What the Kiffins Will Learn from the Tape, and How the Ducks Will Make Them Suffer for It

Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it
-----George Santayana

The past is not dead. In fact, it isn't even past.
-----William Faulkner

Monte Kiffin has a blueprint for Saturday night. He's spent a week ruling and protracting, and another laying out the foundation for his players. He based his design on video and cutups from Oregon's games, and no doubt he paid closest attention to Arizona State this season and Ohio State in last year's Rose Bowl.

Those teams had the greatest success in frustrating the Oregon spread offense. The Sun Devils held the Ducks' attack to 28 points (14 were scored by the defense) and 385 yards, and the Buckeyes to 17 points and 260, all dismal numbers considering how consistently productive the Webfoots have been otherwise. Both games were on the road on grass, and that seems to be a critical part of the formula.

Arizona State disrupted the spread with pressure from the linebackers. They repeatedly timed and jumped the snap count and knifed into gaps. Oregon's offensive line didn't have an answer to Ohio State's big, quick defensive tackles, who got penetration inside and blew up the zone read before it could get going. The Buckeye defensive ends and linebackers did a great job of staying home, executing assignments with discipline and given then-quarterback Masoli conflicting, confusing reads. They had an answer for everything he tried to do, and kept him from getting any rhythm going . Oregon lost its tempo, and shot themselves in the high ankle area with a tipped interception just before half and a red zone fumble in the third quarter, the two errors accounting for a 20-point swing in the game. Masoli had a brutally bad game, 81 yards passing, 9 yards rushing. The spread seemed dead, and the Buckeye message boards went wild.

Will Saturday night be a repeat of Oregon's past, slower on grass, sluggish in Los Angeles, struggling with a fast, physical defense? I'm thinking not. The Ducks have several things going for them in game 8 of 2010 they didn't have last year, or even a few weeks ago in Tempe.

For one, the wraps are off Darron Thomas and the Oregon passing game. His comfort level and mastery of the offense has grown exponentially, and Kiffin can't afford to put one extra defender in the box. The Ducks will shred that strategy with five capable targets, from David Paulson in the seams to LaMichael James sprinting down the sideline. Thomas, taller than Masoli and less easily rattled in the pocket, goes through progressions better than any quarterback the Ducks have had since Bill Musgrave, and has shown himself willing to stand in to the last split second to complete a critical pass.

The offensive line has adjusted and is picking up those run blitzes better, and the coaches will be sure to have DT vary the snap count more to prevent the Trojan linebackers from cheating up. The new signal boards discourage efforts to compromise the offensive signals and provide an entertaining sidelight for the media. Holmes and Thomas don't struggle with the center snap the way Masoli and Holmes did, so the timing is more consistent at the start of plays, making the zone read much smoother. The deception in the zone read is improving every time out; Thomas and James fooled the cameras and the commentators 4-5 times versus UCLA.

Oregon has played it under wraps most of the season in terms of deception and misdirection. They've managed to maintain a very high level of productivity without going deep into the playbook or exhausting the many variations they have of their basic plays. They've shown a lot of counters, reverses and backside plays without having to actually use them. If SC overcommits to stop the zone read or stretch, the Ducks have a lot of answers they haven't yet exposed.

Even so, the Oregon spread isn't a gimmick, a fad or a flash in the pan. It's solid fundamentals and 11-man disciplined execution at a very fast and well-organized pace. Kiffin's defenders have spent a week-and-a-half trying to condition themselves for the speed of this offense and their quickness to the ball and with the ball, but the UO squad has been playing and practicing this way for three years. No crash course prepares defenses for the real thing. By the second quarter the hands go to the hips, and by the middle of the third quarter, to the knees. This is a relentless style of football, a perfect blend of style and commitment.

Oregon will play well because they prepare well. They know what they are doing and believe in it, so the Coliseum or the vaunted Trojan history creates no special pressure. They'll be facing a genuinely good football team in USC with some impressive talent, but these Ducks are better, more organized than the Trojans, more authentically motivated, and better coached. There won't be a repeat of the disappointing past. Chip Kelly's team is ready for the next level of success.