Arizona State is better than any team Oregon has faced so far, but not as good as the Ducks.
The Vegas wise guys , who strive to make the public lean the wrong way half the time, have Oregon as a 10.5 favorite on the road. By contrast the Beavers are 16-point dogs at Boise State. Rodents don't usually like to climb that far uphill, but that is a tempting number to offer on a team with a ground-hugging, ground-hogging running back. A double dose of Rodgers might buck the Broncos, or come close.
The Ducks won't take their eyes off the Sun Devils, but I can't help it. A BSU stumble would bring UO one notch closer to Glendale, and further ramp up interest in next week's head-on battle with 4-0 Stanford, assuming this mental three-team parlay goes according to form.
Back to Tempe. Dennis Erickson has dished out a cup or two of misery to Oregon fans over the years, five-pick beatdowns and denied trips to the Rose Bowl, a disastrous late-game twist of the knee, snatching victory from the jaws of defeat more than once. We've had the better of him in his three years at ASU, 44-21 last season at Autzen, 54-20 two years ago in the desert, 35-23 in 2007 to knock them out of a share of first place. But he's a crafty, bitter old man, untrustworthy and full of empty flattery. He'll pour it on this week, honeyed accolades to Oregon's speed and talent, all the time concocting schemes to ruin a season of dreams. Don't be taken in. He's as wily as a coyote, eager to snare roadrunner LaMichael James, and far less likely to be flattened by an Acme anvil dropped from the canyon ledge.
Don't swallow the coach-speak: his Sun Devils beat Portland State 54-9; they lost by just a missed extra point to #11 Wisconsin on the road. They're not that far off Oregon's pace, and have plenty of weapons of their own. This is the PAC-10 opener. It's a crucial, losable game. The Ducks have to prepare themselves for the desert heat and the devil speed, and ignore the distractions and national praise. 3-0 doesn't mean anything, except you're still alive in the BCS survivor series. Stanford is 3-0 too, and they've beaten much better teams.
On the field, Erickson has switched to a fancy-pants spread offense, installing Michigan transfer Steven Threet in the shotgun almost exclusively, seven yards behind center with the tailback off to one side, most of the time with four wides. Threet is tall, 6-5 240, and so far he's completed 66% of his passes for 841 yards, 5 tds and 3 interceptions. Thus far he hasn't shown himself to be much of a threat to run, just 10 official attempts for 17 net yards. He was a part-time starter at Michigan in 2008, throwing for more than 1100 yards, but left when Rich Rodriguez was hired, wanting to ply his trade in a pro-style passing attack. Erickson lured him to Tempe, then a season later, switched to the spread himself. Threet has adapted, eager to be taking live snaps again, glad to be throwing 23 times a game.
He has weapons around him. The tailback tandem of Cameron Marshall and Deantre Lewis has rushed for a combined 44 carries for 318 yards, a 7.2 yard average, including freshman Lewis's 9 carries for 122 yards against Big 10 run smashers Wisconsin. They are fast and elusive, and the Arizona State staff will surely take note of the success Tauren Poole had for Tennessee two weeks ago. Look for ASU to try to spring these guys early with some combination blocking inside, spreading out the defense with four wide receivers and double-teaming Brandon Bair. The task is a little more challenging for Erickson however, as he's lost two offensive linemen for the season to injury already, Zach Schlink and John Hargis.
Out wide, Threet and the Sun Devils have spread the ball to 13 different wide receivers, a benefit of blowout wins over FCS opponents in the first two games. Kerry Taylor, a 6-0 senior from Chandler Arizona, leads the team with 13 catches for 180 yards and a touchdown. He caught 22 balls last year and 27 as a sophomore. Former Duck Aaron Pflugrad is second on the team with 15 grabs for 165 yards, including a long of 45. The Ducks must also be looking out for #1 Mike Willie, a 6-4 220 junior who snared 8 balls for 114 yards in the Northern Arizona game two weeks ago. Tall receivers are a particular challenge for Anthony Gildon and Talmadge Jackson III matched up one-on-one outside. The tailback Lewis has four receptions, including two for touchdowns against Portland State, one a 62-yarder.
Threet zips the ball and looks comfortable in the pocket. Against Wisconsin ASU missed a chip shot field goal and had an extra point blocked and lost by a single point. Threet led four long drives and mixed up the run and pass very well. The first two drives took nearly 12 minutes off the clock in the first half and kept the Wisconsin offense in check for much of the early going.
At home this week, expect the Sun Devils to use the same formula to try and frustrate Oregon's offense. They'll bring pressure and stunts to try to get Darron Thomas to repeat the mistakes he made in the Portland State game, and try to bend and then break Oregon's defense with a mix of tailback bursts and passes underneath. Threet has the arm to challenge the Oregon secondary, and at least one of his receivers is burning and itching to get deep on the Ducks.
He's got a fever, and the only cure is more pitchfork. Hopefully the Ducks have a number one hit of their own they're working on in the studio.
He's got a fever, but does he need more pitchfork or more cowbell. I think he'll be hearing cowbells after the Ducks are done with him.
ReplyDeleteAnon--
ReplyDeleteFunny. Be interesting to see if Pflu gets loose in this game. I know he'll want that opportunity. I'm sure John Boyette will want to say hello.
Dale