This isn't gymnastics. Football teams don't get points for style or degree of difficulty, for finishing with a flourish or sticking the landing in the end zone. Every game gets one of two simple grades, "W" or "L". There is no Russian judge, although sometimes John Wilner votes like one.
I think Portland State will play Oregon tougher than Tennessee or New Mexico. They're giving up a lot in talent, but not as much as casual fans think. On the defensive line the Vikes feature Carl Sommer, 6-4, 260, and Travis Beckley, 6-4 285. These guys have the size and ability to play in Oregon's rotation, and they'll be fired up to prove it.
Oregon middle linebacker Casey Matthews is 6-2, 235. He had 81 tackles last season, with a high of 12 versus Purdue. Portland State mlb Ryan Rau is 6-1, 230. He had 72 tackles in 2009, along with four sacks, and a high of 12 versus Northern Arizona. The Vikings leading pass catcher last year was senior slot receiver Ray Fry, with 67 catches for 904 yards, including 10 for 146 yards against Oregon State. Last year Jeff Maehl paced Oregon's air game with 53 receptions, 696 yards. Against the Beavers he broke loose for a 73-yard scoring bomb from Jeremiah Masoli, the former Oregon quarterback and current Ole Miss spin doctor.
Of course the difference between PAC-10 ability and Big Sky ability is more than heights or weights or stats. But the point is, the Vikings aren't giving up enough to the Ducks for the Ducks to merely walk out of Cas Center and mail it in. The Portland State players aren't intimidated by a visit to Autzen stadium. They're eager for the challenge. They will play hard. The Ducks have to be ready for a football game, because the PSU players and coaching staff will bring a quality, four-quarter effort to the biggest stage they'll ever face.
If Oregon plays with purpose, depth and talent will win out, and convincingly. But all that's needed for a Va Tech-James Madison disaster is for Oregon's players to take the visitors lightly and make a 70% effort. Because the Vikings will play 15% above their perceived potential in this game.
What Duck fans must look for from the UO squad is urgency and focus. This is the last tuneup before the start of PAC-10 play, and the Oregon offense and defense must be sharp, purposeful, energized and attentive on Saturday. No dumb penalties. No missed assignments. No self-glorifying celebrations. Hand the ball to the official, act like you've been in the end zone before. Execute in all phases of the game. Win with authority. It isn't about style points; it's about a quality of effort and attention. You want to see evidence that the team is continuing to grow and stay on track.
Oregon has to win this football game. That's the goal. Chip Kelly rejected any other suggestions in his weekly press conference. But diehard fans who review the replay on Sunday should be looking at a few key barometers:
Does Darron Thomas continue to grow as a leader and a quarterback?
Duck fans want a crisp, commanding performance from their sophomore signal caller. They'll want him to look sharp, accurate and comfortable triggering the offense, on target, going through his progressions, completing his reads, picking the right spots to make plays on his own.
Thomas made great progress in week one and week two. His confidence is growing. He led a comeback on the road before an imposing crowd, made two beautiful passes for touchdowns under pressure, and kept the ball on the zone read for a big 14-yard run pinned deep in his own territory. You could see him growing in confidence. He's gained respect among his teammates, and their confidence in him has grown. He's the quarterback, the clear starter, and they can win with him. He is right on track in his development, and a solid performance in game three will be just what he needs to be ready for the road game against ASU and the October 2 showdown with Stanford.
Can the offensive line have a clean, dominating performance?
The O-line has had some early dings. Carson York, C. E. Kaiser and Mark Asper have all missed time with injuries, and the depth provided by Darrion Weems and Nick Cody has been invaluable. On the road in Knoxville the Ducks had too many penalties for holding and false starts, and Darron Thomas got hit too often.
Oregon's offense has been prolific, and the offensive line deserves loads of credit for that. Jordan Holmes in particular deserves a shout-out at center. The timing of the offense has gotten a huge boost because snaps have been flawless this year. (It helps in a lot of ways to have a taller quarterback--Jordan gets a valuable increased margin for error and there's been a huge upgrade in the downfield passing game, especially over the middle and in the seams.) The breakdowns and penalties are a nagging concern. It's hard to be critical when the team is scoring a point a minute, but the Ducks won't score half that in the PAC-10 without improved consistency from the big fellas.
On defense, does Oregon dominate with positioning, recognition and execution?
The Ducks need to allow fewer big plays and clean up the missed assignments that allowed Tennessee to break out to such a fast start. Coach Alliotti said they worked on responding to formations a ton in practice last week, but it didn't show in the first quarter. Giving up that kind of start to Arizona, Cal or Stanford could be a potential disaster.
Oregon's defense could be special this year. We've talked at length about that before, but a critical component of that development is learning to dominate games from whistle to whistle, and eliminate lapses, breakdowns and miscommunications. This is critical, because the athletes they face in weeks 4 to 13 will punish those miscues with far greater severity.
Perhaps more than any other group, the Oregon defense has to play to its vision. It isn't about dominating the statistics and producing low numbers for points and yards. The way they play on every snap is what matters.
Against Portland State, the objective isn't style points or a particular definition of lopsidedness. The objective is winning with class and focus, building constructive confidence for the rest of the year, and staying healthy. Not finishing plays and not working to full effort is the fastest route to a preventable injury. A decisive win would have the invaluable residual benefit of getting deep into the bench early and often, allowing the coaching staff to continue to develop depth and teach throughout the talented roster.
It isn't likely to be a shutout, because Portland State kicker Zach Brown, a McNary high product, has range out to the 53, with two makes at that distance in the season's first two games. If the Vikes get inside the Oregon 40 he'll get them on the board. Portland State's offense will play hard well into the fourth quarter and they're likely to produce at least one touchdown.
Preducktion: Oregon 51, Portland State 13.
No comments:
Post a Comment