Week Nine Preducktion: Oregon at USC

"The best way to beat the team you are going to play is to have your team play with conviction."
-----Chip Kelly, at a coaching clinic

So far the Ducks have been underwhelming on the road, scoring 42 and 43 points on the two worst teams in the league. All of their best, most complete performances have come at home. They even struggled for a quarter and a half at Tennessee. In each of their road games, at Neyland Stadium, at Arizona State, at Washington State, they struggled early with turnovers, giving up short fields, and the three unaccomplished opponents moved the football with unexpected and alarming efficiency. The Ducks put each away with a surge, and surge might be harder to come by against USC.

The Ducks can beat the Trojans; they're even favored to do so, but it's a significant step up in class from the easy victories one through seven. They'll have to manufacture some stops on defense, and they'll have to keep their offensive rhythm and tempo going against a group that is bigger, faster, more athletic and more talented than anyone they've faced so far, a group that seemed to come into its own in a dominating win over Cal, a Cal team that in turn dominated the same Sun Devils Oregon struggled with.

A lot of experts are picking Chip Kelly's team to fall, Pat Forde of ESPN among them. The ESPN guys like to give nicknames to the compelling weeks of the college football season, the two they've thrown out this week are "Roadblock Saturday" or "Anarchy Saturday." We'll see if either one sticks, but one thing is certain, the roadblock in front of the Ducks is bigger than most.

Monte Kiffin is a defensive genius who's won championships at both levels. Long before the Oregon spread or Tampa 2 he was drawing up schemes to stop offensive juggernauts, including the Oklahoma Sooners of the '70s while a defensive coach at Nebraska. Kiffin and the Huskers went to three straight Orange Bowls and won two national championships.

Here's a sample of his work in big games:
'71 Orange Bowl Nebraska 17, LSU 12
'72 Orange Bowl Nebraska 38, Alabama 6
'73 Orange Bowl Nebraska 40, Notre Dame 6
'74 Cotton Bowl Nebraska 19, Texas 3
2003 Super Bowl Tampa Bay 48, Oakland 21

That's a lot of defensive excellence with multiple production trucks outside the stadium, and each case the opponent had a formidable offense and Kiffin had extra time at the greaseboard. No one has figured out the Oregon spread completely, but he's seen more option football and more unstoppable offenses than anyone, and he's had time to go forward and back over the key moves of Ohio State and ASU repeatedly. Ohio State held the Ducks to 17 points, and Arizona State to 28 (the Oregon defense contributing the other two touchdowns). He'll build on their foundation, and Helfrich and Kelly will have to counter by finding some new creases and cracks.

Scheming will only take you so far. The Ducks have only four basic running plays, the inside zone, the outside zone, the counter and draw. It isn't complicated. What makes them successful are players who do their jobs at a relentless pace with great execution. The Ducks play with the conviction Kelly envisioned before his clinic audience. They understand what they are doing and why. Their understanding prepares them for any situation, for the wrinkles defenses introduce to try to confuse them.

Kiffin will overthink it. He's got his players in a frenzy of adjustments, and Oregon has the great luxury of doing what they know they can do, doing what they've prepared for their entire Oregon careers. Continuity breeds confidence. A frantic overhaul breeds false bravado. The Ducks will be ready on Saturday, synchronized and executing brilliantly. The Trojans will be struggling to remember a hundred adjustments, with labored breathing and overloaded minds.

By mid-third quarter, we'll see the vacant stare. On defense, the Ducks will produce enough stops to put the game out of reach, and finally the doubters will be convinced. This is a great football team. It isn't a fancy, gimmicky offense that makes them great. It's their character, and commitment to each other. At USC it's four-star, five-star and the two-ring Kiffin circus, and all the Hollywood trappings and big-money tradition won't win this football game. The ghosts of past glories won't. Simple blocking and tackling will, and the Ducks do that better.

The Trojans aren't geared for this pace, and Oregon's cohesive and opportunistic defense will get enough stops to push the game out of reach.

Oregon wins, handily. This is the game that defines them, where a promising season turns to greatness. They'll get off the Trojans' lawn. Right after they claim it as their own. "Conquest" is no substitute for conviction.

Oregon 48, USC 31