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Friday, September 24, 2010

Week 4 Preducktion: Oregon at Arizona State

The Ducks are finishing their morning run-through, and I'll assume the news is good.

If Barner and Paulson are running around, and Weems has mobility, the Ducks are at full strength. Oregon at full strength is more than the Sun Devils can handle, even with a diminutive wide receiver bent on avenging the family name and a head hunting linebacker bent on making a name for himself.

The storylines are just distractions: Oregon has a clear vision and a clear purpose. They'll remember to hydrate, and aren't likely to let the Arizona heat or the Sun Devil pressure cramp their style. They've faced tougher crowds, and the ASU quarterback, a stationary target, is bound to face some pressure of his own, from The Beast, The Spiderman, Zac Clark and Kenny Rowe. With the innovative pressure schemes Nick Alliotti is able to unleash from this deep, fast, athletic group, Threet will be hurried and disrupted. He won't be able to sit back. He won't be comfortable in the pocket. It will be a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad day. The Ducks will close gaps faster than the plodding Badgers, so his running game won't provide much relief. Threet has a big arm but slow feet, and Rowe and his Murderers Rowe will know just where to find him. Tenacious D will have a field day. I forecast four picks, one a bat down by The Beast, swooped up and returned for a score.

I think Oregon's defense is tired of the offense getting all the headlines. Not really, they're not an attention-hungry bunch, but it is true that one fact gets lost in all the gaudy numbers and highlight runs: Oregon has a tough, hard-hitting defense, capable of making a few plays of its own. All the talk this week has been about ASU's fearsome linebackers. They're good, and Burfict is quick and aggressive, but the Ducks are seven-deep at linebacker, and every bit as efficient as the Sun Devil group, just not as likely to commit a costly personal foul. Matthews, Clay, Kaddu, Lokombo, Littlejohn, Stuckey and Paysinger have 61 tackles between them in three games, and Eddie Pleasant, who's a linebacker in a safety disguise, has another 14. That's a lot of fierce hitting, a lot of being in the right place at the right time. They just do it without beating their chests or jumping offsides.

I think Oregon's defense gets off the plane ready to bring a little heat of their own, and things could get rashy, prickly and sweaty in the Sun Devil backfield, which produced one score of its own in the Wisconsin game. Burfict will get in a couple of shots that make his personal highlight cut-up, but the Ducks play a team defensive game that's effective and statement-worthy.

Preducktion: Oregon 31, Arizona State 13

2 comments:

  1. Great stuff, man. This is really becoming a go-to blog for this Duck fan. Well written, well thought out.

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  2. Paul,

    Thank you for the kind words, and I'm glad you like the blog. Looking forward to seeing a go-to performance from several Ducks tomorrow. I'd like to see Drew Davis break out with some catches downfield. He's been working hard, doing a great job in downfield blocking, but DT hasn't found him much yet. The Oregon receivers match up pretty well with ASU's secondary, and you have to figure they'll stack the box to try and stop LaMichael James.

    Have a great weekend,

    Dale

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