You can throw out the records if you want, but you'd be wasting a lot of valuable information. In the words of the immortal Bill Parcells, you are what your record says you are. For every time an underdog shocks a better team, there are five or six games the team with more size, speed and talent does exactly what they are supposed to do. The upsets get more attention and are more memorable, but favorites are favorites for compelling reasons. In this week's rivalry games, follow your instincts, and expect ability to count more than cheap motivational ploys. You'll be right 75-80% of the time.
2-2 last week, for a season record of 57-14 straight up. Against the number, I lose money like everybody else. Last week's line for the Oregon game was 19.5 and they won by 19. Be my guest if you want to pick against those guys.
6-8 sophomore Brock Osweiler came off the bench last week against UCLA last week to throw for 380 yards and four touchdowns for the improving Sun Devils, who are looking more and more like a team of the future in the new PAC-12. The Wildcats, meanwhile, seem to be doing a late-season fade for the second year in a row.
Doesn't matter. Trust your eyes, and the numbers. Arizona is still ahead of their in-state rivals, and they're at home.
Arizona 31, Arizona State 27
Washington at Washington State
The Cougs have been competitive all year, and Paul Wulff has started to put together a nucleus of kids he could build a team around. Last time out they upset Oregon State 31-14 and dominated the Beavs. But this is another big brother/little brother backyard brawl, and Washington has more to play for with a chance to send Jake Locker and the seniors to their first bowl game. With the PAC-10 having a scarcity of bowl-eligible teams, the Huskies' potential sixth win might earn them the Holiday Bowl. That's a nice consolation prize in Sarkisian's second year as coach.
Dawgs 21 Cougs 17
USC at UCLA
Two teams going nowhere, and last's year game is adding some nastiness to this rivalry. Neuheisel, you'll remember, called a needless timeout at the end of the game, and Pete Carroll and the Trojans responded by throwing a deep pass for an in-your-face touchdown. The dancing, hugging and celebrating on the SC sideline has to be a bitter memory in Westwood.
Matt Barkley is still listed as limited in practice this week, and that's a big factor, because backup Mitch Mustain was woeful against Notre Dame, 20-37 for no touchdowns and a pick in the end zone on the final drive.
Interestingly, Brehaut threw 56 passes in UCLA's loss to ASU. That's really cutting it loose for a team that has tried to establish the running game all year. He had three tds and 321 yards in the 55-34 loss. The Bruins don't want to get in a shootout with anyone.
UCLA is 4-7 and the Trojans are bowl ineligible. This game will be played in a half-empty Rose Bowl, a new low for a once-storied rivalry that used to decide the conference title and sometimes number one in the country. Which team has enough pride left to perform creditably with nothing to play for?
USC 24, UCLA 13
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