the multiplicity of weapons, a big offensive line and three quality running backs (including Newton, who functions as a third running back) if they get out to a lead. Auburn can follow the Ohio State blueprint, taking the air out of the ball if the Ducks start slow. The quicksand factor is much more significant in a big game, particularly for the perceived underdog.
In addition, the National Championship Game has more television timeouts and a longer halftime show. Oregon's conditioning edge will be tempered. Auburn has five weeks to prepare for the increased tempo. For all these reasons it becomes less of a factor. As I pointed out yesterday, teams leading at halftime are 11-0 in the BCS Championship.
Oregon will be competitive in this game, and they can win it. But they won't be able to rely as heavily on the blur and their tempo to do so. They will have to play fundamental football, and beat the vaunted SEC Champions straight up. It won't be gimmicks that win the Natty. It will be four quarters of good football, or wait till next year.
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