Why Portland State is Oregon's Most Important Game of the Year

Jeff Sagarin of USA Today has Oregon ranked number 2 in the country, and has this week's opponent, the Portland State Vikings, ranked number 150. His formulas more or less predict the Ducks will win by 57, 60 if you count home field. Autzen counts. The Vegas wise guys don't take bets on FCS vs. FBS matchups, and you shouldn't either.

None of that matters at kickoff time. The score will be zero to zero, just like any other game, and if the Ducks fumble away the football and don't defend the off tackle play it could be 13-3 at the start of the second quarter, just like last week. The Vikings mauled UC Davis last Saturday in Davis, 41-33, and junior tailback Cory McCaffrey, the Sisters, Oregon product who set a state record with 8,640 yards in high school, ran for 116 yards on 15 carries. At Sisters McCaffrey was a sensation, rushing for 46 touchdowns in his senior year alone.

Despite the gaudy numbers the Ducks and Beavers passed him over three years ago. At 5-9 180 he was a notch too small and a step slow for the big time, and he didn't get a look. Neither did many of his teammates, and on Saturday they will be anxious to show Oregon and the rest of the PAC-10 coaches what they missed out on. They'll be undermanned but fired up. Their two best players, linebacker Ryan Rau and wide receiver Ray Fry, who had 67 catches for 904 yards last season, will be particularly motivated to lead an improbable upset, like James Madison 21, Va Tech 16 last week, or 2007, when Appalachian State stunned overrated (number five at the time) Michigan 34-32.

I wouldn't bet on it, but the point remains. Any game is losable, and any game, particularly an early season game, can do damage to a team's progress if they take a lackadaisical attitude or fail to prepare well.

Bringing us to the chief reason why this game is so important: It's the only one the Ducks play this week, and the only opportunity they have to prepare for the games that follow. While they host the Vikings, the rest of the conference are playing competitive games that will improve their teams.

Here is the PAC-10 schedule in week three:

California @ Nevada
Washington State @ Southern Methodist
#18 USC @ Minnesota
Arizona State @ #11 Wisconsin
#8 Nebraska @ Washington
Louisville @ #25 Oregon State
Portland State @ #5 Oregon
#23 Houston @ UCLA
#9 Iowa @ #24 Arizona
Wake Forest @ #19 Stanford

Oregon starts PAC-10 play with a road game to Arizona State next week, and then #19 Stanford comes to Autzen October 2nd after a trip to Notre Dame.

The point is, this week is an apparent breather, but it's immediately followed by a relentless cage match, the PAC-10 season, nine teams that are familiar with Oregon's schemes and eager to knock off the defending conference champions. And those other teams face quality opponents this week that will sharpen and define them.

Chip Kelly isn't a coach to tolerate complacency and a failure to finish, but the Ducks must give the staff their full attention this week. Their true opponent is themselves. They must play sharp and aggressive, because that is the best way to become better football players, and the best way to avoid injury. The effort they give, and the improvement they make facing a heavily outmatched opponent determines their readiness for the rest of their season.

Oregon has Stanford in two weeks, a conference contender. They have the UCLA Bruins in a month, a bad, battered and disorganized team right now, but a team loaded with talented athletes that runs the same offensive set the Ducks will see on Saturday, the Pistol formation. In 48 days UO have to be seasoned and steeled for a rematch with USC in the Coliseum. It will take a different level of effort and execution to win these games than it did to outscore New Mexico and Tennessee 120-13.

Even though they are ranked number five and rated high in a host of statistical categories, the UO players must know they have plenty to work on. They need to improve their pass protection, and efficiency in the passing game. Although they are way ahead of Masoli's numbers in weeks 1-2 of last year, they need precision and improved execution. Thomas and his 1A and 1B backfield mates can continue to refine their timing in the zone-read mesh. The Oregon offensive line must work to reduce penalties and missed assignments.

On defense, Nick Alliotti's crew has to improve their recognition and reaction to formations and keys at the line of scrimmage. They looked flat-footed and out of position in the first 20 minutes of play in Knoxville, and Tauren Poole lit them up for 162 yards in the game. Similar execution and readiness against Stanford will yield a lot worse result. Eddie Pleasant at strong safety and the Ducks' linebackers have to line up right, shed blocks and make plays in run defense, and they have to do it from the opening whistle. They can't rely on lightning to strike to give them time to regroup. Shane Vereen, Chris Polk and Dillon Baxter will bring lightning of their own.

In the nine games that follow this one Oregon will face some outstanding passing attacks, and the UO secondary has to get ready. The techniques and coverage skills that got them by versus the Lobos and Volunteers won't fly against the Cardinal, the Wildcats or the Huskies. In the weeks ahead they'll be out on the island with Jared Karstetter, Ryan Whalen, Chris Owusu, Nelson Rosario, Taylor Embree, Ronald Johnson, Jermaine Kearse, Devin Aguilar, Juron Criner, Keenan Allen, Marvin Jones, and James Rodgers. Think how motivated Aaron Pflugrad will be for next week's game in Tempe.

Arizona State quarterback Stephen Threet has thrown for 630 yards and five touchdowns already this year. Arizona's Nick Foles has Heisman numbers, 49-59 for 574 yards and 3 TDs. And that's just one state.

All week long and again on Saturday the Ducks' defensive backfield has to prepare as though they were lining up against these guys on September 18th. Because beginning in a few short days they will be, one after the other, guys with impressive numbers or great hands or 4.4 speed, guys in complex passing offenses with a series of strong-armed quarterbacks pulling the trigger. John Neal's secondary will be tested. They'll be targeted. They will see every route and combination move and isolation and fade in the playbook.

And like the rest of the Oregon team, they have to make themselves ready for the challenge. Everybody wants a piece of the champion. Their only opportunity to prepare themselves this week is Portland State. Their upcoming opponents will be sharpening their iron against Nebraska, Iowa and Wisconsin. The Ducks have a tuneup against a glorified scout team.

If they don't make the most of it, the conference could get the best of them in the weeks ahead.