PAC-10 Predictions, week 3

18-0 to start the season, but all that means is we haven't played anybody yet. This is measuring stick Saturday where the games get more difficult and the true character of teams emerges. Who learned and went to work? Who's coasting on early press clippings, or hiding glaring weaknesses behind one-sided matchups with sob sister competition? This week we find out.

Nevada 30, Cal 24: (Friday September 17th)

Off night games on the road are tricky, and the Bears have had just enough early success to be flat in this game. They are fat and happy, having filled up on mediocre competition at home in the first two weeks. I think they come in sleepy and get their hats handed to them by a Wolfpack squad that runs the Pistol offense much better than UCLA.

Arizona 37, Iowa 27:

Nick Foles puts on a one-man show in Tuscon. He throws it all over the lot, passing to set up the run, and Nic Grigsby becomes a terror as the game wears on and the Hawkeyes overplay the pass. Iowa can't keep pace in an offensive shootout, and Foles gets his first signature win, an upset over a Big Ten team that looks big and slow away from the plains.

Wisconsin 33, Arizona State 10:

ASU tried to build some confidence with two FCS matchups in Tempe to start the year, but it backfires in a big way when they suffer the shock of a trip to Madison to face a big, angry smashmouth Wisconsin team intent on cracking the national top ten.

The thinness and holes in both ASU units get exposed in this one, and Threet doesn't look nearly as promising throwing hurriedly off his back foot.

USC 30, Minnesota 24:

SC continues to underwhelm with another unconvincing win over a not-good opponent. They'll get another one next week traveling to Washington State, making the Trojans the softest 4-0 in the country before hosting Washington and traveling to Stanford as their season ramps up in October. The worst sign with the Trojans is that they appear passionless and disinterested. They're not having any fun, and don't seem to have any connection to their coach or each other. When things start going bad, they'll go really bad, but their soft, soft landing early is allowing them to conceal a lot of alarming signs under a thin veneer of pure talent. This is a soulless football team with no future. At the first sign of adversity, they'll implode.

SMU 39, Washington State 17:
The Cougs don't have enough players to contend with a home team bent on revenging last season's embarrassing loss.

Washington 31, Nebraska 23:

This is a fork-in-the-road game for the Huskies. To have the kind of season that was whispered about in Montlake over the spring and summer, Locker, Polk, Kearse, Aguilar and company have to assert themselves against a strong, powerful Nebraska team that hasn't quite jelled offensively. The Huskers rolled to lopsided wins in Lincoln over Western Kentucky and Idaho, but with dual-threat quarterback Taylor Martinez pulling the trigger they run better than they pass, and he does most of the running (picture Oregon's previous quarterback without LaMichael James or Kenjon Barner). The Huskies awake the echoes in Seattle, get up early and hang on for the win, with Polk grinding out the clock in the fourth quarter to preserve it.

Oregon State 45, Louisville 20:

Oregon State has built its little-engine-that-could reputation on games like these, looking splashy and athletic when facing the weak half of their schedule. Katz and the Rodgers brothers will roll to big days, and everyone will effusively praise the Beavers for their resilience and improvement. Mike Riley gets another inordinate round of praise for great coaching in the bounceback win

Houston 34, UCLA 13:

Keenum doesn't sit out. His head clears just in time to throw for four touchdowns and four hundred yards against the Bruins, who can't move the football enough to get their defense off the field. Fortunately this one is on the road and Coach Neuheisel won't have to issue another embarrassing on-field apology to the UCLA fans. Like the Ducks, Houston plays at a very fast tempo, averaging a play every 11 seconds. They will be relentless, and the reeling Bruins are not ready for relentless.

Stanford 51, Wake Forest 17

Harbaugh and the Cardinal had a pratfall against the Deacons last year in North Carolina, and he's a master at creating and settling scores. Andrew Luck finds his rhythm this week with a big day passing and one of his fast wideouts, Doug Baldwin or Ryan Whalen, busts out with a 200-yard day receiving in a big win down on the Farm.

After their likely 3-0 start with three dominating wins, the Cardinal travel to Notre Dame next week and Oregon on October 2nd. We'll find out very quickly if they're for real. ESPN's Kirk Herbstreit picked them to win the PAC-10. We'll see.