Pac-10 Predictions, Week 4: Whacking Stick Saturday

Season record is 26-2. With PAC-10 play kicking in, the picking just got harder.

#14 Arizona 31, Cal 24

Cal travels to Tucson after a pratfall in Reno last week, while Nick Foles and the Wildcats are coming off a big upset win over then-number 9 Iowa. This is a matchup of two teams going in opposite directions. Cal has to bounce back, and Arizona has to keep their heads on straight in the high altitude of a fast start and a shot at the big time.

The Bears' best chance for an upset win is a steady dose of Stanford-style smashmouth, handing the ball to Shane Vereen about 30 times, but does Tedford have the courage and coaching chops to adjust his trademark pro-style offense to the reality of Kevin Riley's mediocrity? All-world middle linebacker Mike Mohamed is out, so the Bears ought to go with Vereen left and Veeren right, and Vereen on a swing pass on third down. Already this season he has 324 yards and 6 tds, including two long ones against Nevada, but Tedford oddly stopped giving him the ball in the second half, even though the Wolfpack didn't have an answer for him.

If Tedford plays Tressel ball, the Bears have a chance, but Tedford isn't that flexible. He'll have Kevin Riley throwing, and Riley will make more mistakes on the road, and UA will get to him with pressure, leading to one or two more inevitable mistakes.

Nick Foles is the real deal, 77-98 passing for 877 yards and 5 tds. Every story about him now includes the word "Heisman" somewhere in the second or third paragraph, and with three fourth-quarter comebacks and nine wins in his short career as a starter, he's starting to look stiff arm hype-worthy. If Foles and the Wildcats stay on track, they have a Nov. 6 game at Stanford and a November 26 visit to Autzen stadium to look forward to. But none of that matters if they slip up against the Bears.

Boise State 28, Oregon State 20

Duck fans would love to see the Broncos upended, but Ryan Katz is a few weeks away in his development to keep the Beavers competitive in a tough road environment. He will be a much better quarterback by week seven or week 8, and certainly by the Civil War, but right now things aren't clear enough to him. The Beavs will probably keep this game close for a while, but their lack of a pass rush and lack of offensive cohesion at this point in the season (they've only played twice) leads to them falling away at the end.

Texas 38, UCLA 10

The Longhorn defense held Texas Tech to 144 yards of offense last week, and they will have their way with Norm Chow's Pistol. The Bruins struggle for balance offensively. Johnathan Franklin, their young tailback busted loose against Houston in the Rose Bowl, but Texas will be ready for him, and Kevin Prince just hasn't found himself at quarterback. Royal stadium is a tough place to start that journey. For the Longhorns, sophomore Garrett Gilbert has completed 60% of his passes and seems to be finding his rhythm.

#16 Stanford 34, Notre Dame 21

Andrew Luck has thrown 10 touchdowns without an interception, and Notre Dame has an undermanned defense, allowing 443.7 yards per game so far. Brian Kelly has a tough task in turning around Notre Dame football, and he's not likely to make significant progress against Harbaugh's loaded merciless football team, which likes to say it wins "with character and cruelty." They'll pound the Irish, and it will be increasingly difficult for the Notre Dame faithful to stay patient.

#20 USC 31, Washington State 14

The schedule allows the Trojans to mail it in for a fourth straight week, but they have Washington, Stanford, Cal, and Oregon in October. Curiously, USC started the season at #14, but they have fallen two spots after each of their three wins. This may be one of the quietest, somber games on the college football schedule. The talent disparity is too great to make it interesting in any way, and the Trojans will continue to play the uninspired mercenary football that has brought them to 3-0. They have enough to simply outrun the Cougars, but they won't be able to hide next month.