Thus far this season Oregon's defense has given up:
23 carries 162 yards to Tennessee's Tauren Poole, his season high, with a long run of 39 yards, his season high
11 carries 127 yards to Arizona State's Deantre Lewis, his season high, with a long run of 53 yards, his season high
17 carries 113 yards to Stanford's Stepfan Taylor, his season high, with a long run of 44 yards, his season high
11 carries 50 yards to Washington State's James Montgomery, his season high against FBS competition, with a long run of 26 yards, his season high against FBS competition (he ran for 116 in the Cougar's lone win, against Montana State.)
UCLA ranks 13th in the country in rushing yards, and tailback Johnathan Franklin has a season high of 30 carries 216 yards against Washington State, with a long run of 35 yards against Texas.
Number two tailback Derrick Coleman has a season high of 15 carries 185 yards against Washington State, with a long run of 73 yards; he had 16 carries 94 yards against Texas.
Flight Pattern: The Ducks have made several mediocre running backs look great, and this Thursday they face two very good ones. They will have to improve their execution, assignments, tackling and recognition to produce better results in run defense in the second half of the season. Franklin, Allen Bradford, Chris Polk, Shane Vereen, Nic Grigsby and Jacquizz Rodgers are all more talented runners than the group that chewed up yardage on the Ducks in the first half.
Other key numbers for the UCLA-Oregon matchup:
Rushing offense: Oregon 3rd in the nation, 314.8 yards per game, behind Air Force and Georgia Tech. UCLA 13th, 223 yards per game.
Rushing defense: Oregon 38th 126.5 yds per game, UCLA 92nd, 182.3 yards per game
Passing offense: Oregon 34th 252 yds. per game, UCLA 118th, 95.5 yards per game
Turnover margin: Oregon 2nd +1.50 per game, UCLA 90th, -.67 per game
Oddsmakers have Oregon anywhere from a 21 to a 24-point favorite.
Flight Pattern: The UCLA offense is one-dimensional, and the Ducks have an excellent chance to build some defensive momentum for the second half of the season. So much of great defense is will and belief, and putting up a dominating performance against a faltering UCLA attack could ratchet their intensity for games 8-12, where the Ducks will face some great individual talents, four or five against USC alone.
UCLA's starting quarterback Kevin Prince is still bothered by a knee injury and limited in practice, and neither he or backup Richard Brehaut has thrown the ball with any effectiveness. Prince has a season high of 120 yards, on 9-26 passing in the season opening loss to Kansas State, while Brehaut's best effort was 12-23 for 128 yards against Washington State.
Meanwhile, the Ducks have given up the following passing numbers in conference play:
30-57, 387 yds to Steven Threet, ASU
29-46, 341 yds to Andrew Luck, Stanford
25-40, 245 yds to Jeff Tuel, Washington State
Prince and Brehaut may not have jelled with their receivers to the point they can exploit what they see on the video, but Oregon will have to improve dramatically on these numbers to avoid being exposed by Barkley, Locker, Riley, Foles (if healthy) and Katz.
The Oregon defense has been effective enough to win six games, but they won't get six more unless they play better. They have to assert themselves and achieve their potential, tackle better, pressure better, and fill gaps. They have to cut down on missed assignments and explosion plays. They have to accept the challenge, and shut down some of the star performers in the conference that are waiting for their chance to knock them off.
It will take a monumental, sustained effort to go undefeated in the PAC-10 and earn a trip to the national championship. It's a wonderful accomplishment to even be in this position. The Ducks have the potential to be a team for the ages, and they have the depth, talent and leadership to just do it, starting with UCLA on Thursday. 7-0 is where we dreamed they'd be, going into the Coliseum for game 8.
Under Alliotti, UO has always had a "bend but don't break" when it comes to pass defense. Some games it burns us, but overall I trust in what he's doing. Overall, I have faith in this defense. We just need to make some stops earlier.
ReplyDeleteWhile the defensive numbers are scary, we need to remember that the ducks defense sees more plays than almost every other defense in the nation. If a running back gets 20 more carries against oregon than against any other defense they have played, of course they are going to have more total yards. The telling stat is not total yards, it is yards per carry, and last i saw oregon is giving up only 3 yards per carry avg. Making them one of the top schools in that stat.
ReplyDeleteSo please put it in perspective before stating that the ducks D is mediocre. Oh just an fyi the defense is giving up only 71 yards total and 4.3 points per game in the second half. Thats better than any team currently.
Todd--
ReplyDeleteThanks for writing. You make a good point that the per-play numbers and other statistical breakdowns are informative, but it is still also true that the Ducks have surrendered some alarming numbers to individual players, and in the second half Oregon will face offensive stars with great ability. They will have to play better to do as well.
You are absolutely right that the halftime adjustments and the 2nd half performances by the defense have been outstanding.
There may come a day they have to play at that level for four quarters to win.
BP--
Alliotti has said he hates the bend but don't break label but opponents have found some soft spots in the Oregon coverage. But at the same time his defense has produced 6 wins, 16 sacks, 22 turnovers, and a number one ranking. I agree with you in trusting what he's doing, and I think he would agree with us that Tenacious D has to be more tenacious in games 7-12.
Dale
I would not mind seeing Aliotti be replaced, he is a good D Coordinator but if the Ducks want to contend every year we are going to need a better defensive mind.
ReplyDelete"Allow- Allot-ti"
ReplyDeleteKeith--
ReplyDeleteThanks for commenting. I think Coach Alliotti is a fine, dedicated and knowledgeable coach. He's passionate and an excellent teacher of the game.
Many people do agree with you, but I don't feel he should be replaced. Oregon has won a lot of football games with Alliotti in the booth. Todd and others make a good point about the yards-per-play numbers, which put the defensive evaluation in a completely different light. Oregon's defense defends more plays than almost anyone, and that has to be considered.
In any case, wins are the most important stat, always. The true measure of Coach Alliotti will be the next six games. They have the opportunity and the talent to achieve something no Duck team has ever done. We'll see if he and his players can finish what they started.
Dale
This may be one of the best perspectives I have seen in weeks. It's all about the "D" right now carrying the Ducks into a repeat as Pac 10 champs. They have significant gaps despite the happy face they are given. Gildon and Jackson are the most unintimidating corners in the league (also lacking in confidence around the ball.) Boyet is not the same guy from last year. He misses assignments and is getting beat deep often. The featherweight "D" front line gets pushed around the 1st half of every game against a non JC caliber team only to wear down the "O" line in the 2nd. This will change with starting with USC. They looked scary good for the first 1/2 of the Cal game...2004 Nat. Champ caliber. For the delusional, an undefeated season with 9 conference games and every team gunning to take down the Ducks will be impossible. For the real Duck fan...you have to love watching these guys win or lose...they are the most entertaining team in America...just don't expect them to go undefeated. It will still be a highly successful season if they repeat at Pac-10 champs and for once we can say that they were truly #1 (at least for now)
ReplyDeleteGo Ducks!
Kevin,
ReplyDeleteThat's a strong take. Running the table in this conference is a tall order, and you're right, the Trojans seem to have found themselves, especially offensively.
The Ducks have put themselves in a great position, but there does have to be some concern about the defense, especially at cornerback. Maybe Cliff Harris will put it together and win NA's confidence. He certainly has lockdown potential.
Dale