Week Two Preducktion: Oregon versus Tennessee

Football games often come down to stark facts. The Oregon roster is deep and experienced. The Volunteers, while proud, storied, and committed to the task of restoring a glorious program and competing in the nation's most decorated football conference, are a year or two away from having an edge in a cross-country battle like this.

But that doesn't mean this Saturday's outcome will be easy or forgone.

The Ducks could easily lose if they play without hunger or purpose. The last time they entered a legendary 100,000-seat stadium they failed. The last two times they faced a defense coached by Justin Wilcox they were embarrassed and looked slow and disorganized.

And of course there is always the possibility the Volunteers will put on an inspired performance, get a few breaks early, push out to an early lead, or have one of their young, promising players have the day where he emerges into an unstoppable star like Chuck Webb in '89 vs. Ole Miss, or freshman Kelly Washington breaking free for 256 yards receiving against LSU. His first year starting Tee Martin threw 23 straight completions against South Carolina, and beat Florida on his first try.

Sometimes great players choose a day to emerge that logic and preseason polls never accounted for. Sometimes they are touched by the stars, or lifted by a fervent crowd to a place within them they never knew. 100,000 hearts beating with one hope can do that. It is an awe-inspiring sight. Then again, Neyland Stadium is a awe-inspiring site, a venue that has seen Cal and Notre Dame and dozens of other smug and under prepared teams have a frustrating and unaccounted-for collapse.

I don't expect that from the Ducks. Chip Kelly has proven himself to be a master of discipline and daily commitment, even down to small things like the percentage of humidity in the practice facility and the decibel level of "Rocky Top" on the overhead speakers. These Ducks are good. They are proud, fast, well-organized, and they want to prove themselves on a national stage. They want a coming out party of their own, to prove New Mexico wasn't just bad competition having a bad day, and that last year's Rose Bowl was not the ceiling of their potential. They want to prove they can compete with schools with great reputations and conferences known for speed, athleticism and ferocity. They want to represent. They will.

Here are some key factors in Saturday's game:

Noise and an unfriendly crowd has its deepest impact on an inexperienced offensive line.

This week Chip Kelly said in his weekly press conference, "This isn't our first time to the rodeo. We've been to the Rose Bowl, we've been to Michigan. Our players want to play in big games like this. We love this kind of challenge."

For their Oregon careers, the returning Duck two-deep on the O-line has 85 total starts, and the starting five accumulated 63 of 65 available starts last season. By themselves numbers mean nothing, but this group has achieved a high degree of cohesion and execution. They can anticipate each other and work as a unit under high degrees of stress. They have formed a corps.

Justin Wilcox will have his defense stunting, looping, crashing, and scraping, and he will change up often, but these five, Bo Thran, Carson York, Jordan Holmes, Mark Asper and C.E. Kaiser, will handle the pressure and the scheme. They are the key to the game, more than any other unit. If they create running lanes for LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner, the Oregon offense can maintain the productivity and breakneck tempo they've brought to stadiums all over the west coast.

The Ducks enjoy a significant advantage in depth in this group. Darrion Weems and Nick Cody have plenty of experience and can play multiple positions along the front, and the other backups, Ramsen Golpashin, Everett Benyard III and Max Forer, have had enough time in the program to know their assignments and contribute, a critical element in a hot, humid game on the road. In all the Ducks return nine of ten players from the two deep they fielded in last year's rivalry games versus Oregon State and Washington.

Duck tracks: The Oregon offensive line will dictate tempo and win at the line of scrimmage. Tennessee has some long, fast, athletic players along their defensive front, most notably defensive end Chris Walker, and a stout run plugger in DT Montori Hughes, but their bench is thin, and the Vols don't have the necessary rotations, particularly for the second half. With the Ducks' fast no-huddle pace, the Volunteers will start with great energy but wear down.

Key Stat: If Oregon runs for 250 or more yards, this will be a long day for the Tennessee faithful, and a decisive win for the visitors.

Key question: Can John Neal's relatively untested and sometimes suspect secondary run stride for stride with the Volunteers's cadre of tall, fast, highly sought-after receivers? Will Coach Derek Dooley put the ball in Matt Simms' hands and trust his talent and pedigree, or will the Vols try to pound it out and take the air out of the ball?

I think their best chance is to sling it. The Ducks run defense held Brandon Sain to 45 yards, and JacQuizz Rogers to 64. Defensive coordinator Nick Alliotti predictably commits to stopping the run, and significantly failed last season in doing that only against Toby Gerhart, and he was the most relentless power back in the country operating of a formidable smash mouth offense. The UT tandem of Tauren Poole and David Oku are fast and shifty but not built in the mold of Gerhart. Oregon pursues sideline-to-sideline, and the Tennessee faithful will have a frustrating day if Coach Dooley has Simms handing off 40-45 times. That strategy will play right into UO's strength.

Preducktion: Oregon 34, Tennessee 24