The Pessimist's Guide to the Football Universe

By any objective measure, the Oregon strength of schedule is suspect, as nutritious as a cupcake burrito. They have a marquee win at home against Stanford, wrapped around a collection of dominating wins over a collection of bottom feeders and cellar dwellers that Bill Snyder could only dream of. They shellacked 0-7 New Mexico, manhandled 2-5 Tennessee after a bolt of lightning gave them time to get themselves in order, walked over FCS Portland State( 2-5,1-3 in the Big Sky), stumbled early but rallied versus 3-4 Arizona State, beat Stanford, struggled early with 1-6 Washington State and pummeled an inept 3-4 UCLA squad 60-13.

The Ducks have played one serious opponent in seven games. They've rolled to lopsided victories in six others, but their opponents in those six are combined 9-20, collectively playing some of the worst football in the country. New Mexico is 0-18 over the last two seasons under beleaguered head coach Mike Locksley, outscored this season 309-95. The Lobos are 117^th in points for, 120^th, dead last, in points against. Despite their storied tradition Tennessee has struggled miserably this year, with four one-sided losses against top competition. Their two wins have come against Tennessee-Martin and Alabama-Birmingham, and there are no hyphenated schools left on their schedule. They snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by miscounting their substitutions on a critical last play against LSU, a season-changing win morphed into another agonizing loss, and the image of Coach Derek Dooley tossing off his headset in disgust will replay in the minds of Volunteer fans until spring practice.

Portland State lost to Arizona State 54-9, and has lost three in a row in Big Sky competition to Montana State, Montana and Weber State. Their defense has given up 44 points or more four times, twice in the Big Sky, to both Bobcats and Wildcats. LaMichael James scorched the Vikings for 227 yards on the ground, an impressive number, but less impressive when you consider Weber State running backs Bo Bolen and Vaingamalie Tafuna combined for 309.

The Ducks made Arizona State look like a bowl team for the first two quarters. They trailed 24-14 late into the second, and for the game the Sun Devil offense exploded for 597 yards. This is how bad that is: ASU had 553 yards of offense against Portland State, and only 450 against Northern Arizona. That puts Oregon’s defense in some very porous company. Cal dumped this same ASU team 50-17, and held them to 234 total yards, a sobering difference.

Stanford was a convincing win, but even in this one the Ducks gave an uneven performance. They had another poor early start and allowed the Cardinal to jump out to a 21-3 lead. Unheralded Stepfan Taylor rambled for 113 yards and a 44-yard touchdown, the longest run of his career. Andrew Luck passed for 341 yards despite relying on walk-on Griff Whalen as his leading receiver.

Oregon beat Washington State by 20, but USC beat them by 34. The Cougars are certainly playing harder this year but the results are the same: 1-7, 116^th in rushing, 98^th in points for, 117^th in points against. This was another game where nothing was learned, and several Ducks went to the sidelines with injuries, including stellar return man Kenjon Barner and quarterback Darron Thomas.

UCLA was the next victim, 60-13. The Bruins are 1-3 in conference, with their signature win a beatdown of Texas, which looked impressive until Iowa State did the same thing. Oregon rolled UCLA, but so did California and UCLA before them, Stanford 35-0, Cal 35-7. Bruin starting QB Kevin Prince was sidelined for this game, the Ducks got to backup Richard Brehaut for 3 sacks, an interception, and two fumbles near the goal line.

Oregon has done everything the schedule has required them to do, but added together, it isn’t much. They’ve had one difficult game and that one was at home. In fact, the opponent in that game is relatively untested as well. Outside of Oregon Stanford hasn’t played a ranked team, and they needed a last-second field goal to beat USC at home.

The Trojans are confident they can put a mixed martial arts beating on the Ducks, as announced to the world via twitter by their sophomore quarterback Matt Barkley in a boast he later deleted. But in cyberspace our errors live forever. “Wow, Brock just got rocked,” he wrote, “Lesnar is to Oregon as Velasquez is to SC.” Bold words for a bye week, the stuff that makes corkboards in most locker rooms, but Chip Kelly isn’t one for cheap motivational ploys, and the Duck locker room isn’t a place for a cheap corkboard. Kelly’s is a consistent message. “We prepare against a vision,” he says, every week, no matter how the media tries to couch the question. In the Oregon meeting rooms SC is neither Lesnar or Velasquez. They’re just another opponent, with red jerseys and a defense that likes to play Tampa 2.

Oregon may lose to USC, but it won’t be because they overlooked them or found them intimidating. The Ducks have prepared in a consistent way for every opponent on their schedule. They’ve had some slow starts and disturbing early turnovers, but they seem to have ironed out problems in the kick return game and found sufficient teachable moments to address the other miscues; they didn’t have a single giveaway against UCLA.

Here are the Trojans chief advantages in the game. None of these are insurmountable, but all of them have to be accounted for:

· They’re playing at home. Oregon’s last three losses have come on the road. Oregon’s defense is a touchdown better at home. They feed off the energy of the home crowd, and Autzen helps disrupt the visitors timing and communication. The Los Angeles Coliseum is not an intimidating atmosphere, particularly, but for USC, getting Oregon away from Eugene is a big plus.

· They have a balanced attack, and the ability to play ball control, power football. Ohio State and Stanford used this formula to take the air out of the ball last year. Run downhill on the Ducks, the thinking is, and keep that high-powered offense on the sidelines.

· They have fast wide receivers and a physical defense. SC’s defense hasn’t been lights out intimidating, but they have talented players who seem to be figuring out Monte Kiffin’s system. They held Cal to 245 total yards, picked off Kevin Riley twice, and limited superstar tailback Shane Vereen to 53 yards. The Bears got down early and had to abandon the running game, however. Vereen only got 10 carries. On the offensive side of the ball, Johnson and Woods may be the most explosive, dangerous wide receiver tandem in the West. The Ducks haven’t faced two of this caliber, and they've given generous chunks of yards to offenses with lesser weapons.

Oregon can win this game. Oregon should. The wise guys say they will by a touchdown. But the effort and execution that dispatched New Mexico and Washington State won’t work against the Trojans. The Ducks have to avoid turnovers, limit big plays and avoid letting the Trojans put them in a Velasquez-like clinch.