Duck fans keep saying that Auburn won't be able to keep up with Oregon's pace, that even though the Tigers play a no-huddle, fast tempo spread, it isn't with the same frenzied pace that the Ducks do.
Statistically, it's true the Ducks play faster, running a play every 17 seconds at their best tempo, while Auburn hits the play clock around 24 seconds per play.
But it won't matter in this game. We've covered this before, but people keep bringing it up. Auburn is the deepest, fastest team Oregon has played this year. They're pretty good, and play at a good clip themselves. The National Championship game is a special circumstance. Ted Roof has five weeks to get his defensive team ready, and they were a well-conditioned football team to begin with.
In addition, the NCG is college's football's biggest payday. The teams will get $21 million apiece (they have to split it with their respective leagues, and buy hotel rooms for the band and rally squad, but still). Consequently the game has more and longer commercial breaks and a longer halftime show than any game all year. The wear down factor is mitigated. A crucial advantage Oregon has exploited all year simply doesn't exist in this game, due to its structure and the strengths of the opponent.
To beat Auburn, the Ducks will have to play their best game of the year, limit turnovers, and play four quarters of sound, fundamental football. There are no magic tricks or gimmicks. There will certainly be moments of memorable misdirection and chicanery, because the game features two of the game's most inventive offensive minds in Auburn's Malzahn and Chip Kelly. But the game will be won or lost the same way every game ultimately is, with blocking and tackling and disciplined execution. Auburn will handle Oregon's pace of play better than any team has all season. They are better acclimated, and they have more time to adjust. That doesn't mean the Ducks are done, or even disadvantaged. It just means they'll have to be prepared for the Tigers' best shot. They'll have to win straight up, mano a mano, like Lieutenant Dan climbing the rigging during the hurricane. They'll have to wear their magic legs, and run.
The second most overstated factor is the Auburn delusion that their team has been tested by a tougher schedule and will blow the Ducks out of the water merely by showing up. Oregon isn't intimidated by anyone. They don't feel pressure because they know what they're doing, and as we've discussed, they've faced big, physical offensive and defensive lines all season. The Ducks have an athletic, agile, swarming defense, ideally suited to compete with Auburn's multiple offense and their reliance on Cam Newton. Casey Matthews, Josh Kaddu and Kenny Rowe will pursue him better than anyone has all year, and Oregon's secondary will contest his passing game. The Ducks are good tacklers. They have five players with 60 or more tackles, and 17 with 22 or more. They've held opponents to 4.5 yards per play and forced 35 turnovers.
Auburn has faced tough competition this year, but they've also faced eight conference games against teams with inflated records and rankings. The Tigers were rarely dominant and often challenged in a league that has a rightful claim to historical supremacy but little legitimate claim to undisputed preeminence in the here and now. This isn't Oregon versus the SEC; it's Auburn versus Oregon, and even if it were, this Oregon team would be very competitive. Auburn beat Alabama 28-27, beat LSU 24-17, beat Clemson 27-24, beat Kentucky 37-34. I like the Ducks' chances against the same four opponents, but that's a hypothetical, and we don't deal in hypotheticals.
The third overstated factor is the lazy assertion that no one can stop Cam Newton. Nonsense. You're only saying that because the NCAA couldn't. Take another look at the scores above. Even with Cam Newton playing his best football against teams with crucial weaknesses, Auburn rarely dominated anyone. They won games by the stripes of their fur, and in a couple of them they lost a claw or two in the fourth quarter. Cam Newton is a great football player, a force on the field. Statistically he's had the best season since Vince Young left Texas or Tebow cried his last tear for Florida. But look objectively at the results and box scores: Auburn is not an unstoppable football team with a wall of mayhem for a defense. They are just a very good one.
So is Oregon, and this will be a competitive game, decided by who plays better in two weeks. Posturing, reputation, fan claims and counterclaims won't make a difference of one feather, be it an eagle's or a duck's. To win, both teams have to tackle and take care of the football. It isn't inevitable. The future isn't written. It's earned.
No comments:
Post a Comment