The typical college football writer is weary, jaundiced and cynical, and delights in puncturing the expectations of the fan base and pointing out the flaws and failings of the team he covers. They're an adversarial lot, impervious to criticism, indifferent to passion, just wanting to pound out the column and get back to the hotel bar.
It's not like that here in Oregon. Rob Moseley, John Hunt, and Ken Goe cover the team with enthusiasm and professionalism. They are objective and impartial, but all three seem to appreciate the hard work and talent of the athletes, and convey a genuine interest in college football in their work.
Oregon fans are blessed to have three writers who are so hard-working and informative, writers that understand you can be objective without being obsessively negative. Believe me, if you had to read John Wilner or Bud Withers every day you'd recognize the difference. For the nearest local example, read Dwight Jaynes' blog. The Godfather is the king of seen-it-all, having never encountered a story he wasn't already tired of hearing about.
A sports writer can't have it both ways. If sports aren't important, why don't you get another job? True, it's the toy department of life, but the passion and sacrifice and courage displayed are genuine, and worth celebrating. Of course it's just a game. We have all week to be serious and attend to serious things. Fall Saturdays are for tailgating and screaming like fools. It's a pageant, a human drama, compelling, seeped in history and tradition. Sneer if you want, but that's the easy way out. It's the easiest thing in the world to be a detached critic and lampoon anyone who gives a damn. For some people that role is a way of life.
I wouldn't begin to put Goe and Hunt in that category. They do their job in a balanced way and both deliver a volume of top-notch information every day. They're observant, diligent and fair. Like many Duck fans I pore over their dispatches every day, and benefit from a increased knowledge and appreciation of what's going on at practice.
But their objectivity and impartiality goes out the window when they try to make predictions. In a post titled "Oregon football: The beat reporters' season predictions" Hunt and Goe take a stab at forecasting the Ducks' season:
Opponent
New Mexico Goe: W, 38-0 Hunt: W, 49-9
@Tennessee Goe: W, 20-3 Hunt: L, 24-21
PSU Goe: W, 61-7 Hunt: W, 55-7
@ASU Goe: W, 24-14 Hunt: W, 17-13
Stanford Goe: L, 21-20 Hunt: W, 44-31
@WSU Goe: W, 41-13 Hunt: W, 52-13
UCLA Goe: W, 30-10 Hunt: W, 41-17
@USC Goe: L, 16-14 Hunt: L, 33-28
Washington Goe: W, 27-17 Hunt: W, 38-27
@Cal Goe: L, 28-23 Hunt: L, 35-28
Arizona Goe: W, 31-21 Hunt: W, 42-24
@OSU Goe: L, 19-17 Hunt: L, 40-37
Several things jump out here. Both writers have the Ducks at 8-4 and going to one of the conference's minor bowls. They both predict losses to USC, Cal, and OSU on the road, and Hunt thinks Oregon will drop one early to Tennessee. Ken Goe has the prolific UO offense grounded for much of the year, managing just 14 points against the USC defense that just gave up 36 to Hawaii, a middling team in the WAC.
Oregon has averaged nearly 38 points a game for the last three seasons. They return all five starters on the offensive line, two fleet and elusive running backs and a defense that looks to be outstanding.
Objectively, 8-4 is a worst case scenario, not a season prediction. The Oregonian beat writers are bending over backwards to be pessimistic. Makes sense though, because it gets people reading and talking about it.
The Duck Stops Here is a Duck fan blog, and we don't pretend to be objective. But if the Ducks go no better than 8-4 I will walk to the Sun Bowl on foot.
I read this as well and was floored.
ReplyDeleteWith relatively untested receivers and a new QB I expect to lose a game or so we probably should win, but 4 losses??
Let's also not forget we appear to have possibly the best defense of any Duck team in history- that should make up for a rookie QB's mistakes most of the time.
My worst case scenario is an upset loss at TN and two other losses- worst case. If we win at TN, then I see us jelling very fast and becoming a force in the PAC-10 this season.
What if we go 8-4 but are playing in the Emerald Bowl? Are you still walking to El Paso on foot?
ReplyDeleteBelieve me, Nick, there is no reason to go to El Paso unless your team is playing there, on foot or otherwise.
ReplyDeleteI fully realize the Ducks could go 8-4; shoot, they could go 7-5. You can even concoct a nightmare implosion scenario where they go 5-7 or worse, but I think it's more likely they finish 9-3, 10-2 or better, and I think even Goe-Hunt know that.
In the newspaper business there's an extent to which the writers have to slice the bologna thin. They have to give themselves something to write about tomorrow. Then there's another factor: sometimes it's a better, bigger story if the news is bad. One the front page the motto is, "if it bleeds, it leads" and on the sports pages that translates to "if they lose, it's news." In the same way the Channel 2 weather team has successfully predicted 20 of the last five Portland snow storms, Goe-Hunt are preparing us for their own version of Storm Watch 2010. The Ducks going to Pasadena is the same old story. The Ducks falling down is juicy news.
Barring a series of catastrophic injuries, Oregon will compete for the conference title. I plan on taking a nice plane ride to Pasadena, and when I get there I'll buy Mr. Goe and Mr. Hunt a drink in the hotel bar.
Thanks for commenting and enjoy the season.
Dale