The SEC is a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Oregon isn't playing the entire Southeastern Football Conference. They're playing one game, against a very good but beatable Auburn football team. One team, one game, for the national championship. But in the five long weeks leading up to the game Oregon's fans, players and coaches will have to contend with the aura of invincibility that surrounds SEC football. We are going to become very tired of it.

Last night a panel of ESPN analysts were previewing awards and commenting on bowl games, and talk came to Auburn and the Tostitos BCS National Championship Game, a game to be carried on ESPN. The commentators were discussing strengths and weaknesses in the matchup, and most anticipated an Auburn win. David Pollack declared, "They beat SIX ranked teams!"

Of course they did. The SEC has six ranked teams because they follow a simple formula:

1. The prior year, the SEC has 7-8 teams qualify for a bowl, mostly in games that are played in the South before a largely home crowd.

2. Preseason, as returning bowl teams and perennial powers, at least six of the conference's teams will be ranked. This year's 0-0 AP poll included six SEC teams, including #4 Florida, which finished 7-5, and #23 Georgia, which ended 6-6.

3. SEC teams schedule 7-8 home games and four home games against out of conference patsies. This year's roster of victims included Troy, Furman, Chattanooga, and Louisiana-Monroe. They play an eight-game conference schedule that includes Vanderbilt or Mississippi. All of the SEC powers start the season assured of 5 wins. If they achieve a 3-4 record in the rest of their "grueling conference schedule" they are virtually assured of a national ranking. If they succeed in going 5-2 or better, they'll be in the top ten.

The net effect is a little like a college proclaiming academic superiority based on grade inflation. "We have more 4.0 students than any college in the country!"

4. Lather, rinse and repeat, for 78 years.

Now, much of the SEC's reputation is deserved. They send the most players to the NFL. They've won the last four national championships, and six of the twelve BCS title games. (Never mind that it's easier for an SEC team to be ranked number one or two, because of this carefully crafted formula.) David Pollack, ESPNU's SEC apologist, was a three-time All-American at Georgia who won the Lott, Bednarik, Ted Hendricks, and Lombardi Awards in his college career. That's an impressive list of credentials. In particular, Auburn is a fine football team. They deserve to be number one until someone beats them, and with their speed, size and resilience, that won't be a small challenge.

But the PAC-10 would in fact have six ranked teams and eight bowl eligible if they followed the SEC formula. Oregon State, for example, finished 5-7, losing to TCU, Boise State, Stanford and Oregon. Replace three of those games with home tilts versus McNeese State, Arkansas State, and Georgia State, and the Beavers are confident, healthy, and looking pretty good at 8-4.

Cal, UCLA, and Arizona State could have all benefited from some similar record inflation, gone to bowls near home and ended the season with some lovely parting gifts. They'd be ranked preseason next year, based on their winning record and strong finish.

Ironically, Oregon followed the SEC formula this year. They've made a bowl the last several years and began the season nationally ranked. They played a weak out of conference schedule and started their conference season with one of the league's lower-tier teams. They got most of their toughest games at home, and by the time they faced a difficult road test, they were confident and experienced. Guaranteed a probable 5-1 start, they vaulted themselves to the top by beating eventual #4 Stanford by three touchdowns at home. Next year, the Ducks will start highly ranked, and they'll benefit from the same inflated perception. They could lose two games and remain in the top ten, four games and remain in the top 25.

Do that conference-wide for 78 years, and you become the preeminent conference in college football.