The press is full of stories of their toughness, and homages to their impressive opening wins. They've intimidated opponents and rolled to one-sided victories over Sacramento State, UCLA, Wake Forest and Notre Dame.
The Ducks shouldn't be intimidated. They shouldn't even be afraid. Stanford has gained a lot of traction with attitude and a bullying posture, but take a closer look, and this is a beatable, plodding football team.
UCLA hadn't yet found itself by game two and took a beating. Wake Forest and Notre Dame are down, way down this season. The Cardinal haven't played anybody. And they haven't played anybody that could stand up to them.
Notre Dame trailed only 19-6 going in to the fourth quarter and folded. Stanford had to settle for five field goals against a mediocre Irish defense, and ND quarterback Dayne Crist tossed up a fourth quarter pick-six to pad the lead.
Andrew Luck has the bloodlines, hype and NFL measurables, but he hasn't been overwhelming operating Jim Harbaugh's offense. Here are some revealing numbers from longtime Duck antagonist Jon Wilner. Luck has benefited in the early going from second-rate competition, and he and his offense haven't been tested by an aggressive defense:
- Luck completed 74% of his passes for eight tds and no ints, against
Sacramento State and Wake Forest, which ranks 117th in pass defense. - Against UCLA and Notre Dame, he completed 53.5% of his passes with 3 tds
and 2 picks.
Luck has a good arm and great future, but what he doesn't have anymore is Toby Gerhart. The tailback committee of Stepfan Taylor, Tyler Gaffney, Usua Amanam, and Jeremy Stewart isn't anywhere near as imposing. Taylor is 5-11, 208; Gaffney is 6-1, 211. Neither is a power back, and between them they have one 100-yard rushing game on the season, Taylor's 28 carries for 108 yards against the Irish (a 3.8-yard average). He has a long run for the season of 17 yards, while Gaffney had a 32-yard burst against Wake Forest. Andrew Luck is the second leading rusher on the team with 163 yards and a 52-yard touchdown against Wake. So far this season Oregon's tandem of James and Barner have touchdown runs of 72, 40, 65, 35, 42 and 25 yards, plus Barner's 80-yard punt return and 60-yard pass reception for tds. The Ducks are faster and more explosive.
Harbaugh closes all practices and doesn't disclose injury information, so there's no update on leading returning receivers Ryan Whalen and Chris Owusu, who've been hampered by injuries all year. In their absence career journeyman Doug Baldwin leads Stanford's receivers with 12 catches for 222 yards and 3 tds, but that includes an 81-yard touchdown against Sacramento State. Taylor comes next with six catches out of the backfield for 116 yards, but that total includes a 59-yard touchdown, also in the rout over Sac State.
Oregon matches up very well against this year's Stanford offense. When you go inside the numbers, they are very containable. Luck doesn't have imposing weapons around him, and if the Ducks are aggressive, play with urgency, and complete their assignments, they can shut down this offense. They have to avoid the breakdowns and missed tackles that plagued them against Arizona State, but the Stanford offense shouldn't be able to keep pace with Oregon's, provided the Ducks assert their advantage in speed and athletic ability.
Nice post about the hype. I think we will pressure Luck more than he has faced all year. From what I have seen, he loses his composure when he has to hurry and really floats the ball. They also haven't seen a anything like the defensive speed and pursuit we bring. They may pass the test, but at least it's a test they have yet to take.
ReplyDeleteI hope the Oregon football team has the same type of thinking such as yourself.
ReplyDeleteMike,
ReplyDeleteThe Ducks prepare to a vision. They're not distracted by hype, posturing or reputation. They don't read blogs or newspapers for praise or criticism. Their motivation and pride comes from a fierce devotion to each other and to winning the day. Nothing you or I say has any power to add or detract from their ability to meet the challenge posed by the Cardinal. They'll be ready. Are you?
Thanks for writing and visiting The Duck Stops Here, and good luck on Saturday.
Best wishes,
Dale
BP--
ReplyDeleteI hope we are right, or you and I are going to look a little silly on Sunday. No one ever got to 13,000 hits a month with lukewarm analysis. Go big or go home, they say. I hope the Ducks play aggressive and bring the pressure on Saturday.
Thanks again for all your strong contributions and devoted readership.
Dale