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Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Tales from the Stat Sheet: Trends the Ducks Must Buck to Beat Number One

Fast starts mean more in big games. Both teams are talented and used to winning. There's a lot of buildup and pressure. Getting out early helps. It helps you to relax and play confidently. It allows you to open up the offense and get in rhythm.

In the NFL's Super Bowl, for example, the team that scores first is 28-16. The BCS National Championship doesn't have a clear trend, as it's only been played 12 times. In those 12, the team scoring first is 6-6. The team leading at the end of the first quarter is 6-4 (two 0-0 ties). But the team leading at the half is a perfect 11-0 (the 2009 game was a 7-7 tie; Florida scored first in the second half, and beat Oklahoma 24-14).

A good start is vital for the Ducks against a favored, explosive Auburn team. Despite being 12-0, the Ducks have stumbled out of the gate often this season. The opponent has scored first in six of their games, they've trailed at the end of the first quarter six times, and trailed in the second quarter in eight of their games.

Oregon has given the ball away and shot themselves in the foot. Four times they fumbled an early kick or punt. In their last three games they ended their first offensive possession with a fumble, an interception, and a turnover on downs. Slow, negative starts are poison in big games, and the Ducks haven't had a fast start since UCLA at mid-season. Defensively, Oregon has given up a drive of 48 yards or more on their opponent's first possession seven times, giving up 27 points on first possessions.

cfbstats.com has some staggering numbers on Cam Newton, information that represents a real challenge for Oregon in the National Championship Game:

"After Cameron Newton‘s touchdown pass on Auburn’s opening drive of the SEC Championship game, CBS showed the stat that Newton is a perfect 19-for-19 passing in Auburn’s game-opening drives this season. After shaking of my disbelief at that stat — and wishing I had discovered it first — I wondered if any other quarterback in recent years has been perfect in his team’s game-opening drives for a season."

Newton has been deadly efficient in opening drives: 19-19, 300 yards, 3 touchdowns and no interceptions, for a passer rating of 284.73.

Darron Thomas, by contrast. is 25-38, 282 yards, 1 td and 2 ints in Oregon's first series. He's been sacked 7 times all season; 2 of those came in the game's first possession.

The Ducks pride themselves on their resilience, and rightly so. No one achieves a 12-0 season without overcoming adversity. But just because you're good at overcoming adversity doesn't mean you have to manufacture it. Oregon needs a fast start against Auburn. They need to establish themselves as the team that is loose, confident, and prepared to execute.

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