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Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Can The Ducks Run the Table? A look at the statistics and history

If they do it will be historical. The Ducks' only undefeated season came in 1916. Hugo Bezdek was coach, and they defeated Pennsylvania in the Rose Bowl 14-0 to complete a 7-0-1 season, the tie coming against the Washington Huskies at midseason.

Oregon has never been ranked higher than number two, never won a national championship in football, only won back-to-back PAC-10 football championships once, sharing the title in 2000 and 2001. They've won 11 games in a season only once, in 2001, when the Joey-Harrington Ducks went 11-1, beat Colorado 38-16 in the Fiesta Bowl and finished second in the country.

The Ducks are trending up. They won six games twice in the '70s, 8 games once in the '80s, 9 games three times in the 90's, and in the first decade of the 2000s they won 10 games four times and 11 games once.

The PAC-10 has only had two champions undefeated in conference play since 2000, USC in in 2004 and 2005, but those wins have since been vacated by NCAA penalties. UCLA went 8-0 in 1998, and ASU 8-0 in 1996, but both those schools lost the Rose Bowl.

The last undefeated, untied and unsanctioned team in the conference was 1991 Washington, which achieved a season record of 8-0, 12-0 and won the Rose Bowl.

For Oregon, the 1948 team coached by Jim Aiken was undefeated in conference play but 9-2 overall, losing the Cotton Bowl to SMU.

Nationally, there are currently 13 undefeated teams in the top 25, including Boise State and TCU who only have one or two mildly challenging games left on their schedule, and traditional powers Oklahoma, Nebraska, Ohio State, Auburn, and LSU. Michigan State and Utah are also undefeated and ranked in the top ten. If a one-loss team makes it to Glendale it will likely be from the SEC, as Alabama, South Carolina and Arkansas are all ranked in the top twelve and likely to continue advancing if the undefeateds fall. If Oregon has a stumble down the stretch, they're out of the national championship picture. It's the nature of polling that late losses are more devastating in staying near the top.

At 6-0 Oregon stands on the cusp of several historical milestones. They have a six-game parlay to greatness. These are their assets: a fierce, focused coach, who insists on daily commitment to perfect preparation, a standout running back, fast, strong, and elusive, who gets the tough yards inside but can break one for 70 on any play; a fast, deep defense, an opportunistic defense that swarms to the ball and creates turnovers, and exceptional special teams performers, game-breaking return men in Barner and Harris, a skilled punter and coverage unit that have limited opponents to 8 yards of returns for the season, and a capable placekicker.

There are a few question marks, including notorious slow starts, too many fumbles, especially on kickoff returns, and the fact that the defense has yet to assert itself, giving up too many yards and points in conference play.

But this is improvement week, and the Ducks are behind closed doors working on becoming a better football team than they have been going 6-0 against the weak half of their schedule. They know they don't have to win six in a row. They just have to win the one game that's on their schedule six times. UCLA is next, and the Bruins just suspended three starters.

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