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Monday, October 18, 2010

The Most Dangerous Opponent on the Oregon Schedule

It's fun to look ahead and project. It's amazing to contemplate the first number one ranking in Oregon history. It's incredible to think that if the Ducks win out, they're going to the national championship game with a chance to win the whole enchilada with a scoop of sour cream and avocado.

Right now LaMichael James is on the first page of candidates for the Heisman trophy. If Cam Newton falters and LMJ keeps running the way he has his entire Oregon career, it's his. The Ducks have made it to 6-0 without playing a complete game. This team could be even better in the second half. The defense could become a stalwart, dominating unit. The Ducks could go undefeated, but it will be a dogfight.

On paper the USC game looks like the biggest test. Arizona has probably lost Nick Foles for the year, and the Beavers' James Rodgers suffered a season-ending knee injury a week ago. The Trojans came alive with a vengeance on Saturday, clubbing the Cal Bears 48-14. They have a bye week to get ready, and the Kiffins seem to have the remaining 70 5-star and 4-star players riled up to defend the Trojan legacy.

The conference and the country had written them off after two losses, but now they seem to have found something to play for. Matt Barkley and his two leading receivers, Robert Woods and Ronald Johnson, have started to click in a big way. Barkley threw five tds Saturday, three the week before, and he hasn't been intercepted in three games. For the season he's thrown 20 touchdown passes and Woods/Johnson have caught 13 of them. His two leading tailbacks, Bradford and Tyler, have rushed for a combined 998 yards.

The SC defense has been uneven, but as always it is loaded with talent. They may have found themselves against the Bears, holding Shane Vereen to 53 yards, and entire Cal team to 245 and just ten first downs in a 48-14 rout. The Trojans put on the brakes early. The second team played most of the second half. It felt like the old days in the Coliseum, and it felt good.

But the Trojans aren't the Duck biggest problem. If they don't beat UCLA Thursday, the showdown with USC will mean half as much. The Ducks have to win out to make Glendale. It's amazing to say it, but at this point making the Rose Bowl would seem like a disappointment.

They have to complete a six-team parlay to stay number one. SC is probably the biggest hurdle, but they have to do the full Renaldo Nehemiah to play for the big trophy.

A look around the country shows the road to perfection is pockmarked with craters and potholes. In the last two weeks the number one team in the country has lost twice, and this last Saturday three top ten teams lost. In week three there were 22 unbeaten teams in the AP top 25. In week four, there were 19, after week six, 13, and after Saturday, ten. This coming weekend four unbeatens square off, LSU at Auburn, and Oklahoma at Missouri. In other games, Wisconsin travels to Iowa and 5-1 Nebraska to 6-0 Oklahoma State. The field continues to narrow, and unless the Sooners, Ducks or Auburn Tigers are flawless turning the corner, the country football world gets closer and closer to the awful reality of TCU and Boise at the top of the medal stand.

They already stage cupcake competitions on the Food Network. Who wants to see one for the crystal football? Oregon owes it to the country to finish the job, and avert a ratings and competitive disaster, the triumph of the non-AQs.

And the job this week is UCLA. All it takes for an average team to beat a good team is for the good team to do nothing. UCLA has enough good players to be dangerous, a long week to prepare, and a coach with a history of dancing on the Oregon logo, faking punts leading by 20 and chortling scoreboard, baby. Duck fans remember. These players are too young.

UCLA beat Texas 34-12 in Royal Stadium. Their two tailbacks, Johnathan Franklin and Derrick Coleman, have combined to rush for over a 1,000 yards and nine touchdowns, Franklin for 6.1 yards a carry, and Coleman for 7.5. On the other side of the ball junior linebacker Akeem Ayers is an All-American and likely NFL first-round draft choice, 6-4 255 and lightning quick. He's the one who picked Nate Costa's pocket in the end zone last year, one of the most athletic defensive plays imaginable.

When you have an opponent with numbers and ability like this, it's foolish to look forward to the next one. It's fun to speculate about what might come to be, but it's time for Oregon fans to start thinking about game next, and get their Yell-O on for Thursday night.

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