All the advantages Stanford enjoyed over Oregon in Palo Alto last year are gone.
They don't have a bye week. They're not likely to enjoy the same fast start with early Duck turnovers and long kick returns. Oregon isn't coming off an emotional, high-profile win over USC on national TV. The Cardinal are not an unknown quantity. The game is in Autzen, on fast turf instead of overgrown grass. Toby Gerhart has moved on to the NFL, where he has 7 carries for 22 yards. Stanford can't motivate themselves claiming to be underrated or unrespected. The national press is all Lady Gaga over the Cardinal, and many pick Harbaugh's "blue collar" team to win.
Seriously, how can a team from a bucks-up place like Stanford claim to be blue collar anything?
Image and reputation don't mean anything when the whistle blows. Stanford gets enormous credit for being tough and physical, but the Ducks can play physical too. They can deliver some hits and evade some as well.
The Ducks will get better coverage this year on Doug Baldwin, Ryan Whalen and Chris Osuwu downfield, and better pressure on Andrew Luck. The Stanford running game is strong this season, but nothing like it was with Gerhart running downhill.
The Oregon defensive front must maintain containment on Luck in the pocket, keeping him from shaking loose repeatedly on the scramble. Despite the beefy offensive line they have to get some pressure on him. Stanford has allowed just one sack all season, and the Ducks need a least two tomorrow.
The Cardinal have two capable tight ends in Konrad Rueland and Colby Fleener, and strong safety Eddie Pleasant has to read his keys correctly and not fall victim to the play action pass down the middle.
Oregon's offense has to achieve better balance than it did last week. In the later stages of the ASU game they became careful and predictable, relying on the punt team and the defense to win the fourth quarter. Against a conference leader they'll have to open it up and test the Cardinal with their speed. Darron Thomas is ready for a bigger role in the offense, a bigger role in deciding the game. He's tested now, and he's met up with Andrew Luck before.
If Thomas can back Stanford off the line with some big gains in the passing game, then LaMichael James can have room to operate in the second half. A good start for the home team would ignite the crowd and disrupt Stanford's game plan. They want to run right at the Ducks and wear them down.
Stanford will move the football, but Oregon's defense is opportunistic and resilient. They'll bend occasionally but break rarely, and they can contain the Stanford offense to 24-28 points. Oregon's offense should find the end zone four times and produce one field goal, and the defense and special teams will produce one more score.
Preducktion: Oregon 38, Stanford 27.
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