There are days I can't tell a Pelini from a Petrino, and just when you think you've figured that out, they land in a different place for more money. A few coaches will lose their jobs tomorrow, not officially of course, but week six is the tipping point or missed extra point that starts the internet drumbeat that turns hot seats into somber news conferences. The first BCS standings come out Sunday. Some fans will be basking in big bucks future-bowl-game glory, and others will be 0-2 in conference and turning their thoughts to midnight madness and picking out Halloween costumes.
In the PAC-10, the squared circle octagon cage match dogfight rumble is in full swing, five matchups of teams in crisis and teams emerging and teams that could go either way.
Just remember if you bet these games for money you are going against guys who know what the second string left defensive tackle had for breakfast, and how good his swim move is. I can't even spell Wade Keliikipi without looking it up on goducks.com.
Question of the day: what is it with defensive linemen named Long? Did the Long family meet at a family reunion years ago and just decide, okay, we're going to conquer the world, and we're going to do it one swim move at a time? I mean, Howie Long, Chris Long, Rien Long, Devan Long, Travis Long--that's a long list of Longs, enough for a 5-man line that could win a mantle full of Outland Trophies.
Here's a look at the PAC-10 this week. It's another shining example of how hard it is to win in this league, and why the PAC-10's nine-game conference schedule produces a true conference champion but few national powers:
(Prediction also-ran Ted Miller has a great breakdown of the historical trends in this week's matchups. For example, he notes Oregon State has won 9 of the last 11 meetings with Arizona, including four straight in Tucson. The Beavs have a 73% winning percentage in October, November and December since 2004. Good stuff, especially from a guy who's a paltry 29-9 picking the conference. The Duck Stops Here is a glittering 34-4.)
UCLA at California
The Bruins' resume is as spotty as a night security guard's with spilled coffee on it. The crumpled first page includes an embarrassing loss at Kansas State, the surprising beatdown of Houston, a laydown versus Stanford, decisive win at Texas, a lackluster escape versus Washington State. They run the ball well, 10th in the country at 262 yards a game, can't throw it, and turn it over too often. The Bears won their tuneups, got pistol-whipped by Nevada, and had a hard luck loss to Arizona in the desert 10-9. They're 0-1 in conference and in danger of having all the promise drain out of Kevin Riley's senior season.
Duck tracks decider: The Bruins turn the ball over more -.60 to +1.00 for Cal, and that's a hard habit to break on the road. Neither team has been consistent, but coming off the bye week, look for Cal to win this battle of the bears. Cal 28, UCLA 24.
Oregon State at Arizona
Neither team has run the football well, but the Wildcats defend the run much better. Oregon State has been impeccable taking care of the football despite playing a tough schedule. Their turnover margin is plus two, compared to 0 for Arizona (evenly balanced giveaways and takeaways). Arizona has ascended to ninth in the country, while the Beavs seem poised for their annual resurgence. Hard to think it will begin in the Arizona desert against a stout defense.
Duck tracks decider: The Beavs are resilient and well-coached, while the Wildcats are at home, more talented and erratically coached. An afternoon game in the desert facing a sea of red, can't see how a sophomore quarterback can continue to be flawless. Beavers suffer their first three turnovers of the year and fall to another late rally by Foles. Arizona 24, Oregon State 20.
USC at Stanford
The Trojans have less to play for with every loss, particularly because they couldn't go anywhere to begin with. Andrew Luck is missing his top two receivers. The Cardinal return home after getting their egos and title hopes bruised by a more physical Oregon Duck team at Autzen last week, while the Trojans are trying to recover from a last second loss to Jake Locker and the Huskies, the second straight upset Steve Sarkisian has pulled over his old team.
Duck tracks decider: Which team bounces back? That's easy, the team with more left to play for. A tree always thrives in its own back yard. Stanford 38, USC 27. The Trojans quit in the fourth quarter and there's an embarrassing meltdown on the sidelines, maybe between Barkley and Kiffin.
Arizona State at Washington
A true elimination game with bowl prospects at stake. Arizona State needs a win after three tough losses. They've shown scrap and pizazz but are still 0-3 against the FBS. Another conference loss and the Dennis Erickson coaching death watch begins.
The question you've got to ask yourself regarding the Huskies is, will they build momentum after their big win, or come in with a fat head and a hangover after drinking too much we're-all-that tequila? The Huskies have a porous run defense, but ASU is a pass-first operation that turns the ball over too often.
Duck tracks decider: there are signs Erickson is alreay losing this team, having to bench Burfict for lack of on-field discipline. Losing wears at that nerves and creates a quick-trigger loss of poise in the face of adversity. The Huskies are finding a rhythm, and starting to believe they can compete for a postseason prize. A win takes them to 3-2, 2-0 in conference and they host Oregon State next weekend. Party on the yachts: Washington 34, Arizona State 24.
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